No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 9/20/2007

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My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

Thanks to Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates by 1/2%, the markets staged one of the best rallies in quite some time.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs jumped to +5.03% above its long-term trend line (red) as the chart below shows:



The international index also moved sharply higher to +2.73% above its own trend line, keeping us safely on the buy side.



For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

ETFs For Changing Times

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With the recent announcement of unexpected job losses during August, and now the lowering of interest rates, the question about a slowing economy in 2008 has been moved again to the front pages. At this time this is only speculation, however, you may be interested in knowing which investment orientations might have the best potential during times of a slowdown.

Obviously, interest rate sensitive instruments have always worked well, but what else? In my view, it’s way too early to tell specifics; however, as a regular reader of my weekly StatSheet, you will know first as to when new opportunities develop.

As the economy works itself through this cycle and into a different one, you will notice how the M-Index rankings of my listed no load funds and ETFs are changing. While it is possible that we may very well have sell signals in domestic and international funds, the wide variety of sectors will offer investment opportunities for a different economic environment.

As I mentioned before, the glut of ETFs and their ongoing dissection into many sectors will eventually be a benefit to all of us, since there will always be areas in demand even in a slumping economy. My data base currently contains over 1,700 no load funds and ETFs, with more being added.

As time goes on, follow the changes in the rankings, which will give you a clue as to which investment orientations are on the way up and which ones are on the way down.

Retirement Investing: Should You Pay Off Your Mortgage?

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It’s been an age old question. You’re facing retirement and are trying to decide whether it is wise to pay off your home mortgage or not. Maybe you have a bias because you witnessed your parents’ mortgage burning ceremony and are wondering if that still makes sense nowadays.

As a general rule, I believe that living a retired life without a mortgage is a worthwhile goal; however, there is no one fits all solution as circumstances vary widely for each individual. Forbes had an article called “Burdening Your Retirement with a Mortgage,” which outlines many of the pros and cons. Some of them might give you the answer you’ve been looking for or at least make you look at your own situation from a different angle to clarify your thinking.

Special No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Update For 9/18/2007

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Wall Street got its version of an early Christmas present by finally getting a long wished for rate cut by the Fed. Not only that, the cut was wide and deep, encompassing the Fed Funds rate and the Discount rate at a hoped for ½ point rather than the acceptable ¼ point.

As the chart above shows, the reaction was fast and furious with all major indexes scoring solidly.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) rallied as well and moved above their respective trend lines as follows:

Domestic TTI: +5.38%
International TTI: +2.17%

It will be interesting to see if this move to the upside will be supported in the coming days (and weeks) by more buying which is necessary to support this breakout from the current sideways pattern.

We are holding all current positions subject to our sell stop rules and are adding where appropriate.

Income Investing: First Muni Bond ETF Debuts

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On September 10, Barclays Global Investors debuted the first ETF to track the U.S. municipal bond market, which will provide investors a different way to invest in municipal issues as reported by Bloomberg.

My preference for investors with after-tax money wishing to generate income has always been the use of closed end muni funds, the benefits which have been detailed in my free e-book. This will offer investors another opportunity, and I will track pricing and yield of the new iShares S&P; National Municipal Bond Fund (MUB) to see how it compares to old fashioned muni CEFs.

One obvious advantage is the instant diversification this $294 million ETF would provide. Income is distributed monthly and throughout the day pricing provides more transparency than individual bonds. The expense ratio is pegged to be $25 for every $10,000 of assets.

Not to be outdone, State Street announced a similar offering to be available around September 13. Another player in that field is the SPDR Lehman Municial Bond ETF, with the ticker symbol TFI which will track the three-year old Lehman Brothers Municipal Managed Money Index.

With other offerings in the pipeline, it is the individual investor who will benefit by having more and better choices, which is a development I applaud.

Sunday Musings: Getting The Upper Hand

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

The problems and tremendous cash needs of Countrywide (as a stockholder you might prefer the name “Countryslide”) made me reflect on my recent dealings with them and how a company that size could get themselves in such a predicament.

The $2 billion cash infusion by Bank of America seems to be gone and it appears that Countrywide is on the prowl for more money. Who knows what the story may be tomorrow.

As a borrower, I had a disagreement with Countrywide regarding my own mortgage. I will spare you the details, but suffice it to say that company computer generated letters generally do no solve issues. Neither do phone calls to known numbers of their alleged service department. Faxes to widely advertised numbers disappear in the digital waste basket.

If you ever had difficulties with your mortgage company, or are trying to resolve an issue, you may want to follow the route that I have taken over the past 30 years, which has never failed to get results. While I did not always get 100% satisfaction, I have come close in most cases.

I have found that it’s a useless and frustrating exercise to get anything accomplished via a company’s regular service department. There is no need to even bother since it appears to me that they employ and train people in problem avoidance, and I suspect that they pay bonuses to those reps who can get rid of a calling customer the fastest.

Here’s what I do: I find out who the President or CEO of the company is, and the location he works from. In the case of Countrywide it was easy since, as a public company, this information is readily available.

Without anger, I write a letter describing the problem and my attempts to solve it. I ask for his assistance in getting this issue resolved. I mail that to him as a certified letter (personal and confidential) with return receipt. Once I’ve done that, I sit back and watch what happens.

My theory is that the guy at the top did not there (in most cases) because he is incompetent. He got there because of his abilities, but he’s handicapped because he can’t instill his beliefs and desires to run a great company in the hundreds or thousands of people working for him.

When he gets a polite but firm customer letter requesting his help, he will not be a happy camper and immediate action will be the result. That usually takes the form of a high level assistant or other competent person contacting you by phone trying to resolve the issue on his behalf, which will happen with amazing speed and accuracy.

In my dealings with Countrywide, I sent 4 certified letters (couldn’t decide which one of the top dogs to contact first) and, within a few days, I was not only in direct contact with the personal assistant to the President, but also in possession of his personal phone and fax number.

Essentially, this is a game you have to play nowadays when dealing with any large company. Don’t get mad and frustrated; just get even by knowing you can come out on top by working the corporate food chain from the right angle.