1. Moving the market

The market spent most of the morning just shuffling around the flat line as everyone waited for the Fed, but things changed quickly once the decision hit.

By the close, stocks were solidly higher, with gains broadening out across almost every corner of the market.

The Fed did exactly what traders were hoping for, cutting rates by another 0.25%—its third straight reduction—and Chair Powell avoided saying anything that might kill the mood.

While there was some pushback inside the committee, his tone stayed comfortably dovish, which was all the market needed to hear.

After treading water early on, the major indexes flipped into rally mode, helped along by a late-day short squeeze that lifted nearly every sector into the green.

Bond yields slipped, and the “risk-on plus hedges” trade showed up in full force: Bitcoin jumped back above $94,000, gold pushed through $4,250, and silver briefly ripped above $62 before easing just under that mark into the close.

As expected, the dollar weakened and ended the day right back where it was at the time of the prior FOMC meeting, underscoring how much the focus has shifted toward easier policy and looser financial conditions.

With the long-anticipated rate cut now delivered and the Fed sounding more helpful than harmful, the big question is whether this sets the stage for the classic Santa Claus rally—or if lingering growth and inflation worries will cap the upside into year-end.

1. Moving the market

The major indexes didn’t go far today, drifting around the flat line as Wall Street shifted into full wait-and-see mode ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision.

With this being the last policy meeting of the year, traders were more interested in what’s coming than in making big moves intraday.

Right now, markets are heavily leaning toward another quarter‑point rate cut, matching what the Fed delivered in September and October, with odds up to roughly the high‑80% range versus the mid‑60s about a month ago.

A cut may feel almost baked in, but the real market driver will be the updated economic projections and what Chair Powell says about growth, inflation, and how much easing is left in the tank.

Given the recent pullback in stocks and crypto, risk‑on traders are clearly hoping the Fed will grease the skids for a year‑end rally instead of cooling the tape with cautious talk.

At the same time, policymakers are juggling sticky inflation, murky macro signals, missing or delayed data from the long government shutdown, and the broader uncertainty around Fed leadership as 2026 approaches.

By the close, the major indexes mostly churned sideways, with only the Nasdaq managing a small gain. Economic reports were a mixed bag, even as the Citi Economic Surprise Index ticked higher, hinting that data has lately been coming in a bit better than forecasts.

Under the surface, bond yields pushed higher again, but the real fireworks were in precious metals and Bitcoin.

Bitcoin ripped back toward four‑week highs near 94k, gold added modestly while holding comfortably above 4,200, and silver stole the spotlight with a 4.7% jump to break through the 60 level for the first time ever—a fresh record and another sign of how aggressively money has been rotating into metals.

With so many cross‑currents—from inflation and growth worries to delayed data, leadership questions, and a market still leaning heavily on the promise of easier policy—the big question now is whether the Fed can deliver a dovish-enough message to keep this fragile risk‑on tone alive into 2026, or whether its dual mandate will force a more cautious stance that reins in the doves.

1. Moving the market

We started with a little sparkle in the Nasdaq, but the Dow and S&P never really got off the ground.

Then the whole mood flipped—tech gave back its early pop, yields in the U.S. and Japan shot higher (10-year hit its highest level since early September), and everything slid into the red by the close.

A couple bright spots: Broadcom jumped 2% to a fresh record after word that Microsoft is talking custom chips with them, and Confluent absolutely rocketed 28% on news IBM is buying it for $11 billion (deal closes mid-2026).

Last week was solid—second green week in a row, S&P and Nasdaq had four-day streaks, Dow positive three of the last four—but Friday’s soft PCE print is looking like old news now.

Crypto got dragged lower with stocks, though Bitcoin squeaked out a tiny green close. Gold gave up some ground but clung to $4,200 like a champ.

Bottom line: the “rate-cut relief rally” we were counting on for Wednesday is starting to feel a little wobbly with yields spiking again.

As yields are suddenly flexing and the easy money trade looking shaky, we’re still riding into the Fed meeting full steam.