ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, June 28, 2013

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/06/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-06272013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, June 28, 2013

STOCKS END MIXED BUT BEST FIRST HALF SINCE 1998

U.S. equities had a rollercoaster week that ended on a downward slope. Traders grappled with a plethora of disappointing corporate earnings releases and a larger-than-anticipated decline in regional manufacturing activity, which overshadowed an upward revision to US consumer sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 115 points lower (0.7%) at 14,909, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index decreased 7 points (0.4%) to 1,606, and the Nasdaq Composite was nearly flat at 3,403. In heavy volume due to index rebalancing, 1.7 billion shares changed hand on the NYSE, and 2.5 billion shares were traded on the Nasdaq.

The Dow along with the S&P 500 ended Friday’s session with their best first half performance of any year since 1998 after reaching record highs in May on a rally underpinned by the Fed’s massive monetary stimulus. Stocks slipped out of the gate amid weakness in Treasuries. The 10-yr note sold off into the cash session open before erasing most of its losses. The benchmark 10-yr yield ended higher by two basis points at 2.493%. The losses on equities were broad, with eight of the 10 S&P 500 industrial sectors declining. Only utilities and consumer discretionary shares closed higher.

On the positive note, the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 1.4 points from the preliminary reading to 84.1 in June, the second highest level since July 2007. The index slipped 0.4 points for the month. On a y/y basis, the index is up 14.9%, indicating a bullish mode for the economy. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index showed a slowdown in manufacturing activity growth that was more than expected, decreasing to 51.6 in June, from the unrevised 58.7 in May. Economists had forecasted a decline to 55.0. Now let’s look at the week in review.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 06/27/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, June 27, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +1.18% after briefly dipping below it earlier this week.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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Make It Three In The Row

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

U.S. stocks climbed for a third straight day today, allowing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to close above 15,000 again and sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its biggest three-day rally since January.

Several Federal Reserve policymakers threw a big assist by jawboning the markets higher with comments that the central bank is not likely to pare its stimulus before the economy is ready. The Dow rose 114 points (0.8%) to 15,025, the S&P 500 Index added 10 points (0.6%) to 1,613, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 26 points (0.8%) to 3,402.

On economic news, personal income rose 0.5% in May, the most in three months, and above the consensus of 0.2%. Real disposable personal income rose 0.4% and is up 1.0% on a y/y trend basis. While this is below the average 2.7% gain per annum, it is allegedly supportive of stable growth in real consumer spending.

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Negative Releases Boost Index ETFs…Again!

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

U.S. stocks rallied for a second day on Wednesday, recouping some recent losses as slower-than-forecast economic growth fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain stimulus. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 150 points (1.0%) to 14,910, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 15 points (1.0%) to 1,603, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 28 points (0.8%) to 3,376.

Equities began the session on an upbeat note despite today’s disappointing economic news, which indicated first quarter real GDP growth was revised sharply lower to a 1.8% annual rate from 2.4% in the previous estimates, below the consensus for an unchanged reading. The large decline in today’s report caught all economists by surprise.

The biggest contributors to the downward revision were real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential structures. PCE was revised down to a 2.6% annual rate from 3.4% in the previous estimate, reducing its contribution to GDP growth to 1.83 percentage points from 2.40. It was still the fastest PCE growth in two years; however, when considering that about 70% of GDP comes from consumer spending, this does not bode well for future growth.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 6/25/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

The prior week’s calmness gave way to severe selling with the major indexes tumbling from their lofty levels as a result of the Fed uttering the currently most feared words in the English language, namely “tapering.” This, of course, refers to the potential toning down of the QE program.

Just about all asset classes got spanked with the S&P 500 losing some 3.9% since last week’s ETF Model Portfolio report. There was simply no place to hide, but it could have been a lot worse had it not been for last minute calming announcements by various Fed officials.

However, the words have been muttered, and it now depends on the “buying the dip” crowd as to whether we will enter bear market territory or bounce off these levels.

Several sell stops in our model portfolios were triggered, and the affected positions were noted as closed. Since PRPFX went into sell mode, I also closed out the #7 portfolio, which is its ETF equivalent. It’s redundant right now, as PRPFX is represented by the ETF PERM, which you can use if your preference is the ETF version.

Here’s the latest ETF Model Portfolio update:

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Strong Data Set Off Market Rebound; Domestic TTI Inches Back Above The Line

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Bulls got some much needed fuel to push U.S. equity markets higher, the most in nearly two weeks thanks to a slew of upbeat domestic economic reports. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 101 points (0.7%) to 14,760; the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rebounded from a nine-week low, added 15 points (1.0%) to 1,588, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 27 points (0.8%) to 3,348.

U.S. stocks climbed today as the Conference Board’s index of U.S. consumer confidence rose 7.1 points in June, its third straight gain, to 81.4, the highest level since January 2008 . Economists expected the index would decline 0.7 points to 75.5.

Consumers remain upbeat despite higher payroll and income taxes this year and the negative impact from the government sequester. The current confidence level is allegedly consistent with the trend in economic growth. Elsewhere, new home sales rose 2.1% to a 476,000 unit annual rate, the highest level since July 2008. Economists expected a 1.8% gain to a 462,000 unit rate. On a y/y basis, sales are up 29.0%. With sharply rising mortgage rates, I have to wonder how long that will last.

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