Quiet Monday After Easter; GM Moves Towards Autopilot

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The major indexes closed moderately higher after a day with little volatility. Perhaps the hesitance in markets today was the fact that investors are waiting to react to more economic news this week that will provide further insight into the state of the slumping domestic economy.

Today, we received reports on personal income, consumer spending and pending home sales. Personal income data showed a slight 0.2% gain. Consumer spending was in line with expectations and pending home sales rose 3.5%, which topped expectations and signaled that the real estate recovery continues.

On Tuesday, we’ll hear March’s consumer confidence survey, but the big data point comes in on Friday when the government will issue its March jobs report. If the report comes in strong, it could signal a sooner than expected rate hike in April.

In M&A news today, General Motors (GM) received a solid regulatory approval to acquire Cruise Automation, a 3 year old startup company that has developed an autopilot system that GM is drooling over. Cruise has a device that will enable drivers to give complete control of the accelerator, brakes and steering to the car. The purchase price of the company was not reported, but rumors allege that GM paid around $1 billion.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 03/24/2016

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 381 ETFs, of which currently 176 (last week 225) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher. Volume figures can change in a hurry, so be sure to check first before investing.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of 98 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 44 ETFs (last week 54) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 125 (last week 180) above the line and 655 below it out of the 780 that I follow.

Take a look:

  1. ETF Master Cutline Report
  2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report
  3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Is The Authenticity Of GDP Data Questionable?

Ulli Market Review Contact

ManWhile recent GDP readings have showed inconsistency repeatedly, investors should not ignore GDP readings totally, said IHS chief economist Nariman Behravesh.

But there are at least three different problems with the GDP data series. The first is seasonality; there are huge swings in seasonality – for instance the first-quarter data is almost always underestimated. The government doesn’t seem to know how to deal with the first-quarter GDP data – whether it’s bad weather or something else.

If investors go back in history, the GDP data is always way off, especially the first-quarter reading because of seasonal adjustment problems. Secondly, the Bureau of Labor Statistics allows the inventory numbers to swing the headline GDP reading a lot because inventory numbers are highly volatile. While the GDP reading bounces around, employment readings have been fairly steady.

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New ETFs On The Block: Wisdomtree CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Strategy Fund (PUTW)

Ulli Put Option Strategy Contact

InvestingInstitutional investors have been selling or writing put options for many years to boost income when markets are placid and trend sideways.

Put options are financial derivative contracts that gives the buyer/owner the ‘right’ to sell an underlying asset (e.g. stocks) at a pre-agreed strike price on a stipulated date (e.g. one month/ three months from the date of purchase).

The seller/writer of put option is obligated to buy the asset if the option buyer chooses to exercise the put option on the stipulated date. The buyer of the put option pays a small premium for buying the ‘right,’ and if the contract reaches expiration without being exercised, the put writer/seller gets to keep 100 percent of the premium.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 03/24/2016

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, March 24, 2016

TOC010716

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 11/13/2015

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in above chart) has recently crawled above its long term trend line (red) and finally generated a new “Buy” signal effective 11/3/15. The market subsequently dropped, and we exited again on 11/13/15. As of today, the TTI has just crawled above its trend line by +0.27%. This is move is not enough to generate a new Buy signal. Stay tuned for daily updates and any changes to our position.

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For March 24, 2016

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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https://theetfbully.com/2016/03/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-03242016/

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Market Commentary

MARKETS UNCHANGED FOR THE DAY BUT DOWN FOR THE WEEK

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Heading into the long weekend, U.S. stocks showed weakness amid renewed talks of a coming interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, a resurgent dollar and falling oil prices, putting an end to their five-week winning streak.

Investor sentiment has cooled following the terror attacks in Brussels as well as comments the past two days from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard that hinted that the next interest rate hike could come sooner than investors have anticipated.

We were also digesting economic news. Durable goods, or sales of long-lasting, big-ticket items like refrigerators and washing machines, fell 2.8% in February. The weak reading suggests “that companies and households are still very cautious in their spending,” Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA told clients in a report.

As a side note, Thursday marked the end of the trading week. U.S. financial markets are closed Friday in observance of Good Friday.

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