ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, September 16, 2011

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/09/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-9152011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, September 15, 2011

FROM SELL-OFF TO REBOUND

The prior week’s sell-off is now only visible in the rear view mirror, as the Major Market ETFs put the pedal to the metal and rallied for 5 straight days. As I have commented throughout the week, the upper end of the past months trading range for the S&P 500 (1,220) came into play today, as the index touched but did not break through that resistance point.

While worries about Europe were shelved for most of the week, which provided the fuel for this rebound, fears crept back into the market as a meeting of finance ministers in Poland showed no progress. The only agreement was that they agreed to meet again in October to determine whether Greek will receive the next bailout payment. The irony is that it’s not certain whether Greece will even need the money by then; their government may have run out of cash long before that…

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 9/15/2011

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, September 15, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

Important Note: Due to software issues, the data in this StatSheet are only updated for ETFs. The Mutual Fund data links are last week’s. Hope to have that problem resolved by early next week.  

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 8/9/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. I will not issue a new Buy signal until this index has clearly pierced the trend line to the upside and has remained there.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken back above its long term trend line (red) by +2.14%.

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Equity ETFs Move to Upper End of Trading Range—Another Head fake?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Last Monday, I commented that the S&P 500 has been range trading over the past month from a low of 1,120 to a high of some 1,220.

We are now approaching the high end of the range again, and the questions remains as to whether resistance will kick in again at that level or at 1,217, which represents the index’s 50-day exponential moving average.

Powering today’s rally were news reports that five major central banks, including the Fed, had agreed to provide dollar liquidity for the European banking system in order to stave off a potential credit crunch.

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High Volume ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 9/14/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Momentum is not heading in the right direction, if you are looking for opportunities on the long side using equity ETFs.

Since last week’s report, the S&P 500 has given back -0.83%, but the number of ETFs positioned above the line and therefore in bullish territory has been reduced to only 7. It includes the same old performers we have been seeing on top of the list for some time.

This tells me that, despite the various rebound attempts, weakness prevails in the equity arena. I would consider the current market environment to be a traders market and not one for long term investors due to its extreme volatile nature. A long term trend in either direction can simply not yet be identified without wild guesswork.

To repeat, the High Volume ETF Cutline report includes all ETFs above and below the cutline (trend line). To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 90 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations.

Take a look at the most recent table:

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Skepticism Prevails As Major Market ETFs Head Higher

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

The markets had nothing to go on other than hope and wishful thinking that Greece will be saved and remain in the European Union, while speculation grew that China may throw an assist to Europe’s indebted nations.

However, skepticism set in towards the end of the trading day, as cooler heads prevailed by concluding that today may have been just a short-term bounce and that Greece will default on its bond anyway and very likely take a few banks down with it.

Optimistic statements from German chancellor Merkel and her French counterpart supported the rally and also Treasury Secretary Geithner’s forecast that Europe will not see a major financial collapse added some stability in the market place.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 9/13/2011

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

While the S&P 500 managed to gain a slight +0.69% since last week’s update, most portfolios declined to varying degrees as the precious metals, along with the Swiss Franc, took a hit over the past few trading days. That impacted our core holding PRPFX.

There will be days like that, but overall, PRPFX has held steady and has come off its high price by only -2.08% while it hovers above its respective trend line by +2.71%.

Uncertainty about the European debt crisis is at an all-time high as a Greek default is widely expected and pretty much priced in. However, the effect on the European banking system in general is the big unknown along with the unanswered question as to the potential spillover on to the domestic U.S. markets.

Take a look at this week’s report:

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