Calm Before The Squeeze: Markets Juggle Earnings, Inflation, And Powell Rumors

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets started the day in neutral, with the major indexes barely budging as traders waited on earnings from the big banks and tried to make sense of the latest inflation data.

Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley all beat expectations, but their stock reactions were all over the place—some up, some down.

Meanwhile, June’s Producer Price Index (PPI), which gives us a sneak peek at inflation trends, came in flat. That’s a surprise, especially since many were bracing for a bump thanks to tariffs. So far, no sign of “tariff-flation.”

On the economic front, Industrial Production came in hotter than expected—up 0.3% month-over-month, which adds up to a 0.73% gain year-over-year. That’s a solid beat.

Despite the good news, markets didn’t seem too impressed. Investors were more focused on whether the Fed might have room to cut rates later this year.

The day wasn’t without drama. Stocks briefly tanked after reports from CBS and the New York Times claimed Trump was planning to fire Fed Chair Powell—rumors that were quickly denied.

That sparked a wild ride in the markets, with a big short squeeze helping stocks bounce back. Bond yields, rate-cut bets, the dollar, and gold all swung wildly too.

Gold managed to finish higher, while Bitcoin quietly kept climbing, seemingly tracking global liquidity trends.

So, with all this noise, are the markets gearing up for a breakout—or just catching their breath?

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Nvidia Lifts, Then Leaves: Markets Wobble After CPI Data

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 got off to a hot start, thanks to a 6.5% surge in Nvidia, which pushed the index to a fresh record above 6,300. But that early momentum didn’t last—by the end of the day, the S&P had slipped into the red.

The big event of the day was the June CPI report. Inflation rose 0.3% for the month, putting the annual rate at 2.7%. That’s exactly what economists expected. Core CPI (which strips out energy) came in at 2.9% year-over-year—again, right on target. But here’s the catch: both numbers were up from May, and that uptick was enough to spook traders.

So, while the data didn’t surprise on paper, the market didn’t love the direction it was heading. The Nasdaq managed to hang onto some gains, but the rest of the market faded fast.

Bank earnings were a mixed bag, and while investors are still hopeful that Q2 results will give the market a lift, today’s action didn’t offer much encouragement.

Rate cut hopes took a hit too. Tariff data showed price increases in categories like furniture, apparel, and auto parts—fueling concerns that inflation might stick around longer than expected.

Tech stocks, especially the “Magnificent 7,” were the stars of the day. But outside of that group, the broader market got smacked around. An early short squeeze fizzled out, and with it, any bullish vibes.

The U.S. dollar had a strong day, rising 0.56% as bond yields jumped. That put pressure on gold, which dipped but found some footing at its 50-day moving average.

Bitcoin also took a breather after hitting new highs yesterday. The drop came as the House failed to pass a procedural vote on three crypto bills expected this week.

And then there’s Nvidia—again. The chip giant soared over 6% on news of strong China sales, pushing its market cap past $4.2 trillion. Not bad for a day’s work.

So, the big question is: with markets near all-time highs and inflation still lurking, how much more upside is left?

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Bitcoin Blazes Ahead While Wall Street Waits On Inflation

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets kicked off the week on a down note, thanks to renewed tariff threats from Trump—this time aimed at the E.U. and Mexico with a hefty 30% rate. That stirred up some uncertainty about the economic impact, but the dip was fairly mild, as many traders believe those tariffs will eventually get negotiated down.

All eyes are now on inflation data due later this week, which should give Wall Street a clearer picture of how existing tariffs are rippling through the economy.

Starting tomorrow, the big banks will start reporting earnings, kicking off a busy week of financial updates. Expectations are generally solid—but the big question is: will strong earnings be enough to distract from the tariff drama?

Meanwhile, Bitcoin didn’t seem to care about any of that. It rallied hard over the weekend, smashing through the $123K mark before cooling off a bit to settle near $120K.

It’s still riding the wave of global liquidity and continues to cement its status as the best-performing asset of the past decade—maybe even of all time.

By the end of the day, the major indexes managed to claw their way into the green. Short sellers got squeezed, but interestingly, the Magnificent 7 stocks lagged the rest of the S&P 500.

Bond yields drifted slightly higher, gold gave up early gains to close down 0.32% (but held support at $3,350), and oil had a wild ride—first pumping, then dumping.

So, with earnings season heating up and inflation data on deck, what’s going to move the needle next?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 07/11/2025

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Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (235 vs. 256 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For July 11, 2025

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

TARIFF SHOCK ROCKS MARKETS, BUT SILVER AND BITCOIN SHINE

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Markets stumbled out of the gate today, led by the Dow, after Trump announced a surprise 35% tariff on Canadian goods—blaming fentanyl as the reason—and warned of even steeper duties if Canada retaliates. That move reignited tariff tensions and quickly erased yesterday’s recovery.

Trump didn’t stop there. He floated the idea of raising blanket tariffs on all remaining countries to 15–20%, up from the 10% level traders had grown used to. Still hanging in the air: his next move on the European Union.

Meanwhile, U.S. macro data showed a slight uptick, but it wasn’t enough to offset the renewed trade uncertainty. All major indexes ended the day lower.

Interestingly, the “Magnificent 7” tech giants bucked the trend, gaining 1% on the week—even as the other 493 S&P stocks lost about 1%. That divergence came despite a short squeeze lifting some of the most heavily bet-against names.

Bond yields climbed, but that didn’t stop Bitcoin from blasting through its range to hit a new all-time high above $118K, fueled by strong ETF inflows and rising liquidity—something I’ve been flagging for a while.

The dollar had its best week since February, though it’s still hovering near three-year lows. Gold stayed strong, rising for the third straight day, and logging two weeks of gains, supported by its 50-day moving average.

But the real stars of the commodity space were copper and silver. Copper surged to a record high after Trump’s earlier 50% tariff announcement, and silver jumped 3.8% today—breaking above $38 for the first time since 2011.

So, is this the breakout moment traders have been waiting for?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/10/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, July 10, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.83% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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