Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 02/05/2015

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, February 5, 2015

TOC 121514

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/22/2014

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +3.39% keeping us in the market with our established positions.

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Let’s Keep The Bulls Running

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The bulls continued charging forward this Thursday. The start to the year for stocks was a downer, but a February renaissance for stocks continued, as all three major indexes rocketed back into positive territory. Today, investors plowed money back into stocks following a slump the week before, encouraged by a 4% jump in the price of crude oil and Pfizer’s $16 billion deal to buy the drugmaker Hospira.

Drug giant Pfizer (PFE) said it would buy Hospira (HSP), a maker of injectable drugs, for $90 a share in cash. The deal is the first by Pfizer since it walked away from a merger with AstraZeneca last year.

Oil continued its climb today, moving up 4% to reestablish itself at the $50/barrel mark. This made well for energy stocks across the board.

In earnings news, Sprint (S) reported a loss during its Q3 of 2014, but the wireless carrier said it added nearly 1 million new customers during the same timeframe. Apparently, that was enough to send the stock up 5.2% to $4.82 on the day.

In the EuroZone, Greece’s new left-wing government is insisting it will stick to its anti-austerity agenda; hours after the European Central Bank tightened the screws on Athens by withdrawing a key borrowing option for the country’s banks. Greek stocks dropped 3% on the news.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight enjoyed the newly found upward momentum by closing higher with healthcare (XLV) leading the pack. 2 new highs were made and 9 are now positioned on the plus side YTD.

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Stocks End Mixed Amidst Renewed Oil Drop

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks closed mixed in volatile trading as oil prices broke a four-day rally and plunged almost 9%. In addition, investors pulled back amid concerns over a mixed batch of economic and earnings reports and news that the European Central Bank lifted a waiver on using Greek debt as collateral.

Crude oil’s four-day, 20% move hit a slick spot, ending a brief rally in oil stocks. West Texas Intermediate crude, which recently jumped 7% to close above $50 a barrel for the first time in weeks, fell 8.7% back down to $48.45 a barrel. The slide on the day, which was the largest since November, came after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude supplies rose to more than 413 million barrels last week. That’s the highest level for January in more than 80 years.

Over the past six trading days, the market has gone up and down via three gains and three losses. Analysts are saying that the volatility is tied to uncertainty over corporate earnings, falling oil prices and a stronger dollar, which has pinched companies’ profits and forced investors to second-guess their expectations.

While the week began well, it shall be interesting to see how it wraps up on Thursday and Friday.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight were mixed with only 2 of them gaining on the day, however, one of them made a new yearly high as you can see in section 2.

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Equities Continue To Rally On Jump In Oil Prices

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

February is so far proving to be a healthy antidote to a dismal start to 2015. The market gains continued today on top of Monday’s strong rally as the Dow jumped almost 200 points, putting its two-day total to 501 points. That’s the best two-day gain for the blue-chip index since Jan. 7-8.

Oil prices were a big focus today. Prices on the U.S. market surged as much as 7%, to close at $53.05 a barrel in New York. After a seven-month drop of more than 50%, speculation is rife that oil prices might have found the “bottom of the barrel” so to speak and thus may be moving towards a price increase. Of course, energy stocks such as Exxon-Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) posted big gains today.

We heard some good news from Europe today. Hopes for a deal between Greece and its European creditors got a boost after the country’s new government backed away from demands to write off a chunk of its bailout loans, a prospect that had horrified creditors and investors. Greek stocks led a European market rally therafter. The Athens stock exchange rose as Greek bond yields eased, which is a sign investors are less worried about default. The Euro Stoxx index gained nearly 1%.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight joined the party and closed higher with XLY leading the group sporting a +2.12% gain. 7 of these ETFs have now marched into positive territory YTD as the table in section 2 shows.

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Stocks Post Late Day Rally To Kickoff February

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The first month of 2015 was not kind to stocks. Based on the S&P 500 performance, stocks were 3% lower. January has been known for setting the tone for the rest of the year, but fear not, because the markets tend to do well in February given that they have gained an average of 3.5% for the past five Februaries.

January was a big month for tech stock news, led by Apple (AAPL) reporting their largest monthly profit ever. However, there may be turbulent waters ahead for the fruit company that has $178 billion in cash and investments. The company announced a $6.5 billion debt offering Monday, but according to news reports today, the maker of electronic gadgets is already on the hook for $43 billion in total debt. Investors are keeping an eye on the leverage environment at Apple, mostly due to the fact that the purpose of the debt appears to be for financing stock buybacks and dividends.

On the flip side of energy, one of the remaining themes plaguing investors’ minds has been the price of oil. While the recent downtrend in oil prices may scare some, many analysts say that lower prices will ultimately “fuel” consumer spending and thus economic growth.

In international news, stocks in Europe were mixed, with declines in Spanish and Italian shares as Greece seeks to end its existing debt deal. Data pointed to weak January growth in euro zone factory activity.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight recuperated from last week’s sell-off and rallied late in the session. YTD, 4 of them are now showing green numbers.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 1/30/2015

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 410 ETFs, of which currently 196 (last week 244) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 34 ETFs (last week 41) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 191 (last week 291) above the line and 629 below it out of the 846 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.