Tracking The Hedge

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Many readers have sent in questions as to how I track the current hedged mutual fund positions I am holding. Since the funds are not a buy at this point, I have identified them as Fund A and B in the following graph:



(click to enlarge)

Fund A and B represent 10% each of total portfolio value. The Hedge was initiated on 6/12/08 and the beginning and ending values (7/25/08) are shown along with their gains and losses. Notice how Fund A disappointed most during this period with a loss of -10.39% while Fund B held up much better with a -5.05% loss.

This was offset by the short (SH) gain of +6.85%, while, for the same period, the S&P; 500 lost -6.14%.

At one point, this hedge was up +1.25%, but currently is down a meager -0.43%. The key here is to realize that, had you simply held on to your mutual fund positions and not sold or hedged, your losses would be worse than the S&P;’s.

My research has shown that hedges can work well by producing small but fairly consistent profits. In this particular case, that has not occurred yet, but the current loss is certainly manageable. As is the case with all investing, nothing works 100% all the time.

Sunday Musings: An Unsound Banking System

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It’s no secret that the credit/banking crisis has the potential of bringing down not just only small banks but some of the big boys as well. As I mentioned before, the FDIC has hired some retired bank specialists who were involved in the S&L; crisis back in the 80s. That appears to be some sort of confirmation that there is more fallout on the horizon.

The entire banking system is anything but stable at the moment as Mish over at Global Economic Trends analyzes in:

You Know The Banking System Is Unsound When

1. Paulson appears on Face The Nation and says “Our banking system is a safe and a sound one.” If the banking system was safe and sound, everyone would know it (or at least think it). There would be no need to say it.

2. Paulson says the list of troubled banks “is a very manageable situation”. The reality is there are 90 banks on the list of problem banks. Indymac was not one of them until a month before it collapsed. How many other banks will magically appear on the list a month before they collapse?

3. In a Northern Rock moment, depositors at Indymac pull out their cash. Police had to be called in to ensure order.

4. Washington Mutual (WM), another troubled bank, refused to honor Indymac cashier’s checks. The irony is it makes no sense for customers to pull insured deposits out of Indymac after it went into receivership. The second irony is the last place one would want to put those funds would be Washington Mutual. Eventually Washington Mutual decided it would take those checks but with an 8 week hold. Will Washington Mutual even be around 8 weeks from now?

5. Paulson asked for “Congressional authority to buy unlimited stakes in and lend to Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE)” just days after he said “Financial Institutions Must Be Allowed To Fail”. Obviously Paulson is reporting from the 5th dimension. In some alternate universe, his statements just might make sense.

6. Former Fed Governor William Poole says “Fannie Mae, Freddie Losses Makes Them Insolvent”.

7. Paulson says Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are “essential” because they represent the only “functioning” part of the home loan market. The firms own or guarantee about half of the $12 trillion in U.S. mortgages. Is it possible to have a sound banking system when the only “functioning” part of the mortgage market is insolvent?

8. Bernanke testified before Congress on monetary policy but did not comment on either money supply or interest rates. The word “money” did not appear at all in his testimony. The only time “interest rate” appeared in his testimony was in relation to consumer credit card rates. How can you have any reasonable economic policy when the Fed chairman is scared half to death to discuss interest rates and money supply?

9. The SEC issued a protective order to protect those most responsible for naked short selling. As long as the investment banks and brokers were making money engaging in naked shorting of stocks, there was no problem. However, when the bears began using the tactic against the big financials, it became time to selectively enforce the existing regulation.

10. The Fed takes emergency actions twice during options expirations week in regards to the discount window and rate cuts.

11. The SEC takes emergency action during options expirations week regarding short sales.

12. The Fed has implemented an alphabet soup of pawn shop lending facilities whereby the Fed accepts garbage as collateral in exchange for treasuries. Those new Fed lending facilities are called the Term Auction Facility (TAF), the Term Security Lending Facility (TSLF), and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF).

13. Citigroup (C), Lehman (LEH), Morgan Stanley(MS), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Merrill Lynch (MER) all have a huge percentage of level 3 assets. Level 3 assets are commonly known as “marked to fantasy” assets. In other words, the value of those assets is significantly if not ridiculously overvalued in comparison to what those assets would fetch on the open market. It is debatable if any of the above firms survive in their present form. Some may not survive in any form.

