[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

It was a turnaround kind of day for the markets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq started strong—both riding early gains—while the Dow lagged, dragged down by IBM’s 10% tumble after missing revenue targets.

Big moves from the tech giants shaped the action: Alphabet popped 2% after beating Q2 revenue estimates, giving a boost to both the S&P and Nasdaq. Tesla, on the other hand, dropped 7% as auto sales disappointed for the second quarter in a row, putting a lid on broader index gains.

Traders also kept one eye on the ongoing standoff between Trump and the Fed. With Trump set to visit the Fed tomorrow, the tension is ramping up, especially as he keeps the pressure on Chairman Powell.

Helping sentiment this morning was a Financial Times report—confirmed by Bloomberg—that the U.S. is nearing a trade deal with the EU, which could see tariffs on imports climb to 15%.

As the day wore on, enthusiasm fizzled. A midday short squeeze gave the indexes a quick lift, but only the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to eke out slim gains.

Small caps lagged, and bond yields rose—giving the dollar a modest bump but dragging gold prices lower. Meanwhile, Bitcoin bounced back after a rough overnight stretch.

All in all, it was a session stuck in uncertainty, with the market treading water once the closing bell rang.

With earnings season heating up, Fed drama brewing, and global trade talks hanging in the balance, will markets finally break out of this holding pattern—or are we in for more sideways churn?

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

Stocks got a jolt this morning after President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan, sending the Dow up more than 200 points out of the gate.

Hopes are running high that this “massive” agreement, which introduces a 15% tariff on Japanese goods instead of the 25% that was originally on the table, could spark even more deals down the road. Trump also mentioned ongoing talks with the EU, aiming for another breakthrough before the August 1 deadline.

The S&P 500 followed the Dow’s lead, but the Nasdaq took its time, barely moving until it finally got a lift later in the session.

All eyes are now on Alphabet and Tesla, with both set to report earnings after the closing bell. As the first of the mega-cap techs to release results, their numbers could set the tone for the rest of earnings season.

Elsewhere, market sentiment brightened thanks to the Japan deal, even though U.S. existing home sales fell short of expectations and took some wind out of the macro surprise index.

The most shorted stocks had a wild ride but ended up helping the broader market, despite rising bond yields.

The dollar continued to slide, but that didn’t give a boost to gold this time, which ended the day lower. Bitcoin dipped but found its footing at around $118,000.

With so much riding on the next big earnings reports, will tomorrow’s market direction hinge on how Alphabet and Tesla perform after the bell?

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

Today’s market did a complete 180 from yesterday. Early optimism fizzled fast for the tech sector, dragging the Nasdaq lower, while the Dow held strong and managed to notch a gain by the closing bell.

The main culprit? Chip stocks took a hit, with both Nvidia and Broadcom sliding by almost 3%—fallout from a Wall Street Journal report that a colossal $500 billion AI project is facing serious delays and is scaling back its ambitions for now.

Earnings painted a mixed picture. NXP Semiconductors posted results that let down investors, sending the stock 1% lower. Over in aerospace and defense, Lockheed Martin stumbled a hefty 5% after revealing big program losses and slashing its profit forecast for the year.

Tobacco giant Philip Morris also slipped, dropping 7% despite beating earnings estimates, as traders focused on missed revenue targets and forward guidance.

With so many crosscurrents, traders are now glued to management commentary about macro uncertainty, tariffs, and, of course, what’s next for AI—a theme that’s moving both markets and stock prices with every headline.

By day’s end, only the Dow stayed green. The S&P 500 flatlined, and the Nasdaq stayed down for the count.

The much-watched Mag 7 basket of mega-cap techs underperformed the other S&P 500 names, breaking its recent streak of dominance.

Bond yields drifted lower, offering some support for stocks, while the dollar continued its losing streak. Gold bucked the broader action, charging above $3,400 for a solid daily win.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin bounced around but managed to rally past $120,000 before the end of the U.S. session—keeping its curious pattern of lagging global liquidity by about three months alive.

So, with everything swirling—AI delays, chip jitters, and macro worries—will the “risk-on” mood come roaring back, or are we in for more surprises as earnings season rolls on? And for crypto watchers: Is the long-awaited $200,000 Bitcoin within reach this cycle?  

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

The major indexes got off to a running start this morning, with the Nasdaq leading the charge. Hopes for some good news on the trade front and more upbeat earnings reports fueled the mood, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq scored fresh all-time intraday highs.

Big tech was in the spotlight again—Alphabet, Meta, and Apple kicked things off on a positive note, setting the vibe and dragging the rest of the market along for the ride. All eyes are now on Apple and Tesla as the first two Mag 7 names set to report earnings; if they can top expectations, it could add a serious boost to growth in the next quarter.

Trade talks were a hot topic. Commerce Secretary Lutnik stuck to his guns on that August 1 deadline for countries to start paying tariffs, but also left the door open for future negotiations, saying countries can still reach out after the date passes.

But it wasn’t all sunshine. The Conference Board’s latest leading indicators stumbled for the sixth time in the past seven months—a bit of a reality check as seasonal trends look set to flip from bullish to bearish, and global trade uncertainty creeps a bit higher.

An afternoon bout of selling took the wind out of the indexes’ sails, wiping away the morning gains and leaving the Dow in the red. But the Mag 7 basket once again outperformed the rest of the S&P names, keeping a bit of spark alive.

It was a busy day elsewhere too: bond yields fell across the board, the dollar slipped back to last week’s lows (helping gold jump above $3,400 with a 1.54% daily gain), and Bitcoin did the pump-and-dump routine, ending up about where it started.

ZeroHedge pointed out an interesting parallel between this year’s S&P 500 and last year’s chart action. With seasonal trends lining up, is the market about to repeat history—or are we in for some surprises as summer heats up?

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