Big Banks Rally, Gold And Silver Hit Highs As Trade Tensions Persist

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The Dow pulled off an impressive comeback early on, shaking off a plunge of over 600 points as traders tried to see past the latest twists in U.S.-China trade tensions.

While tech stocks like Nvidia remained stuck in reverse, a strong kickoff to earnings season offered a reassuring sign that corporate fundamentals are still holding up.

Standout results from Citigroup and Wells Fargo propelled their stocks up 3.4% and 7%, while JPMorgan and Goldman also beat forecasts but still finished down on the day.

Markets opened lower after fresh moves from China to tighten its control on global shipping—and after Beijing slapped sanctions on five U.S. subsidiaries of Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, essentially freezing business ties.

That added fuel to an already volatile backdrop, especially after Trump last week threatened to double tariffs on China, moves that sent the Dow tumbling more than 800 points on Friday and the S&P 500 to its worst session since early April.

Trump tried to dial back the rhetoric over the weekend, posting “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine,” triggering Monday’s rally.

Today, however, that upbeat mood faded amid a new round of China headlines and Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks, which gave the market a brief lift before stocks closed mixed—only the Dow ending in the green.

Gold shot to another record before fading late, and silver had a volatile run, jumping above $53 then slipping.

Tech was the weakest link as “Mag 7” names lagged the S&P 500. Bond yields bounced around but ended a tad lower, with the 10-year briefly dipping to 4%. The dollar softened while bitcoin whipsawed but closed at $113,000, down for the day.

Uncertainty still rules the day: Will tech finally catch a break, or are markets in for more whiplash as the back-and-forth in trade talks drags on?

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Stocks Surge, Tech And Metals Lead The Charge

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks came roaring back Monday after President Trump toned down his tariff threats and struck a much calmer tone on China, saying trade relations “will all be fine”.

His comments helped reverse much of Friday’s steep selloff when fears of a renewed trade war wiped out roughly $2 trillion in market value.

Tech stocks were the day’s standouts—AMD, Nvidia, and Oracle each gained more than 3%, while Broadcom jumped over 7% after officially announcing a new partnership with OpenAI.

The reassuring tone from Trump’s Sunday post suggested he may not follow through with the 100% tariff threat that had markets rattled, easing investor jitters ahead of his potential meeting with President Xi later this month in South Korea.

Nearly 80% of S&P 500 stocks traded higher, sparking a broad rebound across sectors. Small caps roared back too, with the Russell 2000 surging over 3% after last week’s bruising decline, helped along by what traders called a massive short squeeze.

Precious metals once again stole the show—silver soared more than 4% to break $52, and gold surged past $4,100 for the first time ever.

Bitcoin also bounced, rising back toward $115,000, while the dollar edged up slightly.

With Washington’s tone shifting from confrontation to calm, will this newfound optimism last—or is it just another temporary ceasefire in the trade drama?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 10/10/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (290 vs. 266 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For October 10, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

RARE EARTH FIGHT SENDS MARKETS TUMBLING, GOLD AND SILVER RALLY

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks started off on the right foot today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq building on the week’s gains—the Nasdaq even notched a new all-time intraday high.

But the mood changed in a hurry after President Trump threatened hefty new tariffs on China, accusing them of being “very hostile” with their rare earth metals restrictions—a major shot across the bow for tech and defense companies.

The drop picked up steam all the way into the close, especially after Trump announced he was scrapping a planned meeting with President Xi and floated a “massive” tariff bump as payback for what he described as China holding the globe “captive” with rare earth controls.

China had already tightened those controls this week, requiring foreign buyers to get a special license from Beijing for products containing as little as 0.1% rare earths. Suddenly, any hope for a near-term China trade deal vanished in record time.

Almost lost in the shuffle, the government shutdown dragged on for a tenth day after the Senate failed—again—to break its deadlock. No real progress on talks, and the lack of fresh economic data isn’t helping traders find direction. At least the University of Michigan’s latest read on the economy and consumer was upbeat.

Today, the “Mag 7” and the rest of the S&P 500 dropped in sync, all ending the week with sharp losses and posting the first 1%+ drop in 48 trading days.

Bond yields softened, with the 30-year Treasury at a three-week low, but there was a silver lining: gold rallied for an eighth straight week, closing above $4,000, and silver followed with its own winning streak thanks to tight European physical markets.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, didn’t act as a haven and slipped for the week.

With global trade nerves this raw, is this just the start of more volatility, or will the market find its footing soon?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/09/2025

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, October 9, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +6.52% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Gold And Silver Lose Record Gains Amid Dollar Rally

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets got off to a hot start, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting fresh all-time intraday highs early on, but things fizzled as the session wore on and all three major indexes slipped into the red by the close—though some late dip buying helped trim those midday losses.

On the bright side, Costco’s stock popped 2% after it delivered another round of strong September sales, and Delta Air Lines soared 6% on upbeat earnings and an improved outlook.

Despite yesterday’s eight-out-of-nine winning streak for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq’s historic jump over 23,000, today was a different story.

With no big economic reports thanks to the government shutdown, all eyes were on the Fed, as traders listened in on Chair Powell and other officials for hints about the next move following Wednesday’s split Fed minutes.

Nearly everything moved lower, except the dollar—which rallied to a two-month high and dragged down gold and silver, both of which lost their grip on record territory after early surges.

Even the “Mag 7” tech giants only managed to claw back to unchanged after a rough patch.

Bitcoin wandered lower while bond yields ticked up. Are today’s broad losses just a bump in the road, or is more volatility about to hit?

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