ETFs On The Cutline – Updated through 4/29/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

With equities gaining strongly last week to close out the month, surprising moves to the upside happened around the cutline (trend line) as well.

The Clean Energy ETF (PWB) rallied from a +2 position to +16 solidifying its rank on the bullish side. However, its momentum figures (see table) are still on the weak side.

The same applies to the Nanotechnology ETF (PXN), which came from a -7 position and crossed the cutline to settle at +11.

One of the more solid and steady advances, which has been apparent over the past couple of weeks, was PFF, which climbed from +3 to a +10 position. With all momentum figures being positive and a DD% of 0.00, this should be worthy of your attention if you are looking to deploy new money.

The Japan ETF (EWJ) made a big move from -18 to +9, but its momentum figures are still too negative. However, the largest advance of the week came from the biggest loser of the past few years. You won’t believe the rebound this ETF has made.

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Hindsight For Foresight: ETF News And Blog Posts

Ulli ETF News Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the topics that I posted to my blog during week ending on 5/1/2011.

Whether you are looking to deploy new money, or improve upon existing holdings, the Cutline tables and Model ETF Portfolios can assist you in making better investment decisions in the future, as another week loaded with uncertainties is upon us.

This week, we covered the following:

“The Ivy ETF Portfolio”

“How Low Can The Bullish Dollar ETF (UUP) Go?”

“ETF/No Load Fund Tracker for Friday 4/29/2011”

“Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker – Updated Through 4/28/2011”

“High Volume ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 4/27/2011”

“Can You Really Afford A Commission-Free ETF?”

“5 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 4/26/2011”

“Getting High On Silver ETFs”

“Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated as of 4/25/2011”

“Crop-Focused ETFs”

“ETFs On The Cutline – Updated through 4/21/2011”

The Ivy ETF Portfolio

Ulli The IVY Portfolio Contact

For a couple of years now, I have been charting the Ivy ETF Portfolio to see how well it would work within the rules of trend tracking.

If you are not familiar with “The Ivy Portfolio,” you can buy the book at Amazon. It shows step-by-step how to track and mimic the investment strategies of the highly successful Harvard and Yale endowments.

Using the endowment policy portfolios as a guide, the authors illustrate how an investor can develop a strategic asset allocation using an ETF-based investment approach.

More importantly, the book reveals a novel method for investors to reduce their risk through a tactical asset allocation to protect them from bear markets. Translated that simply means they are using a trend tracking approach to only remain invested during bull markets, while moving to the sidelines during bear markets.

It is trend tracking at its finest, but there are two major differences to the approach I have been advocating for over 20 years:

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How Low Can The Bullish Dollar ETF (UUP) Go?

Ulli Bullish Dollar ETF Contact

How much further can the dollar plummet? That was the question the WSJ (subscription required) tried to answer in “Dollar’s Race to the Bottom:”

Even as the tired mantra of a U.S strong dollar policy was repeated by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner this week and Ben Bernanke on Wednesday, the greenback continued plumbing new depths. The ICE dollar index is at its lowest since 2008. This year the dollar has hit record lows against the yen, the Australian dollar, the Swiss franc and the Singapore dollar, J.P. Morgan notes. All the forces look negative. But investors should weigh the risks carefully.

Most obviously, the dollar is suffering from ultraloose U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve continues to hold rates at zero and buy bonds. While the money printing is finally scheduled to end in June, the Fed still plans an extended period of low rates. Meanwhile, central banks elsewhere are firmly in rate-raising mode, including the European Central Bank, which seems determined to burnish its inflation-busting credentials. A big yield differential between the U.S. and Europe could open up.

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker For Friday, April 29, 2011

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/04/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-updated-through-4282011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, April 29, 2011

STIMULUS STAMPEDE

While investors started the week out being a little edgy about the 2-day Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Fed stayed the course in regards to interest rates. The economy is still too weak to start raising rates from these record low levels, according to chairman Bernanke. While the Fed admitted that inflation is rising, the longer-term trends are considered stable.

The central bank also agreed to continue with its Quantitative Easing 2 (QE-2) until the end of June, as scheduled, while a third round of easing is not on the drawing board. All that was music to

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker – Updated Through 4/28/2011

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, April 28, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY— since 6/3/2009

As announced via a blog post, on 6/2/2009, the TTI triggered a buy signal with an effective date of 6/3/2009. We will use the 7% trailing stop loss of our positions as an exit point or the crossing of the trend line to the downside, whichever occurs first.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +5.99%.

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