Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 04/25/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, April 25, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +3.77% as part of the post election rebound.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

Read More

Positive Data Equals Another Consecutive Day of Gains

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index extended its rally to a fifth day as major U.S. equity indices closed the trading day positive. For much of Thursday, markets were boosted by a number of earnings beats and encouraging jobless numbers from the Labor Department; but gave back some gains late after reports that Germany’s central bank president announcement that he doesn’t support the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions program.

The day started with some good news. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 16,000 last week to 339,000, the second lowest level since February 2008. Economists forecasted a fall to 350,000 claims. The decline is a welcome sign the labor market is gradually improving. The level of claims remains consistent with moderate gains in payrolls. The 4-week average of claims ticked down 4,500 to 357,500, indicating a downward trend.

Continuing claims for unemployment dropped 93,000, the most since January 2012, to 3.0 million, while the insured jobless rate fell to 2.3% from 2.4%. Both were at their lowest levels since the summer of 2008.

Read More

Index ETFs Fail to Find Direction; Mixed Finish

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Investors are left with little convictions as a result of disconcerting earnings results and a disappointing read on US durable goods orders. The market closed marginally lower at the Dow while extended gains in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a fourth day.

More than three stocks rose for every two that fell on U.S. exchanges as 6.3 billion shares traded hands, in line with the three-month average. The market’s mixed day followed strong gains early this week. The S&P 500 is still up 10.8 percent for the year despite a fairly weak month. Healthcare sector index fell 1.2 percent and was the worst performer among the S&P’s 10 sectors.

In earnings news, Apple’s drop in its gross margin overshadowed the company’s better-than-expected earnings. Dow members AT&T and Procter & Gamble, along with Yum! Brands posted mixed results. P&G fell 4.8 percent after the biggest U.S. household goods manufacturer issued a profit outlook that was below expectations. It was the stock’s biggest drop since January 2009.

Read More

7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 4/23/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

Volatility was an ever present companion during the past five trading days as the markets slipped but then managed to re-gain last week’s losses over the past two days with the S&P 500 adding 4 points since the last ETF Model Portfolio report.

Earnings were mixed in general so far but Wall Street’s focus was on bad is good and worse is even better as the indexes reinstated lost momentum and headed back up towards the 1,600 mile stone marker. If this does not make sense to you, you’re not the only one.

But that’s how it seems to work in this centrally planned and managed market environment until the day that it doesn’t. To me that simply means we always have to be on guard and prepared to exit should our trailing sell stops issue the signal. Commodities have been weak and our model holdings in DBC (#3 and #4) have been hovering around the sell stop point. Any more weakness tomorrow and we’ll be out.

In the meantime, here is the latest update for our Model ETF Portfolios, which you can use based on your risk tolerance:

Read More

Markets Crash Briefly Over White House Bomb Fake

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Equities logged a third straight day of gains in late trading Tuesday. Midday, the indexes took steep nosedive (see chart above) following a false AP tweet that indicated that the White House had been the victim of an explosion and that President Obama had been injured.

AP confirmed its Twitter account was hacked. Almost immediately following the tweet, the Dow Jones Industrial Average took a quick 143-point plunge. Within six minutes, the Dow recovered its losses and was trading with triple-digit gains. The three-minute plunge triggered by the tweet briefly wiped out $136.5 billion of the S&P 500 index’s value, according to Reuters data.

In the end, the Dow finished up 1.05 percent while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also finished near session highs. The Nasdaq rose 1.10% after having been up as much as 1.3% intraday. The S&P 500 was up 1.04%. The Dow and S&P 500 are back in positive territory for April.

Read More

Starting The Week On A Positive Note Despite Negative Data

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

The market returned from the weekend with some modest gains, after the biggest weekly loss in five months for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The S&P 500 increased 0.5 percent while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose a meager 0.1%. Energy and materials shares were among the best performers of the day on the S&P 500, bouncing back from last week’s big losses.

The market slumped early on as existing home sales fell 0.6% in March to a 4.92 million unit annual rate, according to the National Association of Realtors. Economists expected a 0.8% increase to a 5.02 million unit rate. Both single-family and condo/co-op sales edged down, but both continued on their upward trend.

The shortage in existing home inventory was likely the main reason for the pullback in activity. However, low inventory pushed up prices. Median prices have increased 11.8% from a year ago, the most since November 2005. Although most releases still indicate economic expansion, data of late has been modestly disappointing, raising the prospect of at least a minor soft patch. Although today’s report was not short of disappointment, it had some potential positives as sales have been above year-ago levels for 21 consecutive months. Also, the inventory issues could lead to a future ramp up of construction.

Read More