Sunday Musings: Clipping your Dividends

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Hat tip goes to reader Delo for pointing to Forbes’ article “They’re Clipping Your Dividends.” Let’s look at some highlights:

If you are a prosperous saver, the federal tax rate on your dividends is about to triple. What are you going to do about it?

You didn’t know about this tripling? Pay attention. There has been a great transformation in fiscal policy. Congress has decided to bail out deadbeats and condo flippers, and to finance this generosity by taxing marriage, work and savings. Ashlea Ebeling describes the first two assaults in The Obama Tax Hikes–What to Do. Let’s now consider savings–specifically, four ways in which dividend earners will be punished.

Come next January the favorable 15% rate on dividends will expire, making them subject to taxation as “ordinary income.” At the same time the maximum rate is kicking up from 35% to 39.6%. The third thing that will happen in 2011 is the resurrection of a rule that ostensibly limits deductions but for the majority of taxpayers is nothing but a boost in their tax bracket. This rule adds 1.2 percentage points to your rate.

In 2013 comes a fourth tax increase: a 3.8% surtax on investment income. Add it up. Dividends that used to be taxed at 15% are set to be taxed at 44.6%.

What are you going to do? Here are two tips, both from Robert Gordon of Twenty-First Securities Corp. He spends his days devising tax-efficient trading strategies for wealthy people, but some of his ideas are applicable to folks of modest means, which we will define as $1 million in the market.

The first is to sell all your preferreds, utilities and other high-yielding stocks. Sell even the ones in your tax-sheltered accounts. When the reality of higher taxes sinks in, these stocks will come under selling pressure.

The second thing to do is to get back into these stocks after the selling wave is over, but do it using a derivative that allows you to duck the tax. That derivative is a single-stock future. You contract now to buy a share that will be delivered to you some months hence.

While I appreciate the 2 solutions to the problem, I can’t see a not very sophisticated retired person getting involved with single-stock futures.

The other area that was not discussed was the fact that many dividend investors are not earning enough to push them in a high tax bracket, so the actual effect might not be as bad.

Nevertheless, tax increases are on the horizon, and I suggest that, if you are concerned, you meet with a competent tax advisor to discuss your personal situation. Many details are still not known so you may want to tackle this task later on this year.

(Almost) Everything You wanted To Know About Sell Stops…But Where Afraid To Ask

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

One of the most frequently asked questions about trend tracking has to do with the implementation of trailing sell stops. How and when to use them along with tracking caused many readers to write emails and comments, many of which I used as new blog posts.

While you can hunt and peck through the blog archives for specifics, I thought it would be easier to compile all sell stop topics into one e-book and make it available to anyone. Thanks to my assistant, Lovel Evans, for doing the grunt work, this project has been completed and encompasses some 70 pages.

You can now download for free “(Almost) Everything You wanted To Know About Sell Stops…But Where Afraid To Ask.”

Feel free to pass it on to anyone who may have a use for it. Keep in mind that there is some redundancy, but I felt that relevant reader comments should be part of it even though they may have been discussed already.

The format is in reverse chronological order just like the blog posts. As time goes on, I may add new posts on the topic provided they have not been covered. I hope this helps you with your investment decisions when it comes to the use of trailing sell stops.

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 4/8/2010

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

The major indexes gained again on hopes of a continued recovery.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs has now crossed its trend line (red) to the upside by +4.67% keeping the current buy signal intact. The effective date was June 3, 2009.



The international index has now broken above its long-term trend line by +7.41%. A Buy signal was triggered effective May 11, 2009. We are holding our positions subject to a trailing stop loss.



[Click on charts to enlarge]

For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

ETFs With Religion

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Let’s listen in to “ETFs Reveal The One True Religion:”

In recent years, ETFs have been the ultimate growth industry. In 2009 more than 120 new products hit the market, and the first quarter of 2010 saw nearly 60 new launches. While some of these new products are “plain vanilla” funds competing directly with existing ETFs, the bulk of expansion in the space has been attributable to innovation, not duplication. The universe of accessible asset classes has been expanding while the granularity of exposure available has also surged.
…

Another interesting innovation in the ETF industry is the development of faith-based funds. A handful of these ETFs have popped up over the last year, each seeking to replicate the performance of an index constructed in accordance with guidelines and principles of various religious groups.

The concept of faith-based funds is commonly misunderstood by ETF investors. An affiliation with a religious entity isn’t a requirement for inclusion in the underlying indexes; rather dealing in certain areas may be grounds for exclusion. In general, faith-based ETFs exclude stocks of companies engaging in activities that conflict with religious tenets. So you’re unlikely to find any stocks linked to gaming, tobacco, alcohol, or pornography in any of these funds. Certain pharmaceutical companies are also on the “do not invest” list because of their involvement in contraceptive drugs and stem cell research.
…

Currently, the universe of faith-based ETFs includes six funds:

