My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:
http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php
The bears managed to pull the major indexes off their highs and handed the bulls a solid defeat. The markets had their worst week in 4 years.
Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs still remains +1.77% above its long-term trend line (red) as the chart below shows:
The international index has now moved to +2.58% above its own trend line, as you can see below:
For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.
Comments 5
Ulli,
Regarding Monday’s market move, if a move to the downside is realized will your liquidations include any international funds?
My portfolio contains an MSCI EAFE based fund that also moved below 7% Friday but my internat. index is not yet close to a sell signal.
I’m searching for a little guidance here, as you probably are already aware most international funds must have sell orders in by 2:00pm for them to be effective same day.
G.H.
G.H.
Any fund/ETF that has pierced its 7% sell stop (or 10% in the case of sector and country funds/ETFs) will be liquidated on Monday.
I will look first to see how the market opens, and if it is strongly to the upside, I may hold my sell orders for those funds/ETFs only that are nibbling at their sell stop and have barely broken through it, such as -7.15%.
All others will be liquidated. Keep in mind that sell stops are usually triggered before the TTI signals the liquidation of all funds. The TTI is a slower moving index and lags a little. In order not to give up too much profit, I use the sell stops as an early exit.
Ulli…
Thanks for sharing the specifics Ulli…
IMO this particular downdraft might just be significantly different in nature than Feb. ’07 or Summer ’06. I say this because a number of the funds I follow which have shown sturdy resistance to draw down in the past (only 3.5% max. during last 18 months) have hit 7% this time around, and that counts the fact that they are not heavily weighted to the financials either.
As you’ve indicated in your analysis, I’m poised to exit all holdings Monday with the lone exception of Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC). It will likely take a sell signal from the TTI index before that fund is sold.
G.H.
This weeks drop in the TTI closed the gap-up formed three weeks ago. There is still the gap-up formed early last quarter. It will be interesting to see how the market plays out.
Craig
Yes, I saw the second gap, which was closed but the one from last quarter one was not as you correctly said. I’ll be showing a chart again about that in one of the next posts.
Ulli…