ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, August 3, 2012

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2012/08/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-08022012/

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Market Commentary

Friday, August 3, 2012

AFTER FOUR DAYS OF LOSSES, US EQUITIES RALLY ON IMPROVED JOBS DATA; EWI FLIES, VXX CRASHES

US equities rallied for the second straight session Friday following a forecast-beating July jobs data report that indicated a gradual but robust healing of the jobs market. The Dow Industrials extended its longest weekly winning streak this year amid speculations the European Central Bank will soon restart its bond purchase program to bring down high Spanish and Italian borrowing costs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surged 217 points to 13,096, its fourth up week in a row. 27 of the 30 components within the blue-chip index advanced, ending the week higher 0.2 percent.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) climbed 26 points to 1391 with financials leading the gainers and telecommunications lagging among its 10 business groups. This was a welcome reprieve after 4 days of losses with traders hanging their hat on the positive spin of the employment numbers forgetting for the moment that the market driver of the recent past, namely QE hopes, may have just vanished for the time being.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/02/2012

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, August 2, 2012

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +2.20%. A break back below it will generate a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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Draghi Drags Down Major Indexes—Confirms He Is ‘All Hat And No Cattle;’ KWT Rallies, UNG Slips

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US major indexes extended their losing streak for the fourth straight day Thursday after the European Central Bank failed to deliver on its earlier pledge to halt a further decline of the ongoing sovereign debt crisis.

ECB president Draghi, who last week single handedly ignited a rally in equities with talk of upcoming bazooka like actions, retreated today by announcing….no action at all. Given his chest pounding speech of last week, he now has cried ‘wolf’ one too many times and may very well have lost his credibility in the process.

This really should come as no surprise to you, as European policticians have refined the art of holding countless meetings and summits over the past year without accomplishing a thing.

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Fed Disappoints—US Stocks End Marginally Lower; ECB And Unemployment Numbers On Deck; USO Rises, URA Sinks

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US stocks ended marginally lower Wednesday as the Federal Reserve decided to hold back another round of asset purchases to boost the economy.

Traders had priced in a Fed move to support the market’s lofty levels even though eight of ten economists surveyed by Bloomberg News were negative on the Federal Reserve initiating further quantitative easing before the next round of FOMC meeting in September.

Markets, however, may witness enhanced volatility tomorrow as the European central bankers begin their monetary policy meeting. It’s now showtime, as ECB head Draghi’s promises of last week better have some meat in them; otherwise, the major indexes may quickly shift into reverse.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 7/31/2012

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

The roller coaster ride continued this past week with the S&P 500 gaining 3% after having lost 1.9% during the prior five trading days.

This past week’s ramp up came as a result of super Mario (Draghi’s) chest pounding about rehashing all the things the ECB is willing to do to assist the Euro crisis, but he was rebuffed later on as Germany simply said “nein.”

Here we are at very elevated levels in the market place based on nothing but wishful thinking waiting for the FOMC to tell Wall Street’s QE addicts later today that a freshly spiked punchbowl is on its way.

Personally, I think that the Fed will refrain from any major QE action until later on this year, or the beginning of 2013, but they may very well extend the low interest rate window from 2014 to 2015, just to appease Wall Street. To my way of thinking, that would be considered a disappointment and, barring unforeseen circumstances, could result in a retreat for the major indexes.

In the meantime, here’s the latest model portfolio update:

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Market Indexes Slip On Uncertainty; Will The Fed/ECB Deliver?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Uncertainty and a certain amount of nervousness among traders provided the background for the day, as the major indexes all slid into the end of the month.

There was not much propping up going on as today proved to be a repeat of yesterday’s theme with the indexes hovering slightly above and below the unchanged line.

On the economic side, personal income increased greater than expected while spending was unchanged and consumer confidence surprised to the upside. Summer vacations and the Olympic Games contributed to a lackluster day.

However, this current lull could change in a hurry as all eyes are feasted first on Wednesday’s Fed meeting along with the European Central Bank powow, which is to be followed on Friday by the mother of all economic reports, namely the unemployment figures.

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