ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 9/20/2013

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 322 (last week 310) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 67 ETFs (last week 63) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 800 (last week 784) above the line and 59 below it out of the 859 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report   

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Has The US Fed Lost Control Over The Bond Market?

Ulli Market Review Contact

92835431Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report expected the Federal Reserve to reduce its monthly bond purchase program by $10-$15 billion, but says he’s not surprised Ben Bernanke didn’t bite the bullet.

The people at the Fed are academics with little understanding what’s happening on the ground. What they fail to understand is that printing money benefits only a miniscule proportion of the population. Equities and commodities reacted positively to the Fed’s announcement with prices of crude, silver and gold surging. However, the downside far outweighs the benefits as only 11 percent of Americans directly own equities and don’t benefit from an increase in asset prices, Mark argued.

When told low interest rates benefit mortgage and car buyers, Marc said the bond markets had peaked out and interest rates hit the bottom on July 25, 2012, well ahead of the QE3 announcement made by the Fed on Sep 14, 2012. Ten-year Treasury note yields had tumbled to 1.43 percent and Bernanke had said in a press conference the objective of the Fed is to keep interest rates low; yields have doubled since then, meaning markets were ready for taper, but Bernanke failed to pull the trigger, he quipped.

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New ETFs On The Block: ETRACS Diversified High Income ETN (DVHI)

Ulli Income ETFs Contact

146026450ETRACS, the ETF issuing arm of Swiss banking giant UBS, has unveiled an exchange-traded note that seeks to provide high income through a diversified basket of equities and fixed income. Since the Federal Reserve has decided to continue the current pace of assets purchases, yields are likely to remain weak till the labor market improves and inflation remains benign.

If you are seeking higher yield, you may consider the latest UBS product since it offers a new way to target high-yield securities from across the globe, potentially providing a new perspective on income-focused products.

Multi-asset income funds have gained wide acceptance in the past year-and-a-half with the Guggenheim Multi-Asset Income ETF (CVY) leading the pack with assets of about $750 million under management. Nevertheless, UBS is the first sponsor to unveil a product in an ETN package and may appeal to investors who wish to avoid capital losses with the slow normalization of interest rates in the US.

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09-20-2013

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, September 20, 2013

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/09/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-09192013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, September 20, 2013

STOCKS SHIFT INTO RETREAT MODE AS BUDGET BATTLE BEGINS

U.S. equity markets closed the trading session solidly lower, erasing some of the recent gains, which stemmed from the Street’s initial reaction to the surprising Fed announcement that the Central Bank will keep its stimulus measures at the current pace.

The U.S. economic calendar was void of any major releases today. Meanwhile, Treasuries were higher amid the Fed and fiscal uncertainty, while lawmakers began their budget battle on Capitol Hill. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 186 points lower (1.2%) at 15,451, the S&P 500 Index ended down 13 points (0.7%) at 1,710, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 15 points (0.4%) to 3,775.

The major indices spent the entire session in a steady retreat off their opening levels with industrials and materials leading to the downside. Sellers remained in control throughout the day amid divisive headlines from Washington. Although all ten sectors ended in the red, nine finished the week with a gain while today’s weakest performer (telecom services) closed the week flat.

Elsewhere, the industrial sector (-1.4%) weighed on the broader market as defense contractors lagged as broader PHLX Defense Index fell 1.7%. The Market Vectors Steel ETF slid 2.2%. Miners lagged as gold fell 3.2% to $1,326.10 per troy ounce. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF tumbled 5.9%.

With the stock market ending on its lows, only financials (-0.5%) and health care (-0.2%) outperformed while technology (-0.7%) and discretionary shares (-0.7%) ended in-line. On the equity front, shares of BlackBerry Limited were under heavy pressure after the smart phone maker announced disappointing preliminary 2Q results and that it will be reducing its workforce by approximately 4,500. The stock plunged 17.1%.

This week, the Dow and S&P 500 reached record highs and bond yields came under pressure as the Federal Reserve surprised the markets by holding off on beginning the process of normalizing monetary policy. The Fed also downgraded its outlook for the economy.

So far now, September defied the worriers. The stock market has bounced backed from an August swoon, despite a calendar loaded with potential rally killers. Fears of a conflict with Syria have faded; and, as Middle East strife recedes from investors’ minds, though, fears of budget gridlock grow. Even with today’s decline, the S&P 500 index is up 4.8 percent for the month.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) headed higher as well and closed the week as follows:

Domestic TTI: +3.43% (last week +2.29%)

International TTI: +7.70% (last week +6.15%)

Have a great week.

Ulli…

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Bill:

Q: Ulli: On 9-6-13, FOCPX dropped 8.8% about $6.66 per share. I called a Fidelity rep and he said because Apple fell 9-10% and FBIOX also declared and paid a Capital Gain and Dividend of around $1.189 per share, but it’s sort of floundering around not moving and actually down three days in a row for the last three days.

I guess my question is, are people getting out because of that drop and should I get out also?

I understand when a lot of people get out of a fund they have to sell off and that makes the fund drop.

A: Bill: Here’s how I look at it:

FOCPX made a high of 80.84 on 8/5/13, which would be the number to use for your trailing sell stop. Say, 7.5% of that high would put a sell signal at a break below 74.78, which happened only briefly before this fund recovered. I could not verify the distribution of $1.19.

If that is in fact correct, you need to reduce the high price by that amount, which would make the new high $79.65. Now you calculate the sell stop point of 7.5%, which brings it down to $73.68, which has not been reached yet.

That’s the process I go through to determine if a stop has been triggered. If it has, I will execute the next day, unless there is a huge rebound in the making.

Hope that clarifies your thinking.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, September 20, 2013

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/09/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-09192013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, September 20, 2013

STOCKS SHIFT INTO RETREAT MODE AS BUDGET BATTLE BEGINS

U.S. equity markets closed the trading session solidly lower, erasing some of the recent gains, which stemmed from the Street’s initial reaction to the surprising Fed announcement that the Central Bank will keep its stimulus measures at the current pace.

The U.S. economic calendar was void of any major releases today. Meanwhile, Treasuries were higher amid the Fed and fiscal uncertainty, while lawmakers began their budget battle on Capitol Hill. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 186 points lower (1.2%) at 15,451, the S&P 500 Index ended down 13 points (0.7%) at 1,710, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 15 points (0.4%) to 3,775.

The major indices spent the entire session in a steady retreat off their opening levels with industrials and materials leading to the downside. Sellers remained in control throughout the day amid divisive headlines from Washington. Although all ten sectors ended in the red, nine finished the week with a gain while today’s weakest performer (telecom services) closed the week flat.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 09/19/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, September 19, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

The Domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +3.88% after briefly dipping below it late in June 2013.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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