03-30-2012

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, March 30, 2012

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2012/03/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-03292012/

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Market Commentary

Friday, March 30, 2012

US Equity ETFs End Best First Quarter Since 1998; JJG Surges, VXX Tanks

US stocks closed mixed Friday, with the Dow and the S&P 500 notching their biggest first quarter gains in more than a decade after better-than-expected consumer confidence and spending data boosted investor confidence.

Also a consensus over a bigger European rescue fund among the EU finance ministers in Copenhagen enhanced sentiments on the last trading day of Q1. If this turns into another pipedream remains to be seen.

Domestically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) added 0.5 percent to close at 13,212, capping a stellar three-month performance that also marked its best ever first-quarter point gain in its history. The Dow has advanced 8.1 percent in the first three months of 2012.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) climbed 0.4 percent to end the week at 1408.47, with energy, healthcare and consumer staples gaining the most.

The tech-laden NASDAQ Composite (COMP) shed 0.1 percent to close at 3091.57, still up 18.7 percent for the year.

According to the Commerce Department’s Friday report, consumer income climbed 0.2 percent while spending rose 0.8 percent. A separate survey showed business activity in the Chicago area slowed down in March, but remained over 60 percent for the fifth consecutive month.

ETFs in the news:

As grain futures pushed ahead, the iPath Dow Jones UBS Grains Subindex Total Return ETN (JJG) topped the winners list with a 6.04 percent jump. The fund recently suffered a string of losses as China growth worries hit commodities and today’s gain comes as a welcome break.

The Market Vectors India Small Cap ETF (SCIF) climbed 3.68 percent Friday, reversing its latest losing streak. The fund has been on the back-foot recently and remains an interesting watch in Q2.

As the EU finance ministers agree on bolstering the region’s rescue fund, iShares MSCI Sweden Index Fund (EWD) made a smart comeback by adding 2.51 percent on the day, reversing three days of successive losses. Nonetheless, Europe still suffers from high systemic risk and investor caution is advised.

The day’s top loser has been VXX, losing nearly 10 percent in this week alone. Better economic numbers and higher indexes mean southward journey for the fear-tracking iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX). The fund slipped 2.67 percent, down a whopping 53 percent on the year.

Alternative energy remains out of favor with the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) sliding for the second day on the trot, losing 1.78 percent.

The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index Fund (ITB) dropped 1.47 percent on the last trading day of the quarter despite clocking decent growth in the beginning of the year. This is an interesting counter to watch as experts differ on the US housing sector’s recovery. For the conservative investor, this product is best avoided.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) changed only slightly from last Friday’s position but both remain deep in bullish territory. Here are this week’s closing numbers:

Domestic TTI: +5.10%

International TTI: +5.39%

Have a great week.

Ulli…

Disclosure: No holdings

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Nile:

Q: Ulli: What’s your take on PRPFX nowadays; is it still meeting your needs and goals? Time to add or consider subtract?

A: Nile: I sold all of PRPFX last summer as it got very volatile because of the metals breakdown. For the past few months, I preferred using my model portfolios #2 and #4. Currently, PRPFX is barely hanging on by only being +1.14% above its long term trend line.

For me, it’s not under consideration right now.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, March 30, 2012

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2012/03/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-03292012/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

Friday, March 30, 2012

US Equity ETFs End Best First Quarter Since 1998; JJG Surges, VXX Tanks

US stocks closed mixed Friday, with the Dow and the S&P 500 notching their biggest first quarter gains in more than a decade after better-than-expected consumer confidence and spending data boosted investor confidence.

Also a consensus over a bigger European rescue fund among the EU finance ministers in Copenhagen enhanced sentiments on the last trading day of Q1. If this turns into another pipedream remains to be seen.

Domestically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) added 0.5 percent to close at 13,212, capping a stellar three-month performance that also marked its best ever first-quarter point gain in its history. The Dow has advanced 8.1 percent in the first three months of 2012.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 03/29/2012

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, March 29, 2012

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +5.09%. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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Major Market ETFs End Mixed On Weak Data; VXX Drops Slightly, GAZ Runs Out Of Gas

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

The Dow staged a late-session comeback to break a two-session losing streak even as US stocks ended mixed Thursday.

A raft of weak economic numbers, including a higher-than-expected jobless claim, soured investor sentiments driving both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 lower for the second day in a row.

Strong demand for Treasuries pushed yields down as investors rushed to seek refuge in safe-haven assets as European debt worries continue to spook markets.

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Equity ETFs Extend Losses On Global Growth Jitters; VXX Zooms, GDXJ Sinks

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Equity ETFs extended losses Wednesday after US durable goods orders came in weaker than expected, fueling global growth worries.

Commodities took a big hit with copper and oil roughly falling by 2 percent while gold lost more than a percent as investors dumped energy and materials related stocks.

Treasuries tumbled for the second day as demand for US debt hit the lowest mark in seven months with investors questioning if another round of quantitative easing may be on the table by the Federal Reserve.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 3/27/2012

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

Thanks to Bernanke’s equity boost last Monday, the major market ETFs rallied strongly interpreting his words as continued loose monetary policy, which is supposed to bode well for equities.

Since last Wednesday’s update, the S&P 500 added another 0.5% increasing the YTD gains. While that may give many investors the warm fuzzies, I believe that continued manipulation of interest rates, and equities as well, will not end well, as economic reality has been removed from the equation, and we have entered unchartered territory.

Right now, things are going well, but sooner or later we will have to face some unintended consequences. Again, let me be the voice of reason by asking you to not forget my recommended exit strategy. The day will come, when it will be sorely needed.

Here’s the latest ETF Model Portfolio update:

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