Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 01/17/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, January 17, 2013

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +3.01% as part of the post election rebound.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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Equities Rally On Economic Data; Europe Rises On Retailer Boost

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US equities advanced today, sending the S&P 500 to its highest level since December 2007 as better-than-forecast housing data and initial jobless claims offset mixed corporate results.

The boost came after the Commerce Department reported a sharp rise in the number of new homes being built in December. Housing starts vaulted 12.1 percent last month, the biggest rise since June 2008.

Investors also welcomed news that first time for unemployment benefits fell to a four-year low last week. The Labor Department said jobless-benefit applications dropped by 37,000 to 335,000 last week, the lowest level since January 2008.

Both the results exceeded investor expectations rather handily and gives a welcome reprieve from the continued political gridlock in Washington.

A separate report however showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia region contracted unexpectedly in January. The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey turned negative, indicating industries are becoming more concerned about the US government spending cuts that could hinder growth.  Of course, as was to be expected, bad news was simply ignored as the indexes were propelled towards even loftier levels.

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Indexes Are A Mixed Bag As Boeing Weighs On Blue-Chips; Europe Struggles On Growth Worries

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US equities closed mixed as investors remained worried about the debt ceiling negotiations and global economic growth while a rebound for Apple Inc buoyed the technology sector.

In economic news, the World Bank sharply cut its global growth forecast for this year citing austerity measures, low business confidence and high unemployment in advanced economies. The bank lowered its outlook for global economic growth to 2.4 percent from an earlier estimate of 3 percent.

Separately, the US Federal Reserve reported a rise in industrial production for the second straight month in December as demand for business equipment picked up even as lawmakers battled over the federal budget. Industrial production rose 0.3 percent in December after a 1 percent jump in November.

The US Fed’s Beige Book survey from 12 districts found rising home and car sales drove economic activity higher in December.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 1/15/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

With the Fed’s monetary pump fest continuing at a rate of some $85 billion per month, it’s not surprising that a good part of that money flows into equities pushing the indexes higher without much of a pullback or without any regards to underlying fundamentals.

The S&P 500 added about 1% since last week’s report, and yesterday’s awe inspiring 7 point pullback was quickly “corrected” as closing in the red by more than 1 point is simply not acceptable.

How long this relentless move higher can continue is the big unknown, but to my way of thinking markets can only be controlled by central planners up to a certain point until some connection to underlying economic realities will have to come into play again.

We may have seen a crack in the armor yesterday as the most widely held stock, Apple, succumbed and clearly pierced its fiercely defended $500 level to the downside.

Here’s the latest update for our Model ETF Portfolios:

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Early Sell Off Followed By Higher Close On Mixed Economic Data; Europe Ends Unchanged

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US stocks fought back, rebounding from earlier losses Tuesday as a rally in retail and transportation shares eclipsed concerns about discussions on raising the debt ceiling in Washington, while further weakness for Apple weighed on the technology sector.

On the economic news front, reports showed US retail sales rose 0.5 percent in December, led by an improvement in auto sales while producer prices fell 0.2 percent. Manufacturing, however, continued to be a weak spot with the Empire State Index, the gauge of manufacturing activity in the New York region, slipping for the sixth straight month in January as the industry faced the effects of lackluster demand overseas and fiscal uncertainty at home, according to the New York Federal Reserve Bank.

With as little as a month until the US runs out of money to honor its liabilities, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke urged the Congress to raise the debt ceiling swiftly while President Obama warned Republicans not to leverage the need for a debt-limit increase to force through spending cuts.

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Dell Rally Is Offset By Apple Slide In The US; Europe Declines For A Third Day On Data

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US equities closed mixed Monday, with two of the three benchmark indexes slipping into negative territory as Apple Inc’s near four percent drop amid concern about iPhone sales offset a rally in Dell Inc.

Apple, the most valuable company, sank 3.6 percent that wiped out $17 billion in investor wealth after the Wall Street Journal and Japan’s Nikkei reported the smartphone maker had cut iPhone production on weak demand.

Shares of Dell surged 13 percent, the most since October 2008, after Bloomberg news reported the Texas-based PC-maker is in buyout talks with private-equity firms while Hewlett-Packard jumped 4.9 percent after market researcher Gartner Inc said the company reclaimed the top PC-maker ranking from Lenovo Group Ltd. JP Morgan upgraded the stock to neutral from underweight.

President Barack Obama urged the Republican lawmakers not to use the debt ceiling as leverage in negotiations on spending-cuts while addressing a news conference in Washington. The opposition has already hinted at government default or shutdown as a means to force cuts in government spending.

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