No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 10/04/2007

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

Positive employment figures provided the fuel to close out this week on a positive note.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs has moved to +6.39% above its long-term trend line (red) as the chart below shows:



The international index moved sharply higher to +5.32% above its own trend line, keeping us safely on the buy side.



For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

ETF Investing: Resisting Sell Offs

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Whenever markets pull back, as they did yesterday, I look at my data base to see which no load funds/ETFs go against the grain by staying even or actually going up.

In the name of diversification, I always like to own positions that are following an uptrend strongly, yet have the ability to resist sell offs. Sure, it’s what every investor is looking for. It worked for us yesterday, as most of the super stars of the recent past gave back some gains, but our position in XBI (Healthcare) actually gained a strong 1.73%.

I have noticed a reoccurrence of this over past few months, as the S&P; 500 pulled back, XBI advanced. Take a look at the chart:




Just about after the August sell off, a “disconnect” between the S&P; 500 and XBI occurred, which was just about the time we entered this position. While no one knows if this will continue, it has worked well for my clients’ holdings over the past couple of months.

This is not a recommendation for you to follow suit and jump in, but merely a suggestion for you to do your own research to see if this ETF makes sense to you.

ETF Master List – Mid-Week Update As Of 10/2/2007

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

With Monday’s great up move to start the final quarter of 2007, I have updated the ETF Master list with yesterday’s closing prices to give you more recent data to work with. You can download the file at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/ETFMaster100207.pdf

Despite the modest pullback yesterday, the uptrend remains intact with our domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) now having advanced to +6.46% above its long-term trend line while the international TTI jumped to +5.10%.

The Mutual Fund Rating Game: Morningstar’s Stewardship

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Morningstar re-launched its Stewardship Grades for Mutual Funds a few days ago designed to reward the industry’s best stewardship practices. So far, it has shown Clipper funds (CFIMX) to be a standard bearer for corporate governance.

OK, I am all for improvements in this area, but I don’t select a fund just based on these new criteria. Take a look at CFIMX, which has net assets of over $3 billion. Year-to-date (as of 8/31/07) it has a negative return of -1.09% according to Yahoo Finance.

Hmm, let’s assume for a moment that the average investor has $50k invested in this fund. That means, with over $3 billion in assets, there are about 60,000 investors who are exposed to a fund with A1 corporate ethics, whose portfolios have gone down in value.

Comparing this fund with the S&P; 500, and one of our current holdings, WLGYX, and you can clearly see that this is, to say it politely, not a fund you want to own. Take a look at the chart:




To be clear, out of 117 Large Blend funds in my data base, this one ranks in the bottom 5. The top ones show a YTD return of around +19%.

My point is simply that it is noble to support causes you believe in. However, it is important to distinguish between being engaged in worthwhile endeavors and making decisions which may jeopardize your portfolio growth along with your future retirement.

Quantitative Investment Strategies: How To Lose 30% In A Week

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Motley Fool featured an article titled “Beat the Eggheads at Goldman Sachs,” which shed some light on how the quantitative approach to investing works. It’s entertaining reading especially once you realize that top pros in the business were getting slaughtered in August.

Yes, August was a difficult month with the markets pulling back, but the main reason things went so bad for the quant folks is the use of extreme leverage to enhance returns/losses. Sure, you may have used enhanced ETFs (up to 200%) yourself, but I am willing to bet that you only had a portion of your portfolio exposed and that you watched your position very carefully by having an exit point in place.

As the article states, some of the “quants” used 6 times leverage on 100% of the portfolio, apparently with no stop losses, so even small market fluctuations had a huge impact on gains and losses alike. If you want to find out how not to invest, this article is for you.

Sunday Musings: The Traveling Investment Advisor

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

With my upcoming annual trip to Germany (Oct. 7 – Oct. 21), some readers have asked how I manage my business affairs when abroad. Thanks to the advances in technology and communications, especially over the past 7 years or so, I am able to conduct business from any location as long as I have internet access.

My first step to freeing myself from being tied down to one office and becoming mobile was the addition of a high speed duplex scanner, which I invested in a few years ago. As a result, my office became 100% paperless, which allowed me to travel and have instant access to any and all client documents and files.

My laptop computer represents an exact duplicate of my desk top, so that placing buy/sell trades and producing the weekly StatSheet can be done effectively even from a dial-up connection. New account applications arriving at my office during my absence are being faxed to me for review.

With the 9-hour time difference, my responses to e-mails will be a little slower and a day late as will be the posts to my blog. During that 2-week period, I discourage phone calls and prefer e-mail communications.

Having done this trip for over 30 years, my biggest fear recently has always been a potential failure of my laptop. I have addressed that problem by signing up with gotomypc, which allows me to access and work on my office computer from any PC anywhere.

In a way, planning for my yearly trip is not unlike investing. You figure out what your goals are, select your investments and provide for contingencies in case the market goes against you.

The picture above shows some of the special plugs, converters and cables that will be my companion so that I can function in a world of different electrical standards.