Slipping And Sliding

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

It was a choppy and sloppy session as the S&P 500 headed into record territory early on but was not able to hold on to those gains.

The day was light in regards to economic data but confusion reigned as releases showed a mixed picture with the labor market on one hand demonstrating improvement, as job openings indicated a better than expected demand.

On the other hand, the negative influence was the fact that wholesale inventories increased meaning that businesses could not sell their goods as quickly as had been assumed. This proved to be the nail in the coffin for the indexes as we slowly slid towards the close. Not helping matters was a slide in copper and oil prices due to concerns about the Chinese economy.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight pulled back as well with none of them making new highs today but 7 of them currently showing gains YTD.

Read More

Markets Affected By China Data, But Bulls Continue To Charge Forward

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Wall Street fell Monday morning, a day after the current bull market’s fifth anniversary, weighed down by unexpectedly weak trade data from China, which resulted in a halt to the market’s record performance. Data out over the weekend showed that Chinese exports in February dropped 18.1% from a year ago, versus expectations of a 5% increase. Some economists say that the data is distorted by the long Lunar New Year that took place at the end of January.

In equities, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR) announced its decision to change its name to Keurig Green Mountain, Inc to reflect its current business and goal in the future. It will remain trading its stock under the ticker symbol “GMCR” at the Nasdaq stock exchange. Last month, GMCR announced the completion of its transaction with The Coca-Cola Company (KO). The beverage giant agreed to acquire a minority stake in the specialty coffee company for $1.25 billion. The stock closed the day down about 1.9%.

We received a strong indication from the Fed today that they will continue to wind down their bond buying program. Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, stated that the Federal Reserve will continue to trim its monthly asset purchases at a rate of $10 billion. With the bond buying winding down, the Fed’s more immediate challenge is re-writing a pledge to keep rates near zero until well after the unemployment rate falls below 6.5 percent. Because joblessness has fallen quickly to 6.7 percent, policymakers are debating how to adjust that pledge without giving the impression they will tighten policy any time soon.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight pulled back slightly with none of them making new highs today but 8 of them are currently showing gains YTD.

Read More

ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 03/07/2014

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 364 (last week 371) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 73 ETFs (last week 74) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 769 (last week 752) above the line and 80 below it out of the 859 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report     

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Does US And European Corporate Credit Still Look Attractive?

Ulli Market Review Contact

9283543110-year US Treasury yields have remained range-bound since June last year and the trading range has been very clear, varying between 2.5 and 3 percent, suggesting borrowing is back, said Anthony Crescenzi, a portfolio manager at PIMCO.

The US economic growth is expected to accelerate to about 2.8 percent this year from the low twos that has been the norm for a number of years. The US 10-year yields are expected to slowly rise as the monetary policy normalizes and is likely to trade between 2.75 percent and 3.75 percent in future, meaning investors should be a little bit short in maturities expecting rates to rise and be in the front-end of the yield-curve.

With the shorter maturities, the Fed is protecting the investors and is indicating it will be doing so for at least till the middle of 2015, as one key Fed member – William Dudley of New York Federal Reserve Bank said recently, he observed.

Read More

New ETFs On The Block: Powershares International Buyback Achievers Portfolio (IPKW)

Ulli International ETFs Contact

98153895Invesco PowerShares, the IL-based global provider of mutual and exchange-traded funds with total assets exceeding $770 billion, has launched an international version of its wildly successful Buyback Achievers Portfolio (PKW).

PKW has nearly $3 billion in assets, making it one of the most successful broader market ETFs over the past few years and has comfortably outperformed the S&P 500 index during the current market advances.

The newly launched PoweShares International BuyBack Achievers Portfolio (IPKW) adds to the so-called line up of PowerShares’ 40 smart-beta funds. Smart-beta funds typically choose a broad-based index and screen it for qualitative and quantitative factors to boost returns.

Read More

03-07-2014

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For March 7, 2014

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/03/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-03062014/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

Friday, March 7, 2014

WEEKLY RECAP; PAYROLL REPORT KEEPS MARKETS STABLE

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

The S&P 500 continued its climb today to close at another all-time high, still feeding off the favorable jobs reports that were released this week. The official monthly payroll report that was published today helped markets rally in early trading. Employers added 175,000 jobs in February, well in excess of the past two months and more than many observers had anticipated. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7%, but the increase was due mostly to a healthy rise in the labor force.

Let’s recap what happened this week. Stocks overcame a sharp pullback in response to a growing crisis in Ukraine and ended the week higher. After a sell-off on Monday, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index moved back into record territory on Tuesday and held onto its gain through much of the rest of the week.

The movement of Russian troops into Ukraine’s Crimea over the weekend rattled the world markets on Monday. Many investors moved to safer assets, and the stock market suffered as a result. Russia is a major supplier of oil and gas to Europe, and the prospect of sanctions or other disruptions sent the price of both commodities up sharply. Stock prices rallied on Tuesday, however, as Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to indicate that Russia did not intend to annex Crimea and had no immediate plans for military action.

Emerging markets debt posted good returns when tensions between Russia and Ukraine began to subside. Investors closely watched China’s bond market, where a solar-equipment company missed an interest payment on Friday. This was the first time that the Chinese government has allowed an onshore, local-currency bond to default, and will likely cause investors to more accurately price credit risk in Chinese corporate bonds.

On the currency front, the U.S. dollar was weaker against the major currencies for the week.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight edged higher for the week with 3 of them making new highs today while 9 of them are now showing gains YTD.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

In other words, none of them ever triggered their 7.5% sell stop level during this time period, which included a variety of severe market pullbacks but no move into outright bear market territory.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

All of them are in “buy” mode meaning their prices are above their respective long term trend lines by the percentage indicated (%M/A).

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

To be clear, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column.

3. Domestic Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) improved from last week’s close and ended as follows:

Domestic TTI: +4.35% (last Friday +4.34%)

International TTI: +6.04% (last Friday +6.39%)

Have a great week.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

————————————————————-

READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader James:

Q: Ulli: What has happened to your 7 model portfolios? Have you abandoned this approach? Did I miss something?

A: James: Yes, you must have missed the announcement. This is what I posted in November about the discontinuation of the model portfolios as they have been replaced by the daily update of the 10 ETFs in the Spotlight:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/11/7-etf-model-portfolios-you-can-use-updated-through-11262013/?preview=true

———————————————————-

WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/