Another good start to a new week had all of the major indexes moving higher. Below please find the link to the most recent ETF Master list, which has been updated with yesterday’s closing prices. This will enable you to work with more recent data. You can download the file at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/ETFMaster100907.pdf

At this point, our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) remain solidly in bullish territory with the domestic and international one sitting comfortably above their long term trend lines by +6.84% and +5.78% respectively.

If your personal preference is to use environmentally friendly ETFs whenever possible, there are a number of them which might be of interest to you. Of course, just because an ETF is exposed to that area, does not mean it is an appropriate investment at this time.

ETF Trends had a listing of 9 ETFs that are involved in that sector, of which 7 are listed in my weekly StatSheet. If the clean-tech sector is an area you are looking to invest in, you may want to check out this list, which includes my Momentum (M-Index) numbers as of 10/8/07:

PBW (+16)
PZD (+14)
EVX (+12)
GRN (+6)
PUW (+5)
GEX (+8)
PBD (+16)

While we currently have no holdings in any of the above ETfs, this may change if they move up higher in the sector rankings.

Seeking Alpha recently featured an article called “Are You Missing the ETF Rally?” Some of the points are very interesting, confirming what I have been advocating for a long time that a disciplined investment method is of utmost importance for long-term success.

The featured computer model shows a listing of ETF sector rankings, somewhat similar to my StatSheet, although derived from a different approach. Some of the ETF rankings are close to my own, although I don’t know how complete their data base is. It does not really matter, what matters is that via a ranking system you can easily identify those ETFs which are showing leadership and, more importantly, those which are not.

Just as selecting the appropriate ETFs is paramount, staying away from those that are heading for the basement can be even more important for your portfolio’s health.

Much has been written about former Fed Chairman’s new book “The Age of Turbulence.” While I have not read it, Elliott Wave International had a few excerpts and quotes about it.

Apparently, Mr. Greenspan feels that the current housing bubble was something that could not have been forecasted specifically. This article then goes on to quote the various prior public media announcements that the Elliott Wave Forecast has made alerting to the potential real estate blow up.

It’s interesting to note that various writers and publications now are trying to take credit as to who made the first call in predicting the crisis. Again, the problem is in “predicting.” No one has the ability to look into the future; it is nothing but a wild guess. And yes, the handwriting was on the wall that real estate assets can’t simply go on inflating forever.

This graph shows the rising real estate housing prices over the past 20 years. The trend was clearly up and then reversed at the top. If you had the weekly data available, you could easily plot a long term moving average and see the point when it broke below the trend line; in the same fashion as we do with mutual funds and ETFs. However, the break to the downside, indicating a bear market, obviously occurred after the top had been formed.

While this would have indicated a trend reversal, it would not been of any value, since real estate is an illiquid asset, and this type of timing to sell would have been way late.

My view is that once a trend has been set in motion, as in the case of real estate, there is not much the Fed could have done to stop it short of draconic measures. One such measure would have been raising interest rates sharply which would have ended the real estate boom in a hurry.

However, the fallout effect on the economy as a whole would have been far reaching and extremely negative. This makes me believe that once any asset bubble has been formed there is no choice but to let it pop and live with the consequences.

Jeff Hirsch of Stock Trader’s Almanac had a commentary in MarketWatch titled “Bear killer meets Presidential bull.”

It highlights the historical ups and downs that October is known for. While many rallies have started during this month, some of the greatest crashes such as in 1929, 1987, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979 and on Friday the 13th back in 1989 occurred in October as well.

He has these interesting thoughts to offer:

October used to be a horrible month for stocks and from 1950-1997 held the record for most cumulative Dow Jones Industrials points lost. Since the beating the street took in 1997, it has since been the best month. All three major indexes have been up significantly with an average monthly gain of 3.1% for the Dow, 3.6% on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and a massive 5.1% for the Nasdaq Composite, which is why we advise that October is an especially good time to buy depressed high-tech stocks. The rising tide has indeed lifted all boats as only December and November are better for small-cap Russell 2000 stocks.

Although often brutish, it has become a turnaround month — a “bear killer” if you will. Eleven post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001 and 2002. Seven were midterm bottoms.

He recommends a list of ETFs that have seasonally done well during this upcoming quarter. Don’t take that as a sure thing. I checked my data base, and some of the recommendations are showing decent momentum numbers while others are still very weak.

As always, if you decide to enter any new position, you need to establish your exit strategy at the same time. If you don’t, you are not investing, you are merely gambling.

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

Positive employment figures provided the fuel to close out this week on a positive note.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs has moved to +6.39% above its long-term trend line (red) as the chart below shows:



The international index moved sharply higher to +5.32% above its own trend line, keeping us safely on the buy side.



For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.