6 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 7/5/2011

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios, Uncategorized Contact

The market’s sharp rise last week affected all our ETF Model Portfolios in a positive way. While they did not move up as fast as the S&P 500 did, they also did not lose ground as quickly, when the markets declined 7 out of 8 weeks.

That has been my theme all along. When the major indexes were on a tear earlier this year, the S&P 500 raced ahead in terms of YTD performance by over 3% compared to some of our models. However, during the recent market decline, it trailed by over 3%; now it has again pulled ahead by a slight margin. 

Unless, you are a financial rollercoaster lover, you’re better off keeping a steady hand when it comes to the fluctuations of your portfolio – at least that is my preference.

Take a look at the changes of the past week:

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Gold ETFs Shine

Ulli Market Commentary, Uncategorized Contact

With the stock market mired in a bit of uncertainty, after last week’s run, it was the gold ETFs who brightened the day.

As the chart shows (courtesy of MarketWatch.com), the major market ETFs lacked direction and essentially went nowhere. Follow through buying from last week was non-existent as exuberance seemed to wane.

None of today’s news reports supported the upside as Moody’s cut Portugal’s debt rating to junk. The U.S. debt ceiling remained in the foreground along with new concerns about the health of China’s banking system. A worse than expected report on factory orders for May increased the sense of uncertainty.

That turned out to be the driver to push the precious metals higher, as gold reclaimed its psychologically important $1,500 level.

As I mentioned last Friday, I had to estimate the numbers for the Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs), as some data were not available. Here are the updated numbers as of today:

Domestic TTI: +3.96%

International TTI: +2.01%

I am still giving the International TTI a little wiggle room before issuing a new ‘Buy’ for that area. The reason is obvious in that we had just received a ‘Sell’ the middle of June, and I am trying to avoid a whip-saw signal.

Stay tuned.

Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated as of 7/1/2011

Ulli Mutual Funds On The Cutline Contact

Just like in yesterday’s ETF Cutline report, the rally of the past 5 days pushed many mutual funds out of negative territory, below the cutline, right through the first +20 listings above the cutline.

If you track any mutual funds, you know need to consult the weekly StatSheet for the exact location of those you are interested in. Consult the appropriate sections.

During the sharp rebound, some momentum figures have clearly improved, but they are still inconsistent at best. Additionally, the DrawDown numbers (DD% column) have not yet risen enough to wipe out the red figures, which means that in many cases we are still closer to a sell signal than reaching new highs.

Take a look:

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated through 7/1/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Closing the month of June with a bang and stepping into July with equal force, the major market ETFs have been on a tear for five days straight. How much of that momentum can be maintained is everyone’s guess.

The ETFs under discussion last week (TMW, VTI, VUG) rallied strongly and ended up above the listed +20 positions, so they are no longer visible on this report. If you care to track any of these, you now need to consult the Master ETF list. This will be necessary, whenever an ETF you follow has moved off the cutline table.

You can find the latest Master ETF list in last Friday’s StatSheet (section 3).

Take a look at the table:

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Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts

Ulli ETF News Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics that I posted to my blog during the week ending on 7/1/2011.

The past week, the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average served as springboard to propel the major market ETFs to their best performance in a year. Whether that move is backed by substance will be the focus after the 4th of July Holiday, when bond market traders return and will have to deal with the fact that QE-2 has expired. More volatility is sure to be our companion.

My published Cutline tables and Model ETF Portfolios can give you an assist by indentifying weakness and strength in various market segments so that you can make better investment decisions by avoiding exposure in those areas that are trending down.

This week, we covered the following:

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Reader Q & A: How Can I Get Fast Access To The StatSheet Numbers?

Ulli Reader feedback Contact

Reader Larry had the following question in regards to the fastest way to access my most recent market commentary along with the weekly StatSheet:

I am traveling quite a bit for work and access your blog from various computers. So I don’t have to scroll through a host of posts, is there an easy way for me to get right to the most recent StatSheet, so I can make my investment decision on the fly?

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