Upward momentum continued powered solely by hopes of a major QE program announcement by the Fed today 2:15 pm EST. The S&P 500 added some 2.6% since last week’s ETF Model Portfolio report, which puts it at a level that is only 4% off the highs YTD.
There is nothing else that has contributed to this rise as just about all recent economic data points were downright negative, which has supported hope of more stimulus to come.
It will be interesting to see if the Fed delivers to the magnitude that is expected and priced in by the markets. If they fall short, and don’t meet these elevated expectations, the major indexes will shift into reverse in a hurry. Stay tuned for today’s market commentary.
Take a look at the latest model portfolio update:
1. ETF Trend Tracking Model Portfolio
[Click on any table to enlarge]
This is the portfolio allocation I have used predominantly in my advisor practice during the first half of 2011. Given those market conditions, and an ever growing number of global hotspots, I liked the concept of having a solid core holding in PRPFX, although we got stopped out in 2011 as a result of the wild market swings along with a sharp pullback in the metals.
Around this fund, when in buy mode, I add what I call boost components consisting of ETFs that can produce higher returns than my core holding, at least during bullish periods. When a market pullback occurs, the core holding should add an element of stability.
Nevertheless, as you know from my writings, anything I invest in involves the use of trailing sell stops, which are shown and tracked on the upper right of the table.
2. Conservative ETF Growth Portfolio
This portfolio, as are the following ones, would be typical of what is being used in the buy-and-hold community, as you can see by the 40% allocation to various bond ETFs. If you are conservative, this simple combination could work for you, but I still recommend the use of the trailing sell stops during these uncertain times.
3. Aggressive ETF Growth Portfolio
What makes this one aggressive is the small 15% allocation to bonds. If you have an aggressive streak in your personality, you could consider this one. If you use my recommended sell stop discipline, you know exactly ahead of time what your downside risk will be.
4. Moderate ETF Growth Portfolio
I call this one moderate growth, because of the higher allocation to various bond ETFs (27%) than in the aggressive set up above. It is also more diversified domestically.
5. ETF Income Portfolio
This is as simple as it gets, but during last year’s sell-off, it dropped in value quickly due to no offsetting bond positions and showed a 0% invested balance by August 2011.
It’ll be interesting to see if this simple combination can withstand the vagaries of the market place in 2012.
6. The Ivy ETF Portfolio
If you missed the recent post about the Ivy portfolio, you can read it here.
This is a simple 5-asset class portfolio with each individual component being bought when it crosses its respective trend line to the upside. Each component is being sold once it crosses its trend lines to the downside again, according to the author’s rules.
I have made 3 adjustments:
1. I apply a 39-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) to generate the Buys, while the authors use a 45-week SMA.
2. As mentioned in the blog post, I prefer using my trailing sell stop discipline for my exit strategy.
3. Personally. I favor using BND (as opposed to IEF) as my bond component, since it has shown more stability in the past.
Currently, only 4 out of the 5 components are positioned above their respective long-term trend lines and therefore in bullish territory. Should upward momentum improve, we may get to a 100% invested position.
7. The ETF Equivalent of PRPFX
As posted recently, I have created and back tested the ETF equivalent of my favorite mutual fund, PRPFX, which is a core holding in my #1 Portfolio. If you missed it, you can read the announcement here.
Take a look at the combination of ETFs:
Since these 8 ETFs represent only one fund, namely PRPFX, we can to apply a different exit strategy. For that purpose, I will not track the high points made for each ETF, as with the other 6 models, but measure my 7% drop from the high point this entire portfolio has made.
Alternatively, you can sell this entire portfolio once our domestic TTI has crossed into bear market territory or hold on to only those positions that are maintaining upward momentum. That solves the issue of “what to buy” if you had liquidated 100%.
(ETF trading costs are not included in these portfolios demonstrations. They are intended to show market effects on different scenarios only as an educational tool)
To repeat, the key to selecting a portfolio from the above list is not just performance. Personally, I’d rather lag a little on the upside but have some assurance that I will also lag when the downside comes into play.
I will update these portfolios every Wednesday.
Quick Reference:
Disclosure: I may have client holdings in some of the funds/ETFs discussed above
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Comments 4
I am a new subscriber to your newsletter. Where do I find the key on how to read your charts for elf’s? When you liquidate a certain fund how do I know if it was liquidated from a sell stop or a reversal when the price crossed the trendline?
Louis,
Hmmm, that information is not available anywhere. The data are designed to assist you in making better investment decisions so that you can select ETFs that are trending up and not down. Once you’ve set up a portfolio, you need to track the sell stops on your own. If it’s easier, you can also select from list of 7 ETF Model Portfolios, which are updated and posted every Wednesday.
Ulli…
Also what does the little red triangle indicate on some of the squares? And thank you for the quick reply, it is really appreciated.
Louis,
These are just personal annotations I have on my spreadsheet.
Ulli…