Tough Start For Stocks, But Gold And Silver Shine

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got off to a rough start this morning and just never caught a break, kicking off what’s usually a tricky month for the market.

The major indexes finished solidly in the red, as traders grappled with fresh tariff drama and rising bond yields that sent Wall Street on edge—the 10-year pushed up to 4.27%, making everyone a bit jumpy.

Pressure ramped up after a federal appeals court ruled most of Trump’s global tariffs illegal, shifting focus to Congress—and prompting talk that the US might have to refund a big chunk of tariff revenue, which isn’t great news for government finances or market sentiment.

Trump wasn’t happy, calling the decision “Highly Partisan,” and said he’ll take it up with the Supreme Court. The combo of legal uncertainty and fiscal worries made it even tougher for stocks to gain traction today.

On a brighter note, the way I see it, things looked much better if you were invested in gold, silver, copper, or bitcoin—all of which rallied hard, as some of us were fortunate enough to have taken shelter outside of equities.

Gold hit a new all-time high, silver jumped 2.7%, copper rallied 1.2%, and bitcoin kept its uptrend alive. Even the dollar got a little bounce, defying recent weakness and hinting that traders were hunting for safer ground.

I believe the next big focus—for both traders and the Fed—is Friday’s jobs report, since it could tip the scales for the mid-month interest rate decision.

Will this bout of market turbulence turn out to be just another brief scare, or is September shaping up to be as tough as history suggests?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 08/29/2025

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Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (289 vs. 292 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 29, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

WALL STREET PAUSES AFTER RECORD RUN—IS THE RALLY LOSING STEAM?

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The way I see it, today’s market action was a classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the news.” After a week of record highs, Wall Street cooled off, with the major indexes slipping on this last trading day of August.

I believe this pullback reflects a mix of profit-taking and renewed caution around inflation and trade policy.

Surprisingly, despite NVIDIA’s blockbuster earnings—the stock fell over 3% today, weighed down by weaker data center guidance and news that Alibaba is developing its own AI chip. Among the Magnificent Seven, Tesla and Apple lagged, while Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon held up better.

I think the group’s dominance remains intact, with earnings growing 3x faster than the rest of the S&P 500.

On the macro front, the Fed’s independence is under scrutiny. President Trump’s attempt to fire Governor Lisa Cook has triggered legal battles and raised concerns about political interference.

It’s my view that this drama could complicate the Fed’s path forward, especially with rate cuts still expected in September.

Bond yields were steady, but lower for August, with the 10-year yield, barely budging as traders digested the latest PCE inflation data, which came in at 2.9% year-over-year. That’s the fastest pace since February, and I believe it’s keeping the Fed in a tough spot—cut too soon, and inflation could reignite.

The US dollar stayed about even, but dropped for the month, reflecting global currency shifts and uncertainty around Fed policy. I think traders are waiting for clarity before making bold moves.

Meanwhile, gold and silver rose, both gaining nicely as investors sought safety amid macro and political noise. These moves suggest a cautious bid for hedges, especially with September historically being volatile.

Bitcoin traded around $108k, yet lagged gold for the month, as the technical downtrend remains in place. Sentiment is neutral, and I believe crypto traders are watching macro signals closely before re-entering with conviction.

So, with markets digesting record highs, political drama, and inflation data, I have to ask:

Are we entering a healthy consolidation—or is this the start of a deeper correction as we are heading into the toughest month for US equities?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/28/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, August 28, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +6.69% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Small Caps Lead, Gold Ticks Up, Bitcoin Rebounds

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Today’s session reflected a blend of cautious optimism and earnings digestion. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closed at new record highs for the first time in 2025.

I believe traders spent the day weighing Nvidia’s latest “good but not mind-blowing” earnings and a surprise upward revision to US GDP. Surprisingly, the Russell 2000 outpaced the big indexes, notching a solid gain on renewed interest in small caps.

As for the Fed, odds of a September rate cut remain high—around 88%—and the market seems comfortable with the central bank’s slower, steadier approach. The way I see it, uncertainty about Fed independence is lingering thanks to recent headlines, but it hasn’t provoked much anxiety among stock investors.

Bond yields barely moved, signaling no major change in rate expectations. The dollar fell, reflecting mild risk-on sentiment. Gold pushed towards its record highs, as some investors grabbed a bit more safety, given the recent political drama and steady Fed outlook.

Mag 7 stocks were mixed: Nvidia slid just a bit after earnings, while Broadcom popped over 1% and others like Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Tesla showed slight increases, with Meta bucking the trend and dropping. I think this split shows traders are still sorting winners and losers in the AI and tech trade—no clear leadership, but plenty of action.

On the digital side, bitcoin managed to snap back about 1% after recent weakness, suggesting traders are getting more comfortable with risk again.

With August winding down, I believe the market’s resilience is impressive—but with rates, tech, and politics all swirling, my question is: will this bullish streak hold up as we head into September, or is it just a summer fling?

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Stocks Rally As Fed’s Cautious Optimism Sparks Renewed Hope

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Today’s stock market breathed a sigh of relief after a tough week, led by a solid rally sparked by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole last week and Trump’s firing of Fed governor Cook.  

It’s my opinion Powell’s message opened the door to a possible interest-rate cut in September, which really energized investors.

The way I see it, Powell’s acknowledgment of the fragile balance between inflation and a weakening labor market gave traders reason to hope the Fed might ease soon—but he was cautious, stressing the need to wait for incoming data first. That blend of optimism and caution set the tone for today’s gains.

Bond yields eased off a bit today, which helped soothe pressure on stocks—especially the rate-sensitive sectors. Meanwhile, technology and the Mag 7 stocks bounced back with a nice lift after a rough few days earlier this week, showing some renewed faith in growth names.

The dollar took a dive, adding further fuel to risk assets, while gold extended its gains, but is still stuck in its recent sideways groove. Interestingly, Bitcoin jumped, benefiting from the overall risk-on mood among investors.

This rally is a welcome break, but the way I see it, traders are still watching Powell and upcoming data closely.

The big question remains: Is this the start of a sustained rally fueled by rate cuts, or just a short-lived relief rally before volatility returns?

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