7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 5/8/2012

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

What a difference a week makes. The S&P 500 ran into a brick wall as a result of the poor jobs report and the fallout from the elections in Greece and France. Since last week’s ETF Portfolio report, the index slumped some 3% with our conservative models losing to a lesser degree.

Our energy sector holding VDE (Portfolio #3) dropped below its predetermined sell stop point of 10% and was sold on Monday. Yesterdays down move pushed the more volatile ETFs VEU and GLD below their respective stop loss points as well, but only barely. I want to see more downside piercing before pulling the trigger in those sectors.

So far, this year is shaping up to be an exact repeat of 2010 and 2011, where the initial upside burst petered out and downside momentum was only halted later in the year due to the Fed’s stimulus initiatives. Will we see a threepeat? It’s too early to tell at this time.

Here’s the latest update:

Read More

Equity Markets Celebrate A Delayed “Sinko De Mayo;” Fear Of Greece Exit From EU Spooks US Stocks

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US equities sank Tuesday as the Greek political uncertainty continued to haunt markets though major indexes managed to cut losses and clawed back to recoup earlier losses. Good thing, because for a while serious downside prospects loomed very large.

As Athens struggled to form a coalition government, Treasury yields sank to a three-month low as demand for the world’s safest securities spiked at a three-year US note auction.  The bid-to-cover ratio, a gauge of investor demand for securities on offer, was recorded at a robust 3.65 at the $32 billion 3-year notes auction as Greece faced the real prospect of a default by an advanced economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed down 76.44 points, recovering smartly from the 198 points drop during the day’s trade. All but 5 components of the 30-component blue-chip index closed lower.

Read More

US Equity ETFs Vacillate As Blue-Chips Retreat; INXX Soars, VXX Tanks

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US equities wavered Monday with the blue-chip Index closing lower while the broader markets gained modestly as investors remained uncertain about the European debt crisis following the outcome of French and Greece elections.

Yield on 10-year notes continues to trade at three-month lows as investors continue to buy world’s safest assets in an increasingly uncertain environment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) retreated 0.2 percent with 17 of the 30 components of the blue-chip index ending in the negative territory. PC maker Hewlett-Packard Co (HPQ) was the biggest loser while Bank of America Corp (BAC) and Walt Disney Co (DIS) surged in a choppy trading day.

Read More

ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 5/4/2012

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 309 (last week 354) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 58 ETFs (last week 73) have managed to move into in bullish territory after the recent run up.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 789 (last week 817) above the line and 72 below it out of the 861 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 5/6/2012

Ulli Market Review Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 5/6/2012.

The feared jobs report turned out worse than expected pointing to an economy that is muddling along at best but certainly not growing as it should considering the trillions of dollars that were spent over the past few years.

Not helping matters were weak economic news out of Europe with most of the eurozone member countries now having slipped officially into a recession. With this weekend’s elections in France and Greece looming large, the bulls simply assumed the fetal position for the time being and let the bears have a few days of fun.

This week, we covered the following:

Read More

April Jobs Data Disappoints; Time For Another Round Of QE?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

The Friday US jobs numbers disappointed big time. Does this mean the Fed will initiate another round of Quantitative Easing?

According to Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at RBC Capital Markets, this job number alone is unlikely push the Fed to the edge. Ben Bernanke has made it clear that the Fed would prefer not to initiate another round of assets purchase, especially for an economy that’s not gaining momentum.

Post FOMC meeting, Bernanke had said he would expect the economy to add 150,000-200,000 jobs; a pretty modest range. After Friday’s release, the average comes to 135,000, failing to cross an already low barrier.

The manufacturing jobs came in at 16,000, lower than the estimated 22,000. However, manufacturing, which contributes 10 percent to the economy, is unlikely to slow down the recovery alone.

Read More