7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 9/6/2011

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

In a reversal from the prior week, the S&P 500 managed to lose -3.96% since my last ETF Model Portfolio report on 8/31/11. Despite that drop, 5 of our 7 portfolios gained, while one stayed unchanged and one lost slightly.

The reason is that, due to our sell stop discipline, we have gotten rid of all volatile positions and have held on only to those that are in tune with current market momentum. In the case of our #3 portfolio (aggressive growth), that has meant being invested in only bonds and gold, which happen to be the star performers at this time.

Despite having given back a fraction of a percentage last week, the #7 portfolio (ETF equivalent of PRPFX) continues to be the top dog and is holding up very well during severe market corrections.

Take a look at this week’s report:

Read More

Major Market ETFs Head Lower, But Damage Is Limited

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

At the open, the markets looked downright ugly as the Dow was briefly down some 300 points before a slow rebound cut into the early losses.

Financial stability in Europe, or the lack thereof, along with a fallout from Friday’s poor unemployment numbers combined to support the bearish case for the moment. Yesterday’s pounding of the European markets caused by worries about a possible Greek default, which might threaten the solvency of a number of European banks, set the tone for today’s opening.

Well, if you missed it, Greek 1-year bonds are generating a yield of over 80%. Does anyone really think they won’t default?

Read More

Precious Metal ETFs Remain The Leaders; ETF Master Cutline List – Updated through 9/2/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Another volatile week did little to change the ETF Master Cutline list, as now 47 ETFs hover above the line, while 349 remain below it and in bear market territory.

The leaders are similar to last week in that Precious Metal ETFs still take top billing followed by bond ETFs of all different durations. No surprise there, as last Friday’s sell off pushed the 10-year bond rate below the 2% level for the first time.

Continuously lower interest rates are a sign that all is not well in economic wonderland, and we will most likely have to face some kind of fallout from the poor jobs report after the holiday weekend.

Take a look the latest report:

Read More

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 9/4/2011

Ulli ETF News Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 9/4/2011.

Despite the almost unchanged position of the S&P 500 after the past week, we ended the week on a sour note as a result of the horrific jobs report.

This goes along with my view that these wide market swings are far from being over, with more fallout from the jobs report likely to come. Additionally, the European debt crisis could worsen rapidly and affect the U.S. markets as well.

In any event, if you followed my sell stops rules, you should not have any equity exposure at this time with the possible exception of a couple of sector/country ETFs, or hedged positions.

This week, we covered the following:

Read More

ETF Volatility Likely To Continue In September

Ulli Market Review Contact

After the month of August unleashed bearish forces and gave investors wild rides on both sides of the unchanged line, we are now facing September, which historically has been the worst performing month for the equity markets.

MarketWatch had some thoughts on what’s coming up in “Looking at a scary September:”

This September is likely to be particularly volatile as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke deferred any new simulative action until the now two-day Fed meeting on Sept. 20 and 21.

Also, International Monetary Fund leader Christine Lagarde said the global economy was in a dangerous phase while Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, said last week that the Fed, “can’t do it all,” adding further to the uncertainty facing us as we leave the dog days of summer behind.

Beyond the gloom from the Tetons, a continuing stream of economic reports indicates that the economy continues to slow towards “stall speed.” Manufacturing has dropped to contraction levels and the revision to second-quarter GDP to 1% brought the economy perilously close to negative growth.

Seasonality also points to a rocky ride ahead as Septembers are historically the worst performing month for the stock market. Since 1928, September has recorded more down months than any other month and also holds the record for the worst monthly drop in history which came in September, 1931, when the Dow lost -30%. Septembers can be an “up” month, but the percentage of positive Septembers is the lowest of any month on the calendar.

Read More

ETF Leaders And Laggards – For The Week Ending 9/2/2011

Ulli ETF Leaders & Laggards Contact

Here is a quick ETF review of the past week’s winners and losers from my High Volume ETF Master list:

While the past week produced increased volatility, the S&P 500 closed barely changed from the prior Friday.

Nevertheless, the sharp rebound during the first two trading days had an effect on the Leaders and Laggards listings, as some of our old favorites were replaced by several country ETFs that took top billing—at least for this moment in time.

BRF, EWZ, EZA and ECH were some of the leaders this week; however, their negative M-Index figures clearly indicate that more upside momentum is needed to make sure that this move was not just temporary.

On the Laggards side, things look weak as well, as the M-Indexes are deeply entrenched in bearish territory.

As I have posted repeatedly, given the current state of affairs, being on the sidelines or in hedged positions is the most sensible investment approach, until the major trends and more positive momentum figures point to a different and improved environment.

Disclosure: No Holdings in ETFs discussed