14. Bernanke openly solicits private equity firms to invest in banks. Is this even close to a remotely normal action for Fed chairman to take?

15. Bear Stearns was taken over by JPMorgan (JPM) days after insuring investors it had plenty of capital. Fears are high that Lehman will suffer the same fate. Worse yet, the Fed had to guarantee the shotgun marriage between Bear Stearns and JP Morgan by providing as much as $30 billion in capital. JPMorgan is responsible for only the first 1/2 billion. Taxpayers are on the hook for all the rest. Was this a legal action for the Fed to take? Does the Fed care?

16. Citigroup needed a cash injection from Abu Dhabi and a second one elsewhere. Then after announcing it would not need more capital is raising still more. The latest news is Citigroup will sell $500 billion in assets. To who? At what price?

17. Merrill Lynch raised $6.6 billion in capital from Kuwait Mizuho, announced it did not need to raise more capital, then raised more capital a few week later.

18. Morgan Stanley sold a 9.9% equity stake to China International Corp. CEO John Mack compensated by not taking his bonus. How generous. Morgan Stanley fell from $72 to $37. Did CEO John Mack deserve a paycheck at all?

19. Bank of America (BAC) agreed to take over Countywide Financial (CFC) and twice announced Countrywide will add profits to B of A. Inquiring minds were asking “How the hell can Countrywide add to Bank of America earnings?” Here’s how. Bank of America just announced it will not guarantee $38.1 billion in Countrywide debt. Questions over “Fraudulent Conveyance” are now surfacing.

20. Washington Mutual agreed to a death spiral cash infusion of $7 billion accepting an offer at $8.75 when the stock was over $13 at the time. Washington Mutual has since fallen in waterfall fashion from $40 and is now trading near $5.00 after a huge rally.

21. Shares of Ambac (ABK) fell from $90 to $2.50. Shares of MBIA (MBI) fell from $70 to $5. Sadly, the top three rating agencies kept their rating on the pair at AAA nearly all the way down. No one can believe anything the government sponsored rating agencies say.

22. In a panic set of moves, the Fed slashed interest rates from 5.25% to 2%. This was the fastest, steepest drop on record. Ironically, the Fed chairman spoke of inflation concerns the entire drop down. Bernanke clearly cannot tell the truth. He does not have to. Actions speak louder than words.

23. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said the FDIC is looking for ways to shore up its depleted deposit fund, including charging higher premiums on riskier brokered deposits.

24. There is roughly $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits. $2.60 Trillion of that is uninsured. There is only $53 billion in FDIC insurance to cover $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits. Indymac will eat up roughly $8 billion of that.

25. Of the $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits, the total cash on hand at banks is a mere $273.7 Billion. Where is the rest of the loot? The answer is in off balance sheet SIVs, imploding commercial real estate deals, Alt-A liar loans, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, toggle bonds where debt is amazingly paid back with more debt, and all sorts of other silly (and arguably fraudulent) financial wizardry schemes that have bank and brokerage firms leveraged at 30-1 or more. Those loans cannot be paid back.

It’s not my intention to dwell on negatives but to simply be realistic as to where we stand economically. It’s important that you are aware of the items Mish discussed, which essentially support my view that we are in a bear market and will be for some time. Don’t fall prey to any feel good rallies until the trend has reversed and clearly demonstrates that better times are ahead.

Do You Know These Numbers?

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

I have mentioned from time to time that many investors (or advisor clients for that matter) have very good intentions, but seem to fight a constant battle with their short-term fear pitted against their long-term resolve.

Many times, the former wins handily and the latter, which is more important, succumbs to the fear of being too worried about short-term losses. I suppose that any psychologist would confirm that fear is a far stronger emotion than great intentions.

Even if you could have omnipotent abilities to look into the future, your emotions most likely would not change. Let me prove that point.

Take a look at the following set of numbers:



Assume that, with your omnipotent abilities, you could be assured that two investment approaches (A and B) would be able to produce those annual returns over the next 5 years. Which one would you select?

If you’re like most investors, you would choose the one featured in column B. Why? It’s off to a great start, and your short-term fears about losing are alleviated.

