ETF/No Load Fund Tracker For Friday, June 17, 2011

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/06/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-updated-through-6162011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, June 17, 2011

ETFs IN RETREAT: STAGGERING NORTH, SOUTH AND NOWHERE

Tuesday’s relief rally (or was it a dead cat bounce?) is now a distant memory, only visible in the rear view mirror, as Wednesday’s return to reality took back all of the previous day’s gains and then some.

There was nothing new, as the same old worries about global growth, domestic inflation and the now out of control spinning Greek debt crisis took their toll and sent the major market ETFs to the mat. The remainder of the week was spent in aimless meandering depending on the news reports du jour.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker – Updated Through 6/16/2011

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, June 16, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY— since 6/3/2009

As announced via a blog post, on 6/2/2009, the TTI triggered a buy signal with an effective date of 6/3/2009. We will use the 7% trailing stop loss of our positions as an exit point or the crossing of the trend line to the downside, whichever occurs first.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +2.06%.

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High Volume ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 6/15/2011

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While Tuesday’s rebound raised hopes of a turn in short-term market direction, Wednesday’s sharp drop put an end to that hope – at least for the time being. Weakness in all areas of the market becomes especially clear in the High Volume Cutline report due to it covering only 90 ETFs.

To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of 90 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations.

Here are the changes in positions by some of the widely held indexes:

XLY (Consumer Discretionary) from +20 to +7.

VTI (Total Stock Market Index) from +19 to +5.

SPY (S&P 500) from +12 to +4.

IWM (Russell 2000) from +13 to +3

And sinking below the cutline were the following ETFs:

EFA (Foreign Large Blend) from +18 to -11.

VWO (Emerging Markets) from +7 to -14.

BRF (Brazil Small Cap) from +10 to -16

First, take a look at the table and then read my latest market update:

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Triple Punch Knocks Down Major Market ETFs – International Sell Signal Generated

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The day started out to the downside, as a triple punch took the starch right out of yesterday’s rebound rally, which at this point looks like a dead cat bounce.

Industrial production barely grew in May, manufacturing in the New York region unexpectedly fell and consumer prices rose 0.2%, which was slightly ahead of expectations.

Add to that a falling home builders housing market index and a downwardly revised number for capacity utilization, and you are finally seeing the emperor without clothes, i.e. real data of an economy without stimulus.

The Greek debt saga shifted into overdrive pushing the euro to its lowest level in a month against the dollar. The EU is deadlocked on a second rescue package for Greek, and it appears at this time that a default in the near future has become a distinct possibility.

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6 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 6/14/2011

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The continued sell-off, saved by yesterday’s rebound, caused a shift in YTD performance of our various portfolios. The income portfolio (#5) moved back into the #1 spot with a gain of +4.89%, which was followed by the #3 portfolio with +4.79% and the #1 portfolio +4.28%.

VEU (Foreign Large Blend) triggered its trailing sell stop and was sold on 6/13/11. This affected the holdings in portfolios #2, #3 and #4. With the markets showing continued weakness, I will wait before replacing this position.

We also came close to liquidating our holding in VDE (Energy), which had clearly pierced its 10% trailing sell stop. Thanks to yesterday’s rally, we dropped back below it and lived another day to talk about it.

Again, the idea behind these models is not for you to be invested in the top performer but in a portfolio that represents ‘your’ personal risk tolerance – and not someone else’s.

Take a look at this week’s numbers:

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Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated as of 6/13/2011

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Amazingly, the continued sell off pushed all of last week’s equity mutual fund listings off the report and further below the long-term trend line (cutline) to a point where they have slipped below the -20 position.

All of them were replaced by new weak equity funds dropping in from a level above the highest featured +20 spot. The number of funds having lost momentum can be seen by the very narrow range of their respective positions to the trend line. This week’s +20 listing, APGAX, sits only +0.09% above the trend line, while the worst fund, SWMSX, is located only -0.13% below it.

One look at the DD% (DrawDown) column on the right hand side tells the story better than any picture could, as more and more funds have broken through their 7% trailing sell stop levels.

Take a peek at this week’s cutline report:

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