Silver Surges, Apple Slips, And Crypto Comes Alive

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets kicked off the day on a mixed note as U.S. and Chinese officials met in London, hoping to make headway on their ongoing trade disputes.

The talks stemmed from a lengthy phone call between Trump and Xi last week, with both sides aiming to avoid a full-blown trade war. As a goodwill gesture, both countries agreed to temporary tariff cuts last month while negotiations continue.

Investors are also keeping a close eye on inflation this week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) drops Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday, and a fresh read on Consumer Sentiment.

Midday optimism didn’t last long—stocks lost steam by the close, with only the Nasdaq managing a modest gain. Apple shares slipped after its much-anticipated developer conference failed to impress.

The dollar didn’t budge, but crypto made a move. Bitcoin surged over 4%, climbing toward $109K and pulling Ether up with it.

In the bond market, 10-year yields stayed flat after last week’s surge. Gold inched up slightly, but silver stole the spotlight, jumping to nearly $37—its highest level since 2011.

As ZeroHedge noted, if silver clears that level, the path to its all-time high of $50 might be wide open.

So, here’s the big question: 

Is silver finally ready to shine after all these years?

Continue reading…

2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)

Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.

This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.

Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

With no real progress on a U.S.-China trade deal, the markets drifted through the day without much direction. By the close, there wasn’t a whole lot to show—no big gains, no major losses.

Our TTIs bounced around a bit too, but in the end, the changes were pretty minor and didn’t really move the needle.

This is how we closed 06/09/2025:

Domestic TTI: +1.56% above its M/A (prior close +1.55%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.

International TTI: +6.66% above its M/A (prior close +6.87%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.

All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 06/06/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (181 vs. 186 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For June 6, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

GOLDILOCKS JOBS REPORT LIFTS MARKETS—BUT INFLATION CLOUDS LOOM

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The much-anticipated May jobs report landed with a bit of a surprise—U.S. payrolls rose by 139,000, beating expectations of 125,000.

While that’s a step down from April’s revised 147,000, it wasn’t enough to push the Fed into action. Unemployment held steady, and the labor market still looks pretty balanced.

Markets loved it. The S&P 500 broke back above the 6,000 mark for the first time since February, and the Dow finally clawed its way out of the red for 2025.

Tesla helped fuel the rally, bouncing nearly 4% after Thursday’s 14% nosedive. Big tech names like Nvidia, Meta, and Apple also chipped in with modest gains.

Earlier in the week, some data hinted at a possible economic slowdown, raising questions about how ongoing tariff talks and the Fed’s next move (June 17–18) might play out. For now, rate-cut hopes have cooled. Trump called for a full-point cut, but traders aren’t buying it.

A short squeeze added extra juice to the rally, especially for the Mag7 stocks, which continued to outpace the rest of the S&P 500. Small caps and the Nasdaq led the charge for the week.

Bond yields jumped on the strong jobs data, lifting across the board. The dollar, despite Friday’s bounce, logged its weakest weekly close since July 2023. Gold pulled back slightly at the close but still managed a small weekly gain.

Bitcoin dipped a bit over the past five sessions, briefly testing $101K before rebounding toward $105K.

One thing that stood out: a growing divergence between global liquidity and the S&P 500.

Some analysts, including those at ZeroHedge, see this as a sign of potential central bank reflation. Translation? More inflation could be on the way.

So, here’s the big question: Are you positioned for a world where inflation might be making a comeback? Got gold, silver, or crypto in your corner?

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 06/05/2025

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, June 5, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +0.83% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

Read More

Silver Shines, Tesla Tumbles: A Wild Day On Wall Street

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The day started off on shaky ground, with markets slipping early as fresh trade headlines put a lid on any bullish momentum.

China’s Foreign Ministry said Presidents Trump and Xi had a phone call—initiated by Trump—but details were scarce. Trump called it a “very positive conclusion,” but investors weren’t exactly buying it.

On the economic front, jobless claims ticked up to 247,000 last week—8,000 more than the previous week and above the expected 236,000. Combined with weaker-than-expected ADP private payroll data, all eyes are now on tomorrow’s official jobs report, where the forecast is for a 125,000 gain.

Then things really unraveled. The ongoing slugfest between Trump and Musk escalated dramatically, sending Tesla shares tumbling over 17%. Retail investors, many of whom had been buying the recent dips, got caught in the crossfire. The MAG 7 stocks underperformed the rest of the S&P 500, as the tweet storm reached a fever pitch.

Bond yields reversed course and climbed into the close. Gold started strong but faded, ending lower. The dollar took a wild ride—first dropping, then surging. Bitcoin lost its footing and fell to a three-week low.

The one bright spot? Silver, which spiked 3.5% and stood out in an otherwise gloomy session.

With all this turbulence, the big question now is: Will tomorrow’s jobs report calm the markets—or add more fuel to the fire?

Read More

Gold Shines, Dollar Sinks: Is The Labor Market Cracking?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the market

Despite a weak jobs report, stocks opened higher. ADP reported that private sector hiring added just 37,000 jobs in May—way below the already-lowered April figure of 60,000 and far short of the 110,000 economists were expecting. That’s raising eyebrows ahead of Friday’s big non-farm payroll report, which is forecast to show a gain of 125,000.

The disappointing data put a dent in the “strong labor market” narrative. In fact, the surprise index dropped to levels we haven’t seen since before the 2024 election. That prompted a fiery tweetstorm from Trump, pressuring Fed Chair Powell to cut rates.

Tech stocks tried to keep the mood upbeat. Nvidia and Broadcom led the charge again, helping the Nasdaq close in the green. But the Dow and S&P 500 couldn’t keep up and ended the day mixed.

Meanwhile, bond yields plunged—especially the 30-year, which saw one of its biggest one-day drops in a year and a half. The dollar followed suit, hitting new lows not seen since July 2023.

That weakness gave gold a boost, sending it soaring past $3,400 intraday. Bitcoin dipped slightly but found support around $105K.

Now, all eyes are on Friday’s payroll report. Will it confirm a slowdown—or surprise us all?

Continue reading…

2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)

Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.

This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.

Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

The Dow and S&P 500 lost steam after a promising open and ended the day pretty much flat. The Nasdaq, however, managed to stay in the green, showing a bit of bullish energy.

As for our TTIs, they went in different directions—the international markets showed some improvement, while the domestic side pulled back a bit.

This is how we closed 06/04/2025:

Domestic TTI: +1.10% above its M/A (prior close +1.33%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.

International TTI: +6.66% above its M/A (prior close +6.34%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.

All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.

———————————————————-

WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.