ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, August 30, 2013

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/08/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-08292013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, August 30, 2013

MAJOR INDEX ETFS END AUGUST ON DOWN NOTE

U.S. stocks snapped their recent two-day winning streak to fall in a thinly traded session as the S&P 500 index recorded its worst loss since May 2012. Stocks struggled following a report that showed U.S. consumer spending and income were softer than forecasted, which overshadowed a larger-than-expected upward revision to consumer sentiment.

Investors also avoided making large bets before a long weekend with the situation in Syria still uncertain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 31 points lower (0.2%) at 14,810, the S&P 500 Index lost 5 points (0.3%) to 1,633, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 30 points (0.8%) to 3,590.

Afternoon trading was volatile, with indexes swinging from break-even levels to their lows as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry commented on the Syrian situation, implying the U.S. will act alone if necessary. While buying interest was somewhat scarce, the CBOE Volatility Index rose 0.8% as participants demanded some downside protection. Reviewing today’s economic data, personal income edged up 0.1% in July, below the consensus of 0.2%. Meanwhile, spending levels were also weak. Consumption grew 0.1% in July; the consensus expected an increase of 0.3%.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/29/2013

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, August 29, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

The Domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +1.34% after briefly dipping below it late in June.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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Growth Data Supports Stocks’ Advance

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Domestic equities managed to close higher for a second straight session, despite an afternoon stumble, thanks to a solid read on the pace of U.S. economic growth and weekly jobless claims remaining near 5-year lows, while the immediate threat of military action against Syria diminished slightly.

Meanwhile, gold and crude oil retracted from their recent rally, while the U.S. dollar and Treasuries gained ground. Stocks found further support from a potential major M&A announcement in the telecom sector as Vodafone confirmed talks with Verizon regarding a sale of its stake in Verizon Wireless, a potential $130 billion deal.

As the result, telecom services finished in the lead as the sector advanced 1.2%. Eight of ten sectors posted gains on Thursday. Technology also displayed notable strength as top-weighted components like Google and Microsoft climbed 0.8% and 1.6%, respectively. High-beta chipmakers also rallied as the PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 1.2%. The outperformance of technology combined with strength among biotechnology companies helped the Nasdaq finish well-ahead of the broader market.

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Bulls Prevail Despite Military Tensions

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

U.S. equity indexes showed a little resiliency and closed higher, recouping some of the losses from two-straight sessions in negative territory, as investors shrugged off disappointing housing data and escalating tensions in Syria. Crude oil prices continued to rally amid political tensions, boosting energy stocks, and the U.S. dollar gained ground.

Meanwhile, Treasuries were lower despite a surprising decline in pending home sales and a decrease in mortgage applications. Trading volume was thin and came after a drop in the S&P 500 index on Tuesday to its lowest in two months. The index settled higher by 0.3% to follow yesterday’s 1.6% slide. Although the benchmark index advanced, it was unable to retake its 100-day moving average.

Eight of ten sectors finished in positive territory with energy leading the way. The sector displayed significant strength, climbing 1.8%, after outperforming during yesterday’s session. Thanks to today’s jump, energy is the only sector trading in positive territory this month.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 8/27/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

As if QE taper considerations were not enough, Syrian war talks joined the party and total uncertainty pulled the major indexes lower with the S&P 500 losing some 1.3% since last week’s model portfolio report.

Even improved consumer confidence and rising home prices were not enough to bring out the usually very reliable buy-the-dip crowd, so the markets took the path of least resistance, which was down.

All models retreated along with the indexes, and we’ll have to wait and see if downward momentum will accelerate to a point that would not only stop us out of some of our equity positions but also push the Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) into bear market territory.

Domestically, we’re only 1.15% away from breaking the trend line to the downside, which currently is a real possibility, unless a new catalyst suddenly emerges to pull the indexes out of this slide.

Here’s the latest ETF Model Portfolio update:

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Syria Tensions Take Down Stocks

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Major Index ETFs suffered the worst day since June slumping in a broad decline as geopolitical concerns over a possible US-led military response against Syria worsened, overshadowing data showing an unexpected improvement in Consumer Confidence, a rise in housing prices, and a jump in regional manufacturing activity.

The S&P 500 closed below its 100-day moving average, a sign of weak short-term momentum. The day’s fall extends recent losses on uncertainty over when the U.S. Federal Reserve will start to slow its monetary policies. Retreats of the major averages sent the CBOE Volatility Index to its highest level since early July as investors scrambled to buy protection.

Crude oil and gold prices moved solidly higher in the midst of the geopolitical unease, and Treasuries gained ground. Concerns over possible supply interruptions helped crude oil end at its highest level in more than a year, climbing 2.8% to $108.84 per barrel. While most cyclical sectors ended behind the broader market, the energy space outperformed with a loss of 0.6% as the surge in crude contributed to the sector’s strength.

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