Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 03/10/2016

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, March 10, 2016

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If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 11/13/2015

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in above chart) has recently crawled above its long term trend line (red) and finally generated a new “Buy” signal effective 11/3/15. The market subsequently dropped, and we exited again on 11/13/15. As of today, the TTI remains below its trend line by -0.80%, which means we are in cash on the sidelines.

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Draghi’s Bazooka Backfires—Lots Of Noise, No Result

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

There was a lot of movement in the markets today that only resulted in minimal changes at the closing bell. Markets stayed flat after a roller coaster ride of reactions to reports from the ECB and decisions regarding oil.

Lots of buzz about the European Union today! News came in that the European Central Bank cut its deposit rate further into negative territory, expanded its bond-buying program and lowered the benchmark refinancing rate to zero. The bank cut its deposit rate to -0.4% from -0.3% and the main refinancing rate was cut by 5 points to 0%, at a meeting in Frankfurt.

Wall Street is still hoping the ECB will deliver on its promises to inject fresh stimulus into the ailing eurozone economy and spark a much-needed rise in dangerously low inflation. For the time being, the positive market reaction in Europe lasted about 15 minutes before the indexes tanked with the German DAX vacillating intra-day over 5%.

Crude oil declined on reports a meeting between major oil producers set for March 20 was unlikely to happen.

In the domestic economy, jobless claims offered a boost of optimism for investors as they fell to a five-month low of 259,000, suggesting layoffs are shrinking and the minimum wage labor market is on a steady footing.

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Seven Years Since The Last Bear Market Low

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Spanning headlines today were 7-year anniversary nods to the bull market. Stocks gained slightly as the bear market rebound that has been in place since February 11  is trying to continue with investors latching on to recent data hoping that the the U.S. is not headed for an imminent recession.

In M&A News, Facebook (F) was in focus today as it is heating up competition with Snapchat via the purchase of Masquerade. Masquerade makes imaging software that jazzes up videos and selfies with fun filters, masks and other special effects. The acquisition is part of Facebook’s ongoing push to capture the youth vote by giving users the ability to add filters, text, emojis and stickers to photos and videos. The purchase price was not disclosed.

Wall Street will be looking ahead to a key meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) tomorrow. Investors expect the ECB deliver on its promises to deliver more stimulus measures by pulling out the big bazooka to help counteract weak growth and tepid inflation in the eurozone. The ECB is also expected to push interest rates deeper into negative territory. Any disappointment will likely be met with a sell-off.

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Dow Snaps 5-Day Win Streak

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Yesterday, I pointed out that investors would be closely watching a slew of economic data this week, one piece of which was China’s trade numbers. Well, the numbers came in today and were disappointing to say the least.

Imports fell 13% and exports dropped a whopping 25%. That is a big number and Wall Street reacted accordingly and all 3 major indexes closed in negative territory. The weak data point reminded investors that the slowdown in the world’s second biggest economy remains an issue for global growth.

In the oil and gas world, we Chevron Corp (CVXN) said today that the company will cut its budget by at least 17% for the next two years. The reason being is to save money given that crude prices sit near 10-year lows.

While oil made a slight comeback over the past 2-3 weeks, it seems that it was just a fluke, as reality took over and the black gold moved back to about $36 a barrel today.

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Monday Slowly Came And Went; Lots Data Due This Week

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks are showing signs of fatigue to kick off the new week, ending mixed Monday after a robust three-week short-covering rally, the biggest ever in history, that helped trim the big losses suffered early in 2016. The Dow and S&P 500 gained minimal and the Nasdaq slipped 2%.

Crude Oil received a lot of attention today from investors. The “black gold” commodity jumped up above $40 at one point today and closed at $37.98, which marked a 5.73% gain.

There is a hearty portion of economic data on deck this week to move markets. On Tuesday, Wall Street gets the February reading on small business optimism, on Wednesday January wholesale inventories, to name a few. Investors remain focused on the state of both the domestic and global economies, China in particular as its recent slowed growth has been sending markets into turmoil with ease.

Also coming up, global investors will be closely watching the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday, when the eurozone central bank is expected to further push short-term borrowing rates into negative territory in an effort to jump start growth and boost low inflation readings.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 03/04/2016

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 381 ETFs, of which currently 99 (last week 55) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher. Volume figures can change in a hurry, so be sure to check first before investing.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of 98 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 22 ETFs (last week 13) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 59 (last week 32) above the line and 721 below it out of the 780 that I follow.

Take a look:

  1. ETF Master Cutline Report
  2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report
  3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.