ETF Tracker Newsletter For December 30, 2016

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ETF Tracker StatSheet

Market Commentary

Year End Resistance


[Chart courtesy of]
  1. Moving the Markets

For sure, I thought there would have been a last minute attempt at reaching the much talked about 20k Dow level during this last trading week of 2016, but it did not happen.

Actually, the post election momentum reversed with the S&P 500 declining for a third consecutive session but managed to gain 9.5% for the year thanks to Fed intervention back in February and mid-year during the Brexit drop.

Of course, the Trump pump in the face of rising interest rates helped the indexes big time, but it remains to be seen if there is any staying power once Trump takes over on January 20th when underlying economic realities are certain to surface along with the fact that his ambitious plans may run into opposition even within his own party.

Despite the market euphoria of the past 6 weeks, our main directional indicator, the Domestic TTI, see section 3 below for the latest update, did not play along by advancing only modestly indicating a lack of conviction due to a rising interest rate environment, which will eventually be negative for equities. Be sure to stay tuned for the latest updates as the New Year gets underway.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year. Please note that the current ETF selections will be updated as of 1/3/2017.

Here are the 10 candidates:


The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:


Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) slipped this week as the S&P 500 appears to have run into overhead resistance for the time being.

Here’s how we closed 12/30/2016:

Domestic TTI: +0.91% (last Friday +1.24%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +1.80% (last Friday +2.20%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Happy New Year!


Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



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