* FaithShares Baptist Values Fund ETF (FZB): This ETF tracks the performance of the FaithShares Baptist Values Index, a benchmark with a “zero tolerance policy” for companies involved in gambling, tobacco, alcohol, pornography, and abortion.
* FaithShares Catholic Values Fund ETF (FCV): This fund tracks the FaithShares Catholic Values Index, a benchmark that screens companies in accordance with the Catholic Bishops’ Socially Responsible Investment Guidelines. Companies are evaluated on their Catholic Values, which include respecting human life, reducing arms production, and protecting the environment.
* FaithShares Christian Values Fund ETF (FOC): This ETF is linked to the FaithShares Christian Values Index, a custom benchmark that measures the performance of large cap stocks screened based on a composite of guidelines of various Christian denominations.
* FaithShares Lutheran Values Fund ETF (FKL): This ETF tracks the FaithShares Lutheran Values Index, which avoids companies involved in harmful products and services, nuclear military weaponry, and hazardous environmental impact.
* FaithShares Methodist Values Fund ETF (FMV): This ETF tracks the FaithShares Methodist Values Index, a benchmark constructed in accordance with the investment philosophy of the Methodist Church.
* Dow Jones Islamic Market International Index Fund (JVS): This ETF tracks the Dow Jones Islamic Market International Titans 100 Index, which is maintained in accordance with principles of Islamic law. A supervisory board made up of internationally recognized Shari’ah scholars reviews the fund’s investment decisions, which generally avoid alcohol, conventional financial services, pork related products, and firearms.

Most of these funds don’t have a very long operating history–JVS was launched in June 2009 and the rest of the funds in December. So far, they’ve been relatively slow to gather assets, perhaps in part because of the lofty expense ratios compared to other options for large cap U.S. and international exposure.
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These faith-based funds may have outperformed the broad market, but they lagged behind some investment products at the opposite end of the morality spectrum. The Vice Fund (VICEX), a mutual fund that targets stocks of tobacco, alcohol, gaming, and weapons/defense companies, added about 6.3% in the first quarter, putting it ahead of all the faith-based mutual funds. And the vice-centric Gaming ETF (BJK), which invests in stocks of companies engaged in the global gaming industry, has also raced ahead to start 2010. BJK gained 10.4% in the first quarter, as the outlook for one of the ultimate consumer discretionary products brightened considerably.

While the recent performance of these ETFs has been better than the S&P; 500, they are not yet investment material.

These funds are still in an embryonic stage with average net assets of around $2.5 million and very light volumes, which makes them suitable for only the smallest investor.

The reason for bringing it up is that several readers have asked me about them. If this investment arena is of interest to you, you now know they exist and can follow them until they grow in size and volume to a point where they can become a worthwhile alternative.

Disclosure: No holdings at this time

One Reader’s Viewpoint

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

In regards to Sunday’s post titled “Opposing Viewpoint,” reader Tad had the following comments:

In regards to your Sunday post, I think PTTDX, or better yet HABDX, would be excellent choices when you issue sell signals for equities, especially for those who will not be aggressive enough to short, when and if that becomes the trend.

This gives you the best of both worlds, equities when they are trending up, and the stability of bonds when the trend is questionable or is going down for equities.

Having said that, Bill Gross, “The Bond King”, and in my opinion, one very smart man, has stated to sell bonds in what is surly going to eventually be a rising rate environment at some point, and at that point the demise of bonds to a lesser or greater extent depending on the duration.

In a rising rate environment, where the money supply is expanding rapidly, equities would seem to be the place to be, following the trend, of course. And equities in places where sovereign debt is not an issue, state debt is not an issue, county debt is not an issue and last but not least private debt is not an issue.

In other words, one would think to avoid the USA, and Western Europe, and buy Asia and Emerging Markets. I particularly like small cap Emerging Markets and Asia, due to the decreased volatility.

Currently, I own the following: TCEMX, WAEMX, WAIOX, MSMLX, QUSOX, ODVCX, FAIRX, AVALX, HRVIX. Contemplating: HWACX, MXXVX, TESGX

All with 7% trailing loss stops of course!

I want to hone in on Tad’s comment regarding the use of PTTDX/HABDX as a choice once a sell signal for equities has been issued. Both funds indeed held up pretty well during the 2008 massacre as you can see in this 2 year chart:

They dropped close to 10%, which is far better than many bond funds, although the total bond ETF BND showed even less volatility.

However, I want to warn against becoming complacent and expecting this same performance in the event the markets turn down again.

As I pointed out before, we may very well be at the tail end of low interest rates, which could potentially result in bond prices taking a beating as well. Recently bond guru Bill Gross of PIMCO announced their own lineup of equity ETFs, which could be interpreted as them seeing more potential in equities than in bonds. Or, they could be simply interested in gathering more assets from a different source.

Be that as it may, to guard against any other surprises, align yourself with the market trends and not news events or predictions.

Disclosure: No holdings in the funds mentioned above.

A Trend Change In Bonds?

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

In “Bond Fund Investors Beware,” I referenced Pimco’s Bill Gross’ warning that the 30 year fixed income rally may have run its course. I talked about watching the trends for any clues of a reversal rather than relying on opinions or predictions.

Let’s use Vanguard’s Total Bond Market ETF (BND) as a guide for the general directions of the bond market. Here’s a 1-year chart:

While it is not clearly visible, the price actually broke below its 39-week long term trend line last week. While this not a guarantee that higher rates are imminent, it should be interpreted as a sign of caution.

As you can see, a trend line break occurred briefly in June 09 before the rally resumed, so you can never be sure. So far, last week’s break below the line has been less than 1%, but that could change in a hurry.

You may find this confusing as the Fed has just reiterated its current stance on continuing with a low interest rate policy for the time being.

My view is that the current pullback in bond prices (leading to higher interest rates) could simply be a reaction to the ever increasing borrowing needs. Whether you look at it globally or domestically, the debt overhang continues to be tremendous, and the need for funds to fulfill obligations is at an all-time high.

In that sense, the Fed may be powerless to control monetary policy, since demand (in this case for money) could be a stronger force able to override government policy and eventually affect the economic recovery.

Disclosure: We no longer have positions in BND