ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, November 4, 2011

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/11/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-1132011/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

Friday, November 4, 2011

BACK TO THE DOWNSIDE, BUT SOMEWHAT FLAT – WHAT’S NEXT FOR ETFs?

For the second straight Friday, markets were relatively flat although erring to the downside as the S&P 500 finished down 0.63%. Commodities marginally fluctuated and the dollar remained stuck at $1.38/Euro. Meanwhile, the VIX dipped a mere 1.11%. Volatility might be slightly down, but we still above the 30 level, so I’d be hard pressed to say we’re in risk off mode. Europe’s problems are far from over and the Greek situation has reached new heights of absurdity that I am highly cautious about in regards to how I maintain equity exposure.

Undoubtedly, the primary focus right now remains on Greece. The level of political gridlock is simply appalling and if Papandreou steps aside and the new government can’t muster the will to accept the EU’s bailout package, the extent of contagion emanating from a default could be disastrous. Greece might be the first domino to fall and this would put considerable stress on Italy and Spain to remain standing financially, especially as its bond yields reach record highs.

Furthermore, the funding plan for the EFSF is still not in place with $1.4 trillion as the target. World leaders once again reiterated that Europe needs to handle its debt issues on its own before it gets outside help via the IMF and making aid deals with countries such as China. This tension could spill over into next week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if, like this week, the beginning of the next week is fraught by a large market drop.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/3/2011

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, November 3, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities is in effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken back above its long term trend line (red) by +3.47%.

Read More

Equity ETFs Rally Again, But There’s Still a Long Road Ahead

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Major Market ETFs roared back for a second straight day despite persistent uncertainty in Europe. The S&P 500 bumped up 1.88% while commodities also did well, with oil and gold rising 1.20% and 2.16%, respectively.

While some optimism has crept back into the market, I find it puzzling how the European negativity appears to be so severely discounted. The current trends justify some equity ETF exposure on the domestic side, but I am maintaining a cautious approach as to how I achieve the exposure in the wake of these volatile swings.

With Trichet out, Draghi has set the tone for the start of his ECB presidency. He has spearheaded recovery efforts by loosening monetary policy, cutting rates by 0.25 percent. This should hopefully ease credit flow and uplift markets, especially amidst widespread austerity that is choking economies throughout Europe.

Read More

Major Market ETFs Rebound — Fed Policy Remains Unchanged

Ulli Market Review Contact

While the Fed left current interest unchanged at record low levels, it will also continue with operation “Twist” by buying longer term treasuries and selling the short end of the yield curve.

The Fed’s view of the economy was considered “frustratingly slow” but appeared to be somewhat stronger than in October. After the announcement, the markets briefly sold off as traders had hoped for another round of Quantitative Easing. However, the Fed’s affirmation that they would in fact act, should the economy fall apart, was interpreted as a positive for equities supporting the rebound into the close.

Read More

7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 11/1/2011

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

Just as the European debt crisis seemed to have been brought under control, the Greek PM threw a wrench in the agreement by announcing a referendum to be held later on this year to decide on the bailout proposal. I commented on this latest development more extensively in yesterday’s market commentary.

The markets, as measured by the S&P 500, gave back over 5% in the past 2 trading days, which affected our portfolios as well, but not as severely due to our high cash/bond positions:

Here is the latest update:

Read More

Striking a Tragic Fate – Are Equity ETFs Destined for a Downfall?

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

As the situation in Europe unfolds, equity ETFs tumbled once again as the S&P fell 2.79%. And after a period where it looked like volatility was falling, the risk switch has turned back on again, with the VIX rising 16.05% to 34.77.

Also, the dollar improved against the Euro to end the day at $1.37/Euro. We might’ve been approaching bull range, but uninspiring economic indicators and political frictions in Europe suggest we won’t be making much headway any time soon.

Just when the European crisis appeared to be improving, the emergence of the Greek referendum has put a nail in the coffin. Letting the public decide whether or not to accept the bailout can have a destabilizing impact, if it’s rejected. The bottom line is that Greece completely lacks credibility and is becoming the laughing stock of the EU. But the joke isn’t funny anymore.

Read More