ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, June 14, 2013

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/06/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-06132013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, June 14, 2013

THEME OF THE WEEK: RED AND VOLATILE

The major averages ended in the red after early gains evaporated during the opening hour amid a variety of factors. Traders cautiously await next week’s two-day monetary policy meeting by the Federal Reserve, which could offer clues into the central bank’s plans for eventually reducing the pace of its stimulus programs.

Moreover, a slew of lackluster economic reports added downward pressure to stocks, as they failed to inspire a continuation of yesterday’s rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 106 points lower (0.7%) at 15,070. Yesterday, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index bounced off its 50-day moving average, but today’s session saw the index get rejected by its 20-day average, decreased 10 points (0.6%) to 1,627. The Nasdaq Composite shed 22 points (0.6%) to 3,424.

Big news came as the International Monetary Fund cut its 2014 outlook for America to 2.7% from 3.0% and urged the central bank to carefully manage its exit from stimulus plans.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 06/13/2013

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, June 13, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +2.93% as part of the post election rebound.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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Domestic Data Returns Stocks Winning Ways

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

U.S. equity ETFs returned to a more desirable direction today, snapping their first three-day losing streak of the year, as stocks got back to their winning ways in the face of the lingering uncertainty regarding global central bank stimulus and the World Bank delivering a downgraded economic growth outlook.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 181 points (1.2%) to 15,176, the S&P 500 Index added 24 points (1.5%) to 1,636, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 45 points (1.3%) to 3,445.

Once again, overseas action was in focus this morning as Asian markets remained volatile. Japan’s Nikkei stood out with a 6.4% loss while the yen continued strengthening.

On the economic front, Retail sales rose 0.6% in May, up in nine of the past 12 months, and above the consensus of 0.4%. The consumer side of the economy remains strong, despite higher payroll and other income tax rates this year.

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Pull-Back Is Gaining Momentum

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Despite an early rally following upbeat European economic data, the major averages were unable to hold their flat lines past the opening 90 minutes, reversed course to close lower for a third-straight trading day.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index spent the entire day in a steady decline as minor bounces were met with aggressive selling. The Index lost 13 points (0.8%) to 1,613; while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 127 points (0.8%) to 14,995, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 37 points (1.1%) to 3,400.

Volatility spiked by exacerbated skepticism of the continuity of global central bank stimulus efforts. All 10 main industries in the S&P 500 retreated. Utility stocks fell 1.1 percent, extending a six-week decline to 11 percent. Cyclical sectors led to the downside as financials and discretionary shares ended with losses near 1.0%. Meanwhile, the defensive cousin of the discretionary space, consumer staples (XLP), outperformed the broader market with a loss of only 0.6%.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 6/11/2013

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Another volatile five trading sessions, but the week ending rally saved the day as the S&P 500 only lost 0.31%.

Uncertainty about the Fed’s possible tapering continued, while interest rates are inching higher wreaking havoc with some of the bond ETFs. Even VNQ was hit hard, triggered our trailing sell stop and was sold on 6/5/13.

So far, equity indexes, like the widely followed S&P 500, have come off their highs but have not reacted as negatively to higher rates as is usually the case. Historically, bonds have been the canary in the coal mine as far as equity direction is concerned. We’ll have to wait and see if it plays out that way again.

I think we’re in a crucial phase of this bull market where the indexes have attempted to move higher but, so far, these attempts have resembled dead cat bounces with no follow through to the upside. When things get this uncertain, it’s wise that you revisit your sell stop points again and execute them as they get triggered.

Here’s the latest ETF Model Portfolio update:

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All Red—All Day

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Stocks slid in a volatile session today, followed the global concerns surrounding the limits of additional stimulus from central banks from around the world. Major indexes fell more than 1 percent after the open but shaved most of the losses by midday to flirt with positive territory, only for the selling to resume towards the session’s end.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 117 points (0.8%) to 15,122, the S&P 500 Index ended lower for a second day, lost 17 points (1.0%) to 1,626, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 37 points (1.1%) to 3,435.

Overseas concerns contributed to a rise in global interest rates, which, in turn, fueled the selling of equities. The major indexes dropped early followed the disappointing reaction to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy decision, where it will maintain its current aggressive stimulus stance, which includes asset purchases. Although no major changes were expected, some were disappointed that the central bank did not offer any measures to combat the recent bond market volatility.

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