Weak Economic News Drag Down Equity ETFs

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Weak economic news proved to be a drag on equity ETFs as Europe’s main engine, Germany, just about stalled in regards to second quarter GDP. Domestically, housing starts in July were nothing to brag about.

German and French leaders proposed to better coordinate financial planning and to enact a tax on financial transactions. Lovely; I wonder if there ever will be a solution forthcoming that involves cutting waste and not raising taxes. Go figure…

In any event, our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) ended up in the following positions:

Read More

Major Market ETFs Surge On Buyout

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

The markets stayed in rally mode for the third day in a row, supported by rises in Asia and Europe, along with the announcement by Google to buy Motorola Mobility. The major Market ETFs have now recovered all of their losses since the U.S. debt downgrade on August 5.

Despite this bit of euphoria, the problems that prompted the downturn have not gone away yet. A domestic recession is still the cards, and Europe’s banking system is in dire straits.

Technically, the markets remain in correction mode meaning the major indexes are still off their April 29 peaks by more than 10%. Maybe that explains that today’s volume was very light suggesting that there is not much conviction behind this up move.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) showed improvement as well and are positioned relative to their long-term trend lines as follows:

Read More

ETF Master Cutline List – Updated Through 8/12/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

After another wild week in the markets, with a downward bias, the number of ETFs residing above the cutline has been reduced again, which is no surprise. At this point, there are only 36 ETFs positioned in Bull Market territory, above the Cutline, while 360 ETFs are stuck on the Bear Market side.

Leading the pack are the precious metals, followed by long-term/intermediate government bonds, indicating the flight to safety is still on.

Take a look at the latest report:

Read More

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 8/14/2011

Ulli ETF News Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 8/14/2011.

More breathtaking downside moves followed by just as breathtaking recoveries had investors on edge—not just domestically but globally as well. Because of the rebounds, this week’s losses were somewhat modest, considering what could have been. The S&P 500 gave back 1.7%.

I believe that these wide market swings are far from being over, although we could see a short rest period before the European debt crisis shifts into the next gear.

In any event, if you followed my sell stops rules, you should not have any equity exposure at this time with the exception of a couple of sector/country ETFs or hedged positions.

This week, we covered the following:

Read More

Reader Q&As: I Missed The Domestic Sell Signal – What Do I Do With My ETFs? When Do I Rebalance the PRPFX Hedge?

Ulli Reader feedback Contact

With the wild market behavior of the past few weeks, it’s no surprise that many readers having written in with a variety of questions. Today, I want to address two of them, which were most often asked:

I am newly implementing your stop loss strategy.  I regrettably have missed the 7% mark and have let my losses become larger due to the recent market volatility, and my own unwatchfulness. I have exited some of my positions. 

I was wondering what you would recommend now for the rest of my holdings. Should I sell at a larger loss, and protect any remaining profits, or should I wait for a bounce in the markets before exiting? Or, should I wait at this point for an all out domestic sell order?  I am sure that from here on out I will keep closer stop losses!  Thanks so much for your guidance.

Read More

ETF Leaders And Laggards – For The Week Ending 8/12/2011

Ulli ETF Leaders & Laggards Contact

Here is a quick ETF review of the past week’s winners and losers from my High Volume ETF Master list:

Major Market ETFs got spanked again, but to a lesser degree than the prior week. We had a change in some of the leaders and laggards.

As was no surprise, the flight to safety continued making GLD, GDX and TLT the top gainers for the past five trading days. On the downside, some country ETFs got hammered, but ECH resisted, as less risky investments, and those considered a currency equivalent (gold), were drawing funds away from equities.

Domestically, we are still bouncing around the long-term trend line, a condition which is sure to be temporary, until a breakout occurs. The open question is will it be deeper into bear market territory or back into the bullish camp.

Both options are possible but, looking at the overall global landscape, a downside break is more likely at least from the facts as they are available right now. There will always be bounces, the question is whether they have legs or not. My guess is that we eventually will break further into bear territory; if not, I will adjust my positions based on the changes in momentum.

Disclosure: Holdings in GLD, TLT