Hot PPI Report Halts Rally, But Big Tech Powers Market Recovery

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks stumbled out of the gate today after a much hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation report rattled traders and threatened the recent rally. The major indexes clawed their way back from early losses but by the closing bell were basically stuck at flat.

The initial slide came right after July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) showed wholesale prices jumping 0.9% for the month—way above the 0.2% economists had forecast, and the biggest monthly jump in three years.

That’s got Wall Street rethinking just how soon—and how much—the Fed might be able to cut rates. Even so, fed funds futures still show nearly 93% odds of a rate cut in September, just a shade lower than before.

Despite the inflation scare, traders rotated back into big tech. Names like Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft helped the market recover from its worst levels, with the Mag7 stocks doing the heavy lifting once again.

In the rest of the market, the dollar managed a bounce (though it still looks shaky after recent losses), gold slid below a key technical level, bond yields climbed, and Bitcoin came off last night’s record high but found solid footing around $118,000.

So, was today’s flat finish just a breather before the next big move—or are traders starting to question their conviction after these mixed inflation signals?

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Bitcoin Nears New Highs As Markets Bet On Fed Cut Next Month

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The post-CPI euphoria is still alive and well—stocks kept rallying to fresh all-time highs, led by the Dow while the Nasdaq lagged a bit behind. Tech didn’t sit out, though: AMD jumped more than 6% and Apple snuck in a 1% gain.

Today’s moves build on Tuesday’s record-setting session, which was supercharged by a cooler inflation report and sent rate-cut hopes through the roof. Traders are now basically convinced—pricing in a 99% chance—that the Fed will lower rates in September.

It’s not all about inflation, either: a surprisingly strong second-quarter earnings season is helping fuel the optimism. Earnings reports have slowed for a minute, but next week big retail names step up—so expect plenty of market buzz.

Looking ahead, tomorrow’s Producer Price Index (PPI) gives us another piece of the inflation puzzle, and all eyes are turning to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole meeting (August 21–23) for clues on their next moves.

A big short squeeze pushed the whole market higher this afternoon, but interestingly, the Mag 7 stocks lagged most of the S&P 500.

Bond yields slipped, the dollar dropped below a key level, and gold managed just a modest gain despite all that.

Bitcoin’s on a tear again, topping $122,000—maybe finally ready to hit a new all-time high.

With so much optimism and momentum, is this rally just getting started, or will the upcoming data or Fed chatter throw another curveball at the market?

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Cooler CPI Ignites Broad Rally As Rate-Cut Bets Firm

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks ripped higher right out of the gate after a cooler CPI print eased worries that tariffs would juice inflation and spoil the party.

Headline CPI came in at 2.7% year over year vs. 2.8% expected, and core was 3.1% vs. 3.0%—not perfect, but “good enough” for a relief rally. Rate-cut odds for next month ticked up, and traders are now leaning toward multiple cuts into year-end.

Tariff headlines are still buzzing, even with a 90-day pause on higher China levies, but the market basically shrugged.

A big short squeeze helped, with the Mag 7 and the rest of the S&P 500 actually moving together for once.

The dollar dumped on the CPI surprise, gold weirdly went nowhere, bond yields whipsawed (down on the print, then back toward flat), and Bitcoin inched higher without breaking out.

So, with inflation cooling just enough to calm nerves, is this the start of the next leg up—or do tariffs, valuations, and late-summer chop still have a say?

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Stocks Tread Water Ahead Of Big Inflation Reports

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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U.S. stocks barely budged today, with the major indexes hovering near record territory as traders gear up for an eventful week of inflation reports.

After the Nasdaq hit new highs and the S&P 500 flirted with another milestone last week, investors are in a holding pattern—breathing a little easier thanks to the bounce-back from the previous week’s jobs-related selloff.

A growing chorus believes the Fed might pivot to more aggressive rate cuts as the year goes on, fueling some optimism.

But beneath the surface, there’s plenty of handwringing about stretched valuations, a weakening economic outlook, lingering tariff drama, and the usual August market doldrums. Honestly, a touch of sideways action here wouldn’t be the worst thing.

All eyes are locked on the upcoming CPI and PPI numbers, since hotter-than-expected inflation could really shake up the Fed’s plans—and the CPI report will be the one to watch for big policy clues.

For now, the market finished up a tame, directionless session with a modest dip into the red, while the Mag7 stocks swung harder than most.

Bond yields barely moved, spot gold slipped after Trump clarified there’ll be no tariffs on the metal, and the dollar perked up but remains mired in a bear stretch.

Bitcoin had a brief spurt above $122,000 overnight before settling back toward $120,000 as the session wrapped up.

With everyone playing the waiting game ahead of these key inflation numbers—the question is are we on the verge of a breakout, or should we buckle up for more choppy trading ahead?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 08/08/2025

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Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (231 vs. 257 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 8, 2025

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

NASDAQ LEADS SYNCHRONIZED RALLY AS GOLD FUTURES HIT NEW HIGHS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks kicked off Friday in sync, with all the major indexes climbing together and eyeing another winning week—thanks, in large part, to the Nasdaq’s strong run.

Gold futures, already on a roll this week as traders bet on a possible Fed rate cut, blasted to record highs following a Financial Times report about a possible levy on imported gold bars.

That news also juiced gold mining stocks, sending the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) to a 52-week high, even as the spot price of gold barely budged during regular trading hours.

Overnight, President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs kicked in, with some of the steepest rates hitting countries like Syria (41%), Laos, and Myanmar (40%).

While the immediate impact of tariffs seems to be less turbulent, traders are still trying to figure out how ongoing trade policies could shake up corporate plans—and what it’ll mean for consumers down the line.

Meanwhile, Apple helped put some extra shine on the “Mag7” tech giants and semiconductor stocks this week since the administration exempted big names from new tariffs. The Mag7 basket surged over 5% for the week, outpacing the rest of the S&P 500 by a wide margin. The Nasdaq notched its best weekly performance since June.

Elsewhere, gold futures racked up gains in five of the past six sessions and hit fresh records, with the premium over spot prices also hitting an all-time high.

Bitcoin bounced back toward its own record highs but is still hemmed in on the charts. The dollar kept sinking even as bond yields pushed higher.

With tech leading the charge again, can this rally keep rolling, or will next week’s run of key economic reports—like CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales—throw a wrench into the works?

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