Last Week’s Lessons: ETF News And Blog Posts

Ulli ETF News Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the topics that I posted to my blog during week ending on 5/8/2011.

With a very volatile week now in the rearview mirror, consulting the Cutline tables and Model ETF Portfolios can assist you in making better investment decisions in the future, as another week loaded with uncertainties is upon us.

This week, we covered the following:

Are Commodity ETFs Bursting?

Reader Q&A: How Much Of An ETF Profit Is Enough Without Being Greedy?

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker For Friday, May 6, 2011”

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker – Updated Through 5/5/2011

Oil ETFs Suffer From Demand Fear

High Volume ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 5/4/2011

Precious Metal ETFs: Higher Or Lower Prices Ahead?”

6 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 5/3/2011

How TIPs Inflate Their Yields

Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated as of 5/2/2011

Gold ETF (GLD) Outshines Gold Mining ETF (GDX)

ETFs On The Cutline – Updated through 4/29/2011”

Are Commodity ETFs Bursting?

Ulli Commodity ETFs Contact

With the commodity markets having it taken on the chin last week, this may be a good time to review what famed investment manager Jeremy Grantham had to say about this sector a week or so ago.

Here’s his view, as well as the markets in general, in “Bad China, good weather will bust commodity market ‘en masse:’”

Jeremy Grantham said there is a 25 percent chance that China, the world’s second-largest economy, will “stumble” by next year over imbalances such as too much capital spending, an overheating real estate market or accelerating inflation.

“You could have a financial stumble, a housing stumble, a stumble from rebalancing of capital spending, or any combination thereof,” Grantham, chief investment officer of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co., said in an April 26 interview in Boston.

China’s economic growth may “slow to considerably less” than the 9.7 percent pace reported for the first quarter, Grantham said. Inflation accelerated to 5.4 percent in March, the fastest pace since July 2008, adding more pressure on officials to tighten monetary policy.

Grantham, 72, is best known for his bearish outlook and for spotting asset bubbles early. He correctly forecast in 2000 that U.S. stocks would decline in the coming decade, and as early as July 2007 predicted that a large global bank would go bust amid credit market declines. He recommended buying U.S. stocks for a five-month period starting in early 2009 in what he called “my very short life as a bull.”

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Reader Q&A: How Much Of An ETF Profit Is Enough Without Being Greedy?

Ulli Sell Stops Contact

I had some email exchanges with reader Bob, who responded with the ultimate question. Here’s what he had to say:

I am using a 7% trailing stop for all ETF’s.  So far, none have hit the execution point.  The one issue I am struggling with is when to take a profit.

For example, I have MDY up 25% and IVV up 10%. Usually, I wait too long, and the ETF heads south before I realize it.  The trailing stop will take care of a market reversal.

How much profit is enough without being greedy?

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker For Friday, May 6, 2011

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/05/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-updated-through-552011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, May 6, 2011

WHACKING THE BULLS

After last week’s strong rally, it was time for the bears to show some muscle and pull the major indexes back into reality territory. After 4 days of selling, euphoria about today’s better than expected jobs report pulled the market out of the doldrums via a sharp opening upside spike.

I am not sure if this was a partial dead cat bounce, but sentiment

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker – Updated Through 5/5/2011

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, May 5, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY— since 6/3/2009

As announced via a blog post, on 6/2/2009, the TTI triggered a buy signal with an effective date of 6/3/2009. We will use the 7% trailing stop loss of our positions as an exit point or the crossing of the trend line to the downside, whichever occurs first.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +4.85%.

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Oil ETFs Suffer From Demand Fear

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Crude oil took a steep dive today and closed below the $100 level for the first time since the middle of March. USO, the ETF equivalent, lost 9.11% for the day.

The entire commodity index followed suit with DBC dropping 6.7%, while gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) gave back 2.88% and 11.89% respectively. The dollar was the beneficiary and gained against the major currencies.

One of the reasons for the recent fall of the metals was that margin requirements had been raised; in some cases by 84% over the past two weeks. With many commodity speculators “investing” on borrowed money, selling the positions was the only viable option.

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