Out of the 1,000 or so ETFs that are currently available, I feature about half of them in my weekly StatSheet via the Master ETF list. The other half is too new and not yet worthy of tracking, since I like to see about 9 months of price data in order to be able to evaluate their trends.
Out of the 500 that I monitor, there are many tiny ETFs as far as net assets are concerned. Some will not survive, which brings up the question “What happens when an ETF folds?” Should you be worried?
My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:
http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php
A roller coaster ride took the starch out of the current uptrend, and the major indexes lost for the week.
Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs has moved above its trend line (red) by +4.16% (last week +5.58%) and remains in bullish mode.
The roller coaster ride continued after the major indexes were not able to build on Tuesday’s rally. Yesterday, it was nothing but treading water as the markets essentially went nowhere.
Fluctuating oil prices and the Libyan turmoil combined to keep short term market direction neutral. On the other hand, the bull looks to be getting a little old and lacking upward momentum as Mark Hulbert observed in “A bull on steroids:”
Oil continued to be in charge of market direction yesterday, as its intraday price rose to nearly $107 before falling back and closing at $105.44/barrel.
Driving prices higher was continued fighting in Libya, as insurgents squared up against Gaddafi’s forces in fierce battles with civilians now becoming casualties as well.
Since there seems to be no end in sight, fears of a stalling recovery as a result of rosining oil prices are certainly justified. Other hot spots in Saudi Arabia are not helping to ease any of these fears.
The markets have been on a slippery slope in part thanks to the price of oil catapulting above its $100/barrel threshold.
This is likely to continue throughout next week and beyond as unrest in the Middle East and N. Africa is sure to draw attention. The effect will likely be that the major indexes will again be torn by bullish and bearish sentiment as fears of a consumer slowdown and a subsequent derailing of the recovery will remain a major concern.
That’s the negative. The positive is that the domestic labor markets, at least in the latest report, have given encouragement that we finally may have turned the corner.
So what’s an investor to do?
Last Sunday, I talked about “Looking Ahead To The Next Crash.” Today, let’s look at some highlights from “The Last Down Leg:”
My market outlook hasn’t changed much since 2000: we’re in a secular bear market.
I know, the market made a new high in 2007. It made a new high in 1973 as well, then fell off a cliff until it reached bottom at the end of 1974.
If you look at all the secular bear markets on a chart, they all look pretty much the same; three down legs interspersed by two profitable counter-trend rallies. October 2002 to November 2007 was a very profitable counter-trend rally; the rally off the March 2009 lows has been pretty spectacular as well.
The thing is, you have to have that last down leg to finish out the cycle.