However, if you knew your numbers you would have realized that this was a trick question. The figures are identical in both columns, only the sequence is different. After 5 years, the returns are exactly the same!

The point is that an investor with a long-term resolve in an investment approach would have done just as well with the figures in column A even though the first two years might have had him question the soundness of his selection.

The key to using any investment approach is twofold. Don’t let emotions get in the way of sound thinking and find one that you are comfortable with so that you can stick with it for the long term.

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 7/24/2008

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

Big swings in the marketplace left the major indexes with little to show for.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs remains below its trend line (red) by -3.40% thereby confirming the current bear market trend.



The international index now remains -8.84% below its own trend line, keeping us on the sidelines.



For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

Back To Even

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Despite last week’s bounce in the market, we really have gone nowhere. The S&P; 500 started the month at 1,280 and closed at that number yesterday. Despite some sharp drops during the first couple of weeks in July, it’s questionable whether the subsequent rebound rally has legs, as economic circumstances have not changed.

Sure, lower crude oil prices helped matters, but who knows what’s around the corner. Financial institutions are still settled with bad debt and, until all skeletons have come out of the closet, there is no way to assess the total damage.

With the major trend having gone nowhere, here’s how our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) currently stand:

Domestic TTI: -3.20%
International TTI: -7.56%

There are no changes to our investment positions and cash or hedged positions remain to be king.

Fixing Fannie And Freddie

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Most likely, you’ve been reading the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debacle, and the various plans for a bail out, along with banning naked short selling. Bill Fleckenstein had an interesting piece on the subject called “Feds can’t fix Fannie and Freddie.” Here are some highlights:

Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs) and Freddie Mac (FRE, news, msgs) do not have a liquidity problem that can be solved by the Federal Reserve or even by an injection of Treasury capital. It’s a solvency issue. Short-term cash isn’t the real problem. Over time, the mortgage giants’ liabilities are quite likely to swamp their assets. Thus their assets are contingent, but their debts are forever.

Further, if the Treasury is the only entity left willing to buy shares to shore up Fannie and Freddie, what will happen to other troubled financial institutions? Between now and the year’s end, more mortgages will percolate through those institutions’ balance sheets, creating losses that will force them to seek capital as well.

Turning to wrongheaded finger-pointing, I found it interesting that Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Chris Cox wants to amend rules for naked short selling (though his proposals are much ado about nothing, as it is already illegal), specifically in the cases of Fannie, Freddie and certain brokers. I know I’ve said this before, but since there’s been so much chatter about short sellers, let me once again try to make this perfectly clear:

Short sellers didn’t create the housing bubble, which is what caused the unfolding disaster. Nor did they make the bad loans now going sour. Short sellers do not ruin companies, and they are incapable of driving a company’s stock price lower for more than a brief moment. If unscrupulous manipulators decided to pressure a stock lower, that would be a recipe for losing money unless they were extremely quick, not only to sell but also to cover the short position.

Likewise, short sellers didn’t cause Bear Stearns to collapse. That was a do-it-yourself job, executed by the arrogant chieftains who let themselves get wildly over-leveraged.

And someone might tell Cox that short sellers didn’t ruin Fannie Mae. That was the handiwork of former CEO Franklin Raines and the rest of management (as well as the regulators), whose Enron-like greed caused me to name the company “Fanron” on Feb. 23, 2005. As I wrote in my daily column on my Web site that day:

“Problems there definitely matter, since Fannie has been one of the primary engines that finance the housing ATM. In yet another turn for the worse, OFHEO stated that it has ‘identified (additional) policies that it believes appear inconsistent with generally accepted accounting principles.’ When I read this morning’s OFHEO headlines (concerning Fannie’s ‘held for sale’ loans and ‘use of FAS 140’ hedge accounting), I thought this smells, just like Enron, ergo, my new nickname for Fannie — Fanron.”

This business of blaming short sellers for lower stock prices (and speculators generically for high oil prices) is getting ridiculous, especially when the real perpetrators suffer minor consequences as they walk away with giant piles of money.

Bill hits the nail on the head with his analysis. Only time will tell if any of these attempts of rescuing insolvent institutions will fail or succeed. My guess is that they will fail, and the tax payer will ultimately be the only one left to pick up the tab in one form or another. Déjà vu!