US, Japan Stocks Look Good From Valuation And Growth Perspective

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Much have debated over the US job data for March and whether the growth momentum can be sustained. Analysts have predicted a pull back of up to 10 percent before markets rebound.

John Vail, chief global strategist and head of asset allocation of Nikko Asset Management in Tokyo thinks US job growth is robust and one weak month doesn’t indicate a trend reversal.  Also, there has been a big seasonal adjustment in the job market, affecting March data. The weather, especially the unusually warm recent months, played a big role in slowing down the job growth.

The important development is that the US stock market boomed in the first quarter of 2012, precisely the same time when people were talking of the Eurozone breaking up. The situation in Europe has flared up again, as Spain failed to meet its budget deficit targets.

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Looking For ETF Investment Opportunities As The Markets Experience A Pull-Back?

Ulli Market Review Contact

The stock markets have done remarkably well thus far this year with the S&P 500 index posting its best quarter since 1998, soaring more than 12 percent in the past three month, which can certainly be called an aberration supported by excess liquidity and artificially low interest rates.

The markets, however, witnessed a pull back this week, triggered by the FOMC minutes first. Later the ghosts of Europe returned to haunt investors as yields on Spanish debts jumped. The country struggled to sell medium-term notes on Wednesday and managed to raise €2.6 billion from the auction; closer to the bottom of its €2.5-€3.5 billion target.

The Spanish debt-problem has been attracting some attention and there has been an increased chatter over the Greek saga getting repeated again. The country needs to refinance debts worth €370 billion over the next three years, and sharp spending cuts announced by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has fuelled speculations of the country witnessing widespread social unrest.

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04-06-2012

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, April 6, 2012

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2012/04/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-04052012/

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Market Commentary

Friday, April 6, 2012

MARCH PAYROLLS REPORT TRAILS FORECAST; BERNANKE’S JOBS WARNING COMES TRUE

The US economy’s expansion came under threat as hiring by American employers trailed most pessimistic forecasts in March. Employers added 120,000 jobs in March, the fewest in five months, proving the Federal Reserve chairman right who had warned of slower payroll growth last month.

Manufacturing, one of the key drivers of recovery, cooled in March with the ISM reading tumbling to 53.4 from a high of 59.9 in the beginning of 2011. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.2 percent from 8.3 percent in the prior month.

Private payrolls climbed a meager 121,000 in March following the addition of 233,000 jobs in Feb. Manufacturing jobs however, grew by 37,000 after a 31,000 growth, despite the ISM reading tumbling for the month.

Average work week declined to 34.5 hours from 34.6 while average weekly earnings dropped to $806.96 from $807.56.

With today’s report, the Fed is not likely to change the benchmark interest rate, currently hovering around zero percent. However, it’s also unlikely to trigger new asset purchases via quantitative easing when the policy makers meet next on April 24-25.

On the other hand, if the weak trend continues through April and May, a case for added monetary stimulus may/will be made not only during the June FOMC meeting, but would also be loudly supported by Wall Street’s players, who can’t wait to get the punch bowl back.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) headed south from last Friday’s position, but both remain deep in bullish territory. Here are this week’s closing numbers:

Domestic TTI: +4.63% (last week +5.10%)

International TTI: +3.76% (last week +5.39%)

Have a great week.

Ulli…

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Jack:

Q: Ulli: Could you please explain the difference between a ‘buy’ and a ‘selective buy?’ You use these terms in your weekly StatSheet, but I can’t seem to find an explanation.

A: Jack: A ‘buy’ refers to all broadly diversified domestic and international funds/ETFs that are tied into the Domestic and International TTI (Trend Tracking Index) as a guide for making buy/sell decisions.

In the case of Country/Sector ETFs, a TTI does not exist, so ‘buy’ decisions will need to be made once each individual ETF crosses its respective trend line to the upside. Some may do that sooner, thereby generating a buy signal quicker, while others may lag; hence the term ‘selective buy.’

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, April 6, 2012

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2012/04/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-04052012/

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Market Commentary

Friday, April 6, 2012

MARCH PAYROLLS REPORT TRAILS FORECAST; BERNANKE’S JOBS WARNING COMES TRUE

The US economy’s expansion came under threat as hiring by American employers trailed most pessimistic forecasts in March. Employers added 120,000 jobs in March, the fewest in five months, proving the Federal Reserve chairman right who had warned of slower payroll growth last month.

Manufacturing, one of the key drivers of recovery, cooled in March with the ISM reading tumbling to 53.4 from a high of 59.9 in the beginning of 2011. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.2 percent from 8.3 percent in the prior month.

Private payrolls climbed a meager 121,000 in March following the addition of 233,000 jobs in Feb. Manufacturing jobs however, grew by 37,000 after a 31,000 growth, despite the ISM reading tumbling for the month.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 04/05/2012

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, April 5, 2012

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +4.77%. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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US Stocks End Mixed; VXX Rallies On Fear, EWO Tanks

Ulli Market Review Contact

US stocks ended mixed Thursday with the broad market ETFs retreating for the third successive day in a shortened week, as worries over Spanish debt crisis returned to haunt Wall Street.

All the indices closed lower for the week despite better weekly claims data ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls reading for March. As equities sank, US Treasuries marched ahead for the second day in a row as rumors over worsening Eurozone debt crisis triggered demand for safe-haven US debts.

As demand for French debts wilted prices of ten-year US Treasuries jumped to their highest two-day level since January. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) slipped 0.1 percent to 13,060.1, down 1.2 percent over last Friday.

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