No Recovery In Sight – Bears Take Full Control

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
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Markets opened weak and never really recovered—the bears were in full control, driving a sharp, one-sided selloff across almost everything.

The major indexes dove lower, with tech getting hit especially hard and Bitcoin sinking toward $65,000 (after briefly dipping below $70,000, a level many saw as key support).

The trigger was Alphabet’s earnings: they projected a big jump in AI spending (up to $185 billion in capex for 2026), which spooked some investors who want to see revenue growth catch up first. Shares fell 5%.

Broadcom bucked the trend and jumped almost 2% on the spending news (hope for chip suppliers), but most of the AI crew felt the pain. Qualcomm slid 7% on a weaker forecast tied to a global memory shortage.

The selloff spilled into software (now in its 8th straight down day) and precious metals.

Silver crashed as much as 19% overnight (after liquidation in Shanghai flowed into U.S. markets), while gold briefly touched $5,000 before losing it.

The dollar extended yesterday’s gains, bond yields dropped, and the whole move had the fingerprints of margin calls and forced deleveraging—Bitcoin being the easiest 24/7 asset to liquidate.

In the end, it was a violent, red-dominated day with no late recovery in sight. Breadth was ugly—only about 200 S&P 500 names stayed green.

When even the metals sell off and the bears dominate a day like this, this feels like a normal, healthy breather after a strong run… but I am wondering if the pullback might have a little more room to run before the bullish crowd steps back in?

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Silver +3%, Gold Back Above $5,000 – Metals Hold Firm

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The S&P 500 opened pretty flat while traders kept rotating out of tech stocks, sending the Nasdaq sharply lower.

The main trigger was AMD sliding 14% after its Q1 forecast came in softer than some analysts hoped, which piled more pressure on the sector. Broadcom dipped 3%, Micron fell 8%, and the rest of the chip/AI crowd followed suit.

ADP’s private payrolls report for January came in weak—just +22,000 jobs added vs. the +45,000 economists expected.

That added to the cautious mood, though the official nonfarm payrolls number won’t drop this week due to the partial government shutdown (which ended Tuesday when Trump signed the funding bill).

All eyes are now on Alphabet (reporting after the bell today) and Amazon (Thursday).

The Mag 7 underperformed the rest of the S&P 493 again, and growth stocks in general got outsold by value names.

Bond yields were mixed (long end up, short end down), the dollar clawed back yesterday’s losses, and crypto kept bleeding—Bitcoin hit a new low around $72K after bouncing briefly.

On the bright side, precious metals held up nicely: gold climbed back above $5,000 (though it couldn’t hold), and silver eked out almost a 3% gain.

With tech continuing to lag, value and small caps picking up the slack, and our TTIs still advancing, does this feel like a healthy broadening of the rally into more stable areas… or are you starting to think the growth/tech side needs a real spark to keep the overall bull intact?

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Metals Surge Again – February’s Weak History In Focus

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The Dow briefly tagged a new record high early on as traders kept rotating out of tech and into more economy-sensitive names.

The broader market had a mixed day, but the tone felt like “value and cyclical stocks are back in play” after recent weakness.

In healthcare, Merck jumped more than 3% (and was the Dow’s biggest gainer at +3.5%) after crushing Q4 earnings and revenue on strong demand for its cancer immunotherapy and other products.

Pepsi added about 4% on solid organic sales growth across the board. Banks joined the party too—JPMorgan and Wells Fargo up around 2% each, Citigroup gaining about 1%.

Palantir popped 6% on strong Q4 results and upbeat guidance.

On the flip side, most tech names were in the red. Nvidia and Microsoft each shed 2%, adding to their rough start to 2026. Software stocks continued struggling—ServiceNow -7%, Salesforce -5%.

The big support came from metals: gold and silver each surged over 6%, copper ripped almost 4.5%. That helped offset the equity weakness.

The Mag 7 massively underperformed the rest of the S&P 493 again, with the majors closing mostly red (Nasdaq led the downside). Only small caps found enough juice to eke out a green finish.

Bond yields ended lower after an early spike, the dollar mirrored that softness, Bitcoin went nowhere (dipped to ~$73K but bounced back toward $76K), and silver was the most volatile — spiking 12% at one point before settling back.

Historically, February is the second-weakest month of the year—mid-month gains often vanish by the end. Will that pattern repeat this time around?

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From Risk-Off To Dip-Buying – Markets Shake Off The Weekend

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes opened with some early juice as Wall Street kicked off a fresh month, shrugging off last week’s drama in silver and bitcoin.

The mood quickly steadied, and by the end we closed solidly higher across the board—dip buyers stepped in and lifted everything.

Bitcoin had a rough go early, dipping below $80,000 for the first time since April (a clear sign of risk-off vibes after Friday’s bloodbath in metals).

Silver had plunged around 30% on Friday—its worst single-day drop since 1980—while gold fell about 10% in what many called one of the most blatant short squeezes to bail out leveraged bank positions.

Both metals (and BTC) bounced off their lows today, trimming losses and helping ease the broader risk-off pressure. Bitcoin recovered above $78K, gold and silver each down roughly 4% by the close.

Traders also kept an eye on Nvidia amid growing questions about AI spending. Reports surfaced that Nvidia’s planned $100 billion investment in OpenAI has stalled, with execs expressing doubts about the deal. Nvidia shares slipped about 1%.

Earnings season ramps up this week with over 100 S&P 500 companies reporting, including Amazon and Alphabet (both higher today). Season’s been solid so far, though we’ve seen some high-profile post-earnings dumps (Microsoft being a recent example).

Bond yields rose on strong manufacturing data, giving the dollar a modest rebound.

When the Dow powers ahead like this while the broader market plays catch-up, it feels likes classic rotation into value and stability… or are tech and growth names just taking a breather?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 01/30/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (276 vs. 272 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For January 30, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

WARSH PICK CALMS FED FEARS – STOCKS DIP, METALS PULL BACK 

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes headed lower pretty much all day, with tech shares staying in a funk.

Traders were largely okay with President Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve—his experience as a former Fed governor and occasional hawkish stance on inflation eased some worries about Fed independence.

Markets see him as someone who might push for lower rates short-term (what Trump wants) but won’t just rubber-stamp every White House wish, preserving some credibility for policy.

That said, stocks couldn’t shake the weakness. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq are still on track for a positive January—each up more than 1% for the month so far.

Gold spot prices fell 16% from yesterday’s highs, silver plunged 39%, signaling comfort with Warsh’s more hawkish lean. Even after today’s sell-off, gold and silver remain way higher for the month (+12% and +14%) and for the past year (+72% and +164%).

Bond yields ticked higher after hotter-than-expected December core producer price index data (up 0.7% vs. the expected 0.3%). Apple inched lower despite beating Q1 earnings and revenue (helped by strong iPhone sales), while SanDisk popped 22% on upbeat guidance.

Equity markets were volatile this week but finished January higher overall—small caps led, Nasdaq lagged, and the Mag 7 basket ended the month in the red.

The dollar got dumped for the third straight month, while Bitcoin rode its usual rollercoaster—tanked early but erased the losses by the close.

Risk and volatility are always around the corner. Right now, the big disconnect between stocks at record highs and the huge gap to rate-cut expectations could pull the punchbowl away if the Fed stays cautious.

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