ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, June 1, 2012

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2012/05/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-05312012/

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Market Commentary

Friday, June 1, 2012

QE3 POSSIBILITY GOES UP AS ECONOMY SHOWS SIGNS OF SLOWDOWN; GDXJ SHINES, ITB TUMBLES

On the first trading day of June, US stocks plummeted by over 2 percent Friday to register the worst day of 2012 with the Dow slipping into the red, wiping off gains for the year after a Labor Department report showed fewer jobs were added than anticipated.

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are off more than 10 percent from the year’s highs, moving into the so-called correction territory, as investors sought refuge in gold and Treasuries. Yield on 30-year bond dropped to record lows after the May reading of ISM Manufacturing Index dropped to 53.5 against an estimated 54.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted 2.2 percent to 12,118.57, the biggest one-day drop since November. The index wiped off all the gains for 2012, trading nearly 100 points lower than the start of the year. All of its 30 components closed lower for the day.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 05/31/2012

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, May 31, 2012

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +2.17%. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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US Stocks End Lower As Major Market ETFs Lose Six Percent In May; TLT Rises, USO Dips

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US stock indexes extended losing their streak Thursday, dropping to their lowest levels since 2010 with the blue-chip Dow halting its winning streak in May. Investor sentiment sank following a report from payroll-services firm ADP that showed US companies added fewer jobs in May than the forecasted 157,000. At 133,000, unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 8.1 percent in May.

US Treasuries rallied on fears that the economy is slowing down after as latest data showed the number of people filing for first-time unemployment benefits rose more than expected. Yields on Five-, seven-, and 10-year securities slipped to fresh all-time lows, as demand for safe haven assets spiked amid fears that the European crisis is deepening.

The benchmark 10-year yield cut losses after a report suggested that the International Monetary fund started discussions on contingency plans to save Spain’s banking industry while support for Greece’s pro-bailout party increased. At this point, it’s all chatter about a Spain bank rescue, but we will know soon if there are hard facts backing up the rumor mill.

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US Stocks Slide As Spanish Storm Looms; ZROZ Soars,

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US stocks ended in the red Wednesday, losing more than one percent after reports suggested that the European Central Bank has rejected the recently nationalized Bankia group’s bailout plea.

The ECB issued a statement Wednesday stating it was not consulted and can’t recapitalize Spain’s fourth largest bank. US Treasuries soared as investors sought refuge in safe haven assets amid growing European turbulence.

Spanish and Italian bond yields soared as markets remained jittery over Spain’s ability to bail out its banks that may cost Madrid €100 billion.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 5/29/2012

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The prior week’s loss of 1% was made up yesterday as the markets rebounded by 1.1% since last Wednesday’s ETF Model Portfolio report.

Fundamentally nothing has changed other than that the ECB was expected to reveal some new secret potion on Tuesday designed to solve the issues that ail Europe. Of course, this was based on nothing but rumors and the usual amount of hope.

In the end, the markets managed to hang on to most of the gains, although volume was the lightest of the year, which makes that rebound suspect.

Our models inched higher with the markets; however, gains were less than the S&P 500’s due to our reduced equity exposure.

Here’s the latest update:

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Equity ETFs Rebound On Week’s First Trading Day; CHIM Vaults, VXX Tanks

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

As recent polls suggested that Greece is moving towards honoring its commitments ahead of next month’s elections, US stocks rose one percent Tuesday even as US consumer confidence reading dropped unexpectedly in May and home prices dipped further.

Sentiment was buoyed further as investors hoped that central banks globally would provide further stimulus and China would intervene to support its slowing economy. Sure, if there are no facts, rumors will do—anything to prop up the markets.

US Treasuries wavered as reports from Spain suggested Bankia may require €23.5 billion in bailout money versus an initial estimate of €19 billion. Nor surprise there, as all reports need to be taken with a grain of salt.

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