7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 4/9/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

In regards to the S&P 500, it was a slow week with the index mainly hovering below its unchanged line but in the end it gave back only 1 point since the last ETF Model Portfolio report.

There has definitely been a slowdown in upward momentum in regards to equity indexes but our model portfolios all gained as the market pullback supported some of the bond positions. YTD it’s been equities that have taken the limelight and gold turned out to be the loser, at least to this moment in time.

Right now, the focus is on the upcoming earnings season, and it would not surprise me to see the indexes head further north based on the motto of this year that bad news is good news and good news is good news, which is one of those results you get when you live in a centrally planned market environment.

Sure, it makes me wonder how long this can go on, but as trend followers we don’t concern ourselves with the answer, since no one has it anyway, but we’ll simply continue to track the trends and let our sell stops provide the answer as to when it’s time to get out.

In the meantime, here is the latest update for our Model ETF Portfolios, which you can use based on your risk tolerance:

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Market Heads North Close To Record High While Economy Continues South

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Stocks surged on Tuesday, with the Dow closing at a record high on a rally in cyclical shares and as earnings season started to heat up. The S&P 500 hit an intraday high of 1,573.89, just below its October 2007 intraday high of 1,576; which is a nice recovery from the losses last week.

Investors are eying the start of earnings season and firm economic readings from overseas. Energy and materials were top performers, drawing support from Chinese inflation that slowed more than expected. Gold settled at its highest level in more than a week; crude oil rose on global supply concerns.

There is clear sign that investors are using market declines as buying opportunities, as the markets return to near-record levels. Stocks got a boost from a promising start to the earnings season. According to Thomson Reuters, about 5 percent of S&P 500 companies have reported results so far, almost three-quarters of them have topped expectations.

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Index ETFs Are Back To Winning Ways; Europe Rises On German Data

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

The major index ETFs advanced Monday, shedding early losses as investors grew optimistic first quarter earnings would help equities rebound from their biggest weekly decline of the year.  The gains were modest as buyers came in because they needed/wanted additional exposure in equities.

Federal reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to address a conference in Atlanta after today’s close, with investors looking for hints as to how long the central bank intends to continue its easing policies.

After sliding 67 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) finished 48 points higher. The trend turned positive with 21 of the 30 components within the blue-chip index finishing higher for the day, led by Bank of America Corp and Coca Cola Co.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 10 points with consumer stocks gaining the most. Nine of the 10 business groups within the benchmark index advanced with telecommunications being the sole laggard.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 4/5/2013

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 338 (last week 349) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 66 ETFs (last week 75) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 799 (last week 812) above the line and 60 below it out of the 859 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 4/7/2013

Ulli Market Review Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 4/7/2013.

It was a week of meandering as the major indexes made new highs but follow through buying was thoroughly lacking. The markets look tired here and even the Fed’s relentless money printing efforts seem to have only so much firepower left.

Nevertheless, the major trends, according to my Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs), remain up, although internationally upward momentum has clearly slowed down as the week ending TTI numbers in Friday’s report confirm.

No matter how much lipstick the mainstream media has put on Friday’s jobs report, the result was simply a flop given where the alleged economic recovery is supposed to be at in this cycle. However, remember in this planned and stimulated market environment good news is good news and bad news is good news as well.

It simply means that hopes are suddenly alive again, after voices to the contrary last week that the Fed’s punch bowl will continue to provide the necessary power to drive these markets, since not only the hoped for employment improvements are nothing but a dream for the time being also any reduced monetary action is sure to pull the indexes off their lofty levels with a vengeance.

Over past week, we covered the following:

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One Man’s Opinion: Are The US Jobs Data Discouraging?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

92835431The latest nonfarm payroll report shows the US economy created 88,000 jobs in March following a revised 268,000 gain in February though the jobless rate slumped to a four-year low of 7.6 percent due to a decline in the size of the labor force and participation rate.

The labor force participation rate and the number of people leaving the workforce have been disappointing and nobody expected the latest round of readings in the middle of a recovery, says Sharon Stark, Fixed Income Strategist at DA Davidson.

Asked if the bond rally will hold in the future after today’s jobs number, Sharon said investors can use this opportunity to shed some of their non-performing assets, especially those which may deteriorate in value when interest rates start to climb. There may be some backtracking from where yields were and markets are likely to see some consolidation around 1.75-1.80 percent for 10-year Treasury notes, though this opportunity should be used for cleaning up fixed-income portfolios, she added.

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