- Moving the markets
The markets had a case of the Mondays, as they dipped after five weeks of gains. But they didn’t give up easily and bounced back in the afternoon to minimize the damage.
While stocks were having a hard time, bitcoin and gold were having a party in overnight trading. Bitcoin soared past $41,000 to hit a 19-month high, while gold reached its highest level ever before dropping during the day.
Monday’s moves were a sign of caution after a strong run in the market. Tech stocks took a hit, with Nvidia, Alphabet and Meta all losing more than 2%.
The market rally since late October was fueled by traders betting that the Fed will cut interest rates next year. They kept this belief last week even as Fed Chair Jerome Powell tried to cool them down, saying it’s too early to think about easing policy. In other words, they ignored him.
Weak economic data, such as US factory orders falling the most since Covid lockdowns, dragged the Citi Economic Surprise index lower, as financial conditions turned sour in October and never recovered.
Bond yields rose from Friday’s low, with the 2-year jumping 14 basis points, while the dollar ran faster.
We also found out that Nvidia, the Wall Street tech darling, filed paperwork to sell 370,000 shares held by insiders, despite their stellar 3rd quarter earnings.
What do they know that we don’t? Or are we heading for an AI bust, as this chart suggests?
2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.
If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The markets started the day with a drop, but they recovered in the afternoon and ended up with only small losses. TTIs barely moved, and we still have a positive outlook.
This is how we closed 12/04/2023:
Domestic TTI: +4.43% above its M/A (prior close +4.38%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
International TTI: +4.20% above its M/A (prior close +4.61%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.Contact Ulli