[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

Tech stocks took the lead today, helping the market bounce back after the Dow’s two-day slide.

Nvidia stole the spotlight—not just for its 2% gain, but for becoming the first company ever to hit a $4 trillion market cap. That’s a milestone worth pausing for.

Other big tech names like Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet joined the rally, riding the renewed wave of excitement around AI. Meanwhile, traders mostly shrugged off the latest tariff chatter.

The Fed minutes were the day’s main event, but they didn’t offer much clarity—just more of the same uncertainty.

Still, the market found its footing after a midday dip sparked by Trump’s new round of tariff letters. Dip buyers jumped in quickly, especially in the Mag7 names, where a short squeeze added some extra fuel.

Elsewhere, the dollar stayed flat while bond yields slipped. Gold clawed its way back above $3,300 after briefly dipping below that level earlier.

Copper had another solid session, up 1.6%, but Bitcoin stole the show—surging toward its all-time high of $112K and closing at its highest level ever at the end of U.S. market hours. (Of course, Bitcoin never really “closes.”)

As I’ve said before, Bitcoin seems to be moving in lockstep with global liquidity trends—and this chart backs that up.

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

Yesterday’s tariff drama spilled into today’s session, leaving the markets wobbling as they tried to find their footing.

The major indexes mostly drifted sideways, with little conviction either way. President Trump once again pushed back the tariff deadline and hinted at some wiggle room for countries open to negotiating, which added to the uncertainty.

Some traders are starting to think the worst of the tariff battle might be behind us, and that the new measures may not be as harsh as originally feared. Still, doubt continues to hang over the market, keeping things sluggish.

Early gains from heavyweights like Nvidia and Tesla gave some hope, but Tesla later reversed course. Big banks like JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs also took a hit after a downgrade from HSBC, making them the day’s worst performers.

On the flip side, copper had a standout day. Thanks to Trump’s plan to slap a 50% tariff on copper imports, the metal surged over 10% before pulling back slightly. Our copper ETF still locked in a solid +8.2% gain for the day.

Elsewhere, bond yields kept climbing, gold dipped but found support around $3,300, and the dollar got a boost from those rising yields. Bitcoin bounced around but managed to close in the green.

So, here we are—stuck in a sideways market, even though we’re in what’s usually the strongest part of the year.

Will a softening in trade tensions be enough to spark a rally, or will it take some Fed magic and falling yields to get things moving again?

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

Markets stumbled out of the gate today, weighed down by the same old story—trade uncertainty.

Despite Treasury Secretary Bessent teasing some upcoming announcements within the next 48 hours, he left out key details like which countries might be involved. That didn’t do much to calm nerves, especially with Trump’s 90-day tariff pause set to expire this week.

Adding fuel to the fire, Trump floated the idea of slapping an extra 10% tariff on countries aligned with BRICS, calling them out for “Anti-American policies.” That didn’t sit well with traders.

By the end of the day, the market stayed underwater. Gold was the lone bright spot, bouncing back midday to finish slightly in the green.

On the equity side, Small Caps took the biggest hit, while the S&P 500 held up a bit better. Mega Caps gave back a good chunk of Thursday’s gains, and Tesla slid after Elon Musk announced plans to launch a new political party.

Bond yields ticked higher, giving the dollar a boost. Gold managed to hold its ground, and Bitcoin followed a similar path—starting strong but fading by the close.

Historically, July has averaged a +1.67% return going all the way back to 1928. So, the big question is: Will history repeat itself this time around?

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

The markets kicked off the day with a bang, rallying right out of the gate after this morning’s jobs report came in stronger than expected—quite the turnaround from yesterday’s weak ADP numbers.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000, beating forecasts of 110,000. On top of that, May’s numbers were revised upward to 144,000. The unemployment rate also dipped to 4.1%, defying expectations of a rise to 4.3%.

That solid labor data sent bond yields jumping and cooled hopes for a rate cut anytime soon. Right now, futures traders are putting the odds at about 93% that the Fed will keep rates steady at their next meeting.

Adding to the mix, the approval of the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” along with strong factory orders and upbeat service sector data, is painting a picture of an economy that’s still expanding. Translation? Rate cuts are likely off the table for now.

Still, traders seemed to like what they saw. The major indexes posted strong gains for this holiday-shortened week, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both closing at record highs—helped along by a weeklong short squeeze.

Bond yields surged, the dollar slipped a bit, and gold managed to close higher for the week despite a pullback today. Precious metals overall are still riding a wave of bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin made a run at its all-time high but couldn’t quite stick the landing, fading into the close.

So, with seasonals pointing to more upside, the big question is: Will stocks keep climbing as we head deeper into summer?

Happy 4^th of July!

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