1. Moving the market

The push to extend yesterday’s rally sputtered out pretty quickly today. After some early enthusiasm, the major indexes slipped back and mostly hovered near unchanged before managing to eke out modest gains by the closing bell.

The big news from the Labor Department was a huge revision to last year’s job growth—turns out they overestimated by 911,000 jobs.

Since the report covers data from six months back, most traders shrugged it off for now, but it definitely plays into the broader narrative: expectations for Fed rate cuts this year keep getting stronger, and many seem to be rooting for a bigger move when the Fed meets next week.

It’s clear the jobs picture keeps softening, which could grease the wheels for rate cuts—but it also raises real questions about whether stocks have come too far, too fast.

The next wild card will be this week’s pair of inflation reports. If the numbers come in hot, the familiar threat of “stagflation” comes right back into focus, possibly forcing the Fed’s hand in the opposite direction.

Mag 7 stocks outperformed again, with Apple as a laggard. Bond yields pushed higher on inflation jitters, sending gold to a sharp intraday high before it reversed course in the afternoon.

Bitcoin saw a classic “pump and dump,” undoing its early gains as the dollar gained steam and finished higher.

So, with all eyes now on the inflation data, the big question is: will we see another leg up for equities, or does the slowdown in jobs and sticky inflation finally bring this rally to a halt?

1. Moving the market

The Nasdaq popped to a new record this morning, while the S&P 500 held mostly flat as Wall Street geared up for a week packed with crucial inflation numbers.

Nvidia bounced nearly 2% and Meta added over 1%, joining gains from other big tech names like Amazon and Microsoft, which helped the “Magnificent Seven” keep some heat under the market.

Traders are fixated on the upcoming Producer Price Index on Wednesday and Consumer Price Index on Thursday—two reports that could set the tone for what’s next with the Fed.

The weak jobs print from Friday has traders betting the Fed will finally go ahead with a rate cut at its September meeting, with chatter about the chance for a half-point move growing a bit louder.

Gold’s bull run hasn’t missed a beat, conquering $3,600 for a fresh record, while the dollar softened, and bitcoin raced back up toward Friday’s highs as bond yields drifted lower.

The way I see it, this “bad news is good news” vibe has powered rate cut hopes, but it all hinges on how these inflation reads come in.

Odds are now around 15% that we get a 0.5% cut from the Fed. But the question on my mind is: If the Fed finally delivers that cut, will equities rally—or will we get another bout of “buy the rumor, sell the fact”?

1. Moving the market

Wall Street got a confidence boost today, thanks to softer private payroll numbers that put a Fed rate cut squarely back on the table.

The S&P 500 hit another record close, Small Caps outperformed, and the Nasdaq joined the ride higher, even as the Dow lagged. I think traders saw the ADP miss—not terrible, but not strong—as a “just right” signal: weak enough to keep the Fed dovish, but not so bad as to spook anyone about a recession.

The way I see it, there’s a Goldilocks vibe in the air. With jobless claims up a bit and the odds of a September rate cut now near 98%, market focus has already shifted to Friday’s big jobs report.

On the Washington front, tariff headlines are swirling again as President Trump asked the Supreme Court to reverse lower court rulings against his tariffs, adding a touch more uncertainty to the mix.

Bond yields eased back as a result, and the dollar bounced after yesterday’s slide.

Surprisingly, gold took a breather—ending a winning streak and closing in the red for the first time in eight sessions—while bitcoin dropped but managed to find some buyers around the $110k mark.

As for the Mag 7 stocks, they mostly rode the bullish wave, helping lift the overall tech sector even as the rest of the market looked for direction.

I believe the key now is whether tomorrow’s jobs data can keep this “good news is good, but not too good” recipe intact.

Will a Goldilocks jobs number keep risk assets rolling, or are we setting up for some fresh volatility?