Ulli... The ETF Bully

ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 3/2/2012

Ulli Monday, 5 March 2012, 6:01 AM ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 365 (last week 360) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 80 ETFs (last week 79) have managed to move into in bullish territory after the recent run up.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 818 (last week 815) above the line and 43 below it out of the 861 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 3/4/2012

Ulli Sunday, 4 March 2012, 8:11 AM Market Review Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 3/4/2012.

The major indexes drifted sideways but maintained their slightly upward bias from the prior week.

I would expect this churning to continue until a new driver emerges to push this market higher. A host of upcoming economic reports may influence market direction, but for sure Friday’s unemployment numbers are bound to make a statement.

If they turn out to be disappointing, we may see the long awaited pullback. Should they show further improvement, however, this could ignite upward momentum and push the major market ETFs further north.

This week, we covered the following:

The Economic Indicators Continue To Impress, Time For Celebrations?

Ulli Sunday, 4 March 2012, 6:01 AM Market Commentary Contact

Data released by the government this week indicates the economy has started performing and the ghost of the subprime crisis has been (allegedly) buried at last. The confidence in the economy has been reinforced to some degree by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s refusal to initiate another round of quantitative easing (QE3). Is the economy on a true recovery path? Can we look forward to a better year in 2012 with a healthy GDP expansion as economic indicators continue to show resilience?

If Wall Street Journal Reporter Ben Casselman is to be believed, the recovery has started. The initial jobless claim is trending downwards for several weeks now and currently stands at 8.3 percent. Developments in the jobs market will continue to indicate an economic recovery. The jobless claims and the number of jobs added, though correlated, sometimes tend to travel in opposite directions. While the jobless claims number tells us if people are losing jobs, they don’t tell us if new jobs are being created.

Sometime last year we had witnessed new jobs being created, but the jobless claims never really came down. So it was not clear if people were simply leaving the job market rather than finding new jobs. The difference this time is that job growth appears to have been consistent according to reports and some 900,000 new jobs have been added in the last five months. Though this number is not definitive, it still indicates that the job market is getting healthier.

Weekly Round-Up: Indexes Trading At Multi-Year Highs, Fundamentals Looking Better; Europe And Energy Prices Worry

Ulli Saturday, 3 March 2012, 6:06 AM Market Review Contact

US markets lost some of the sheen on Friday though performance for the week remained steady. Most of the indexes are either at a multi-year high or at sniffing distance from them. Commodities got some pounding though during the week.

Energy had started off the week on a high with oil hovering around $110 a barrel, a multi-month high. By the end of the week however, prices were down at $106.68 per barrel, a loss of 1.9 percent over the earlier weekly close. The Energy sector also fared worst among all other sectors for the week, shutting shop 1.1 percent lower.

Equity indices hogged the limelight this week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 hitting their highest levels since 2008. The tech-heavy NASDAQ sizzled, printing its highest level since 2000 during the week’s trading. The NASDAQ briefly flirted with the 3,000, unable to hold on to the psychological level. The DJIA similarly kissed the 13,000 mark, but ended the week a tinge lower, unable to hold on to the gains.

The possibility of a pull-back can’t be ruled out in the coming days with many analysts pointing towards a rally-fatigue. US non-farm payroll is due in the next week and another solid number will consolidate the gains.

Though oil finished the week lower, commodities got a raw deal this week with the CRB Index tumbling 1 percent on Friday itself. For the week however, the losses added up to a relatively modest 1.5 percent.

03-02-2012

Ulli Friday, 2 March 2012, 5:17 PM Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, March 2, 2012

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2012/03/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-03012012/

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Market Commentary

Friday, March 2, 2012

U.S. INDEXES SNAP WINNING STREAK; XLE SLUMPS AS OIL SINKS; GAZ BURNS BRIGHT

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) snapped a three week winning streak as indexes closed lower on Friday.

Treasuries advanced for the first time in four days, as risk was off the table amid worries that measures to boost lending in the EU region and priming the region’s banks with excess liquidity will not spur growth.

The European Central Bank said overnight deposits touched record levels after the second round of LTRO on Wednesday, indicating banks are still worried about lending and prefer depositing the cash with ECB. The Fed purchased $1.97 billion in long-term securities Friday as part of Operation Twist.

There were also reports of the Federal Reserve and Wall Street banks locking horns over retaining rights on storage facilities for physical commodities such as warehouses, underground oil tanks etc. This is an important development that may result in the Fed either allowing banks more freedom in trading physical commodities, or force them to sell off storage assets altogether, dealing another blow after curbing trading with new rules.

US stocks ended marginally lower today. Energy firms led the slide among S&P 500 Index’s (SPX) 10 major sectors, as oil fell below $107 a barrel on EU growth worries. The week has witnessed multiple milestones and indices touched highs not seen since summer of 2008.

This is the Dow’s first weekly decline in three weeks.

The S&P 500 however, edged higher for the eighth time in the past nine weeks, although the index was down 0.3 percent to 1,369.63 on the day, after President Obama urged the Congress on Thursday to end $4 billion in subsidies to oil firms in an effort to check budget deficits.

The tech-laden NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) lost 0.4 percent to end the week at 2,976.19. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished the week higher for the fourth straight week despite today’s losses.

As worries over Europe persisted, the US 10-year yield fell 0.05 percentage point, or 5 basis points, to 1.98 percent. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) was up 0.20 percent over yesterday, while the iShares Barclays 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) rose 0.93 percent for the day.

In the ETF space, the iPath Dow Jones UBS Natural Gas Subindex Total Return ETN (GAZ) made a spectacular comeback and added 6.4 percent on the day after getting hammered in the last couple of days. The gains on this ETN were, however, attributed to its massive premium.

The Guggenheim China Small Cap Index ETF (HAO) managed to move in the green territory after languishing for the last two days and added a modest 1.1 percent. This small-cap option is suited to investors looking to tap the burgeoning Chinese middle-class. I don’t track it yet in my weekly StatSheet yet, due to its fairly low volume.

Among the losers, the United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) tanked today and lost 2.2 percent after having gained over the past two days.

Energy producers were out of favor too, and the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) slid nearly 2 percent during the day’s trading.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) remained solidly in bullish territory with the Domestic TTI being on the plus side by +5.36% while the International TTI hovers at +5.32%.

With the markets having ascended literally in a straight line, this is not the time to be complacent. Changes in trend direction can occur quickly given the volatile investment climate we are living in. Even though I have not mentioned it in a week or so, you still need to be alert and have your exit strategy in place. Doing without can be hazardous to your financial health.

Have a great week.

Ulli…

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Doug:

Q: Ulli: In the Friday February 24 post you mention the “RSX” ETF was up 4.5 percent! Since you issued an international buy signal, I have been nibbling at country funds and have search for a quote on “RSX” I find two, one is “index nasdaq:rsx @$159.20” and the second “nysearca:rsx @$33.37!” Which one are you following?

A: Doug: I am only aware of one RSX, and that is the second one you mentioned.

As an aside, remember country funds/ETFs run on their own cycle and are a ‘Buy’ whenever they cross their individual trend lines. They are NOT tied to the International TTI, which covers only “broadly diversified international funds/ETFs.”

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/