ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 8, 2025

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

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NASDAQ LEADS SYNCHRONIZED RALLY AS GOLD FUTURES HIT NEW HIGHS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks kicked off Friday in sync, with all the major indexes climbing together and eyeing another winning week—thanks, in large part, to the Nasdaq’s strong run.

Gold futures, already on a roll this week as traders bet on a possible Fed rate cut, blasted to record highs following a Financial Times report about a possible levy on imported gold bars.

That news also juiced gold mining stocks, sending the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) to a 52-week high, even as the spot price of gold barely budged during regular trading hours.

Overnight, President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs kicked in, with some of the steepest rates hitting countries like Syria (41%), Laos, and Myanmar (40%).

While the immediate impact of tariffs seems to be less turbulent, traders are still trying to figure out how ongoing trade policies could shake up corporate plans—and what it’ll mean for consumers down the line.

Meanwhile, Apple helped put some extra shine on the “Mag7” tech giants and semiconductor stocks this week since the administration exempted big names from new tariffs. The Mag7 basket surged over 5% for the week, outpacing the rest of the S&P 500 by a wide margin. The Nasdaq notched its best weekly performance since June.

Elsewhere, gold futures racked up gains in five of the past six sessions and hit fresh records, with the premium over spot prices also hitting an all-time high.

Bitcoin bounced back toward its own record highs but is still hemmed in on the charts. The dollar kept sinking even as bond yields pushed higher.

With tech leading the charge again, can this rally keep rolling, or will next week’s run of key economic reports—like CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales—throw a wrench into the works?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/07/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, August 7, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +3.52% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Markets Whipsaw: Big Tech Leads Early Gains, Gold And Bitcoin Rally Late

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets kicked off Thursday in rally mode, powered by tech stocks, after President Trump rolled out new chip tariffs that carve out big exemptions for companies building in the U.S.

Trump’s late-Wednesday announcement called for a 100% tariff on imported chips, but major players like Nvidia and AMD got a boost, since domestic investment gets a pass—Nvidia popped nearly 2%, AMD soared 5%, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 2%.

Apple joined the tech parade, adding 2% after announcing another $100 billion of spending on U.S. companies and suppliers, on top of its previous $500 billion pledge.

Despite “reciprocal” tariffs officially kicking in, investors seemed content early on, as fresh economic data (like lower-than-expected jobless claims) suggested the economy’s holding up just fine—even after last week’s disappointing July jobs numbers.

The good vibes didn’t last: Midday, the mood flipped, dragging the Dow and S&P 500 into the red by the close, while the Nasdaq bucked the trend and finished higher. Some traders chalked it up to classic “pumping and dumping,” with semiconductors and mega cap stocks both getting whipsawed.

Elsewhere, a rough 30-year Treasury auction sent bond yields higher, the dollar clawed its way back from yesterday’s lows, and gold hit a two-week high, offering relief for precious metal investors.

Bitcoin was also on the rebound, rallying above $117,000 amid word from the White House that 401ks and private investors will soon get easier access to crypto.

With today’s choppy action and headlines swirling, are the market’s building energy for a breakout, or are we stuck in this sideways grind a little longer?

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Stocks Rebound As Bitcoin Bounces And Dollar Drops Again

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 started the day on a high note, as traders sifted through a new round of earnings after Wall Street’s rough patch yesterday.

Apple was the big story, jumping 3% after news broke that it’s boosting its investment in U.S. manufacturing by another $100 billion, bringing its total stateside spending to a whopping $600 billion over the next four years.

There were other bright spots, too—McDonald’s rose 2% after serving up strong second-quarter numbers and notching its fastest same-store sales growth in nearly two years.

But it wasn’t all sunshine: Snap’s stock plummeted 20% after a minor revenue miss, and Advanced Micro Devices took a 5% hit after falling shy of earnings estimates.

By the closing bell, the Nasdaq came out on top, outperforming the other major indexes, while Small Caps ended in the red. That meant the Mag 7 stocks easily eclipsed the rest of the S&P 500 for today’s session.

The rest of the market was a bit of a mixed bag: bond yields went sideways, rate-cut odds edged higher for the rest of the year, and the dollar took another hit.

Gold couldn’t catch a break and slipped just a bit. Meanwhile, Bitcoin bounced nicely back above $115,000, clawing back more than it lost yesterday—while crude oil slid to a two-month low.

ZeroHedge pointed out that the Nasdaq 100’s performance this year is eerily like its 2020 run—so the big question is: Will history repeat itself with a sharp comeback, or are we headed for a different kind of finish this time?

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Gold Gains, Bitcoin Stumbles: Inflation And Tariffs Hit Sentiment

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks slipped across the board on Tuesday as traders reacted to some surprisingly weak economic data and fresh tariff talk from President Trump.

Earnings painted a mixed picture—Palantir jumped 8% after hitting a billion dollars in revenue for the first time, but Caterpillar stumbled on an earnings miss.

The big drag on the market came from the ISM Services index, which showed flat growth in July along with signs of higher inflation and shrinking employment. Since services make up about 70% of the U.S. economy, that hit a nerve—any slowdown here could spell trouble down the road.

Adding to the cautious mood, Trump announced upcoming tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals, saying he wants more of both made in the U.S., with specifics promised “within a week or so.”

That did nothing to calm investors, especially as tech stocks lagged and an early short squeeze fizzled out. Small Caps managed to end modestly in the green, but the Magnificent Seven led the market lower. Meanwhile, bond yields offered no help, finishing the day mixed.

With inflation jitters creeping in, gold ticked higher, the dollar didn’t budge much, and Bitcoin had a rough day before bouncing back to around $113,000.

ZeroHedge noted that Bitcoin’s run of outperforming gold seems to have stalled. Could it be time for precious metals to shine again?

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Gold, Stocks Bounce As Bears Take A Breather After Volatile Week

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets bounced back in style this morning, with all the major indexes recovering a big chunk of Friday’s losses that were sparked by worries about the economy and those new tariffs from the Trump administration.

After a rough end to last week—when weak jobs data, hot PCE inflation, and the final round of mixed earnings all weighed on investor mood—Monday brought a relief rally.

Friday’s slump started with a disappointing jobs report and heavy downward revisions for prior months. That was followed by President Trump firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and signing an executive order that pushed “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries up to 10–41%.

With little fresh economic news on the calendar this week, traders are keeping close tabs on trade negotiations with China following a meeting between US and Chinese officials in Sweden.

Seasonally, August tends to be rocky—historically the worst month for the Dow and the second worst for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—but some optimistic traders are hoping this time will buck the trend.

Heavy shorted stocks snapped back sharply today, rebounding right alongside the major indexes.

Lower bond yields helped keep the dollar in check, which gave gold more room to run—crossing above its 50-day moving average. After a choppy weekend, Bitcoin found its footing and bounced back toward $115,000.

So, with the calendar working against the bulls but today’s rally showing signs of life, will August stick to its usual script—or could this time really be different?

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