ETF Leaders And Laggards – For The Week Ending 8/12/2011

Ulli ETF Leaders & Laggards Contact

Here is a quick ETF review of the past week’s winners and losers from my High Volume ETF Master list:

Major Market ETFs got spanked again, but to a lesser degree than the prior week. We had a change in some of the leaders and laggards.

As was no surprise, the flight to safety continued making GLD, GDX and TLT the top gainers for the past five trading days. On the downside, some country ETFs got hammered, but ECH resisted, as less risky investments, and those considered a currency equivalent (gold), were drawing funds away from equities.

Domestically, we are still bouncing around the long-term trend line, a condition which is sure to be temporary, until a breakout occurs. The open question is will it be deeper into bear market territory or back into the bullish camp.

Both options are possible but, looking at the overall global landscape, a downside break is more likely at least from the facts as they are available right now. There will always be bounces, the question is whether they have legs or not. My guess is that we eventually will break further into bear territory; if not, I will adjust my positions based on the changes in momentum.

Disclosure: Holdings in GLD, TLT

08-12-2011

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, August 12, 2011

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/08/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-8112011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, August 12, 2011

BULLS MANAGE DAMAGE CONTROL

In a way, the bulls lucked out this week, as the rebounds of the past couple of days wiped out some sharp losses, which resulted in the benchmark S&P 500 ‘only’ giving back 1.7%.

Retail sales figures suggested that consumers are still spending, which proved to be the catalyst for today’s continuation to the upside. That was somewhat surprising and contradictory as the consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest level since 1980 indicating that consumer are not very optimistic. No surprise there, as more opinions abound that another recession is probable.

Despite the two up days, many challenges remain. Suspiciously absent from the news menu were more negative reports from the European debt crisis, which could shift into the next higher gear at anytime and roil world markets.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) diverged and are showing the following positions relative to their long-term trend lines:

Domestic TTI: +0.82% (last week -0.06%)
International TTI: -9.27% (last week -8.20%)

As you can see, the international TTI has sunk further into bear market territory, while its domestic cousin has again started nibbling on the plus side. However, the widely followed Golden Cross/Death Cross just turned negative by -0.19%. If you are not familiar with this combo, you can read about it here.

As I posted before, I will not issue a new Buy signal for that arena until the trend line has not only been clearly pierced to the upside, but has also shown me some staying power. The reason is to avoid a potential whipsaw signal.

The S&P 500 remains stuck below its widely followed 200-day M/A by -8.31% indicating that a lot more momentum to the upside is needed before this rebound can be considered a return to the bullish territory.

Strong headwinds remain, and it is a wide open guess as to whether volatility will slow down in the near future. Our PRPFX hedge is still on the positive side and the current status is as follows:

I will hold on to this hedged position for the time being.

Next week, we’ll be looking at a bunch of housing reports along with Industrial Production, PPI, CPI, Initial Claims and Leading Indicators.

Being on the conservative side with your investments, either out of the market or hedged, is a wise course of action, unless you have a reckless killer gambling instinct, which you needed to comfortably make it through a week like the past one.

Have a great week.

Ulli…

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Don:

Q: Ulli: Do you think it would be o.k. to get into the market now with a purchase of PRPFX and the 50% hedge with SH the following day when the fund settles?  I would think since the position is hedged, it wouldn’t make too much difference when the positions are established.

Right of wrong?

Thanks for your valuable input.

A: Don: Say, you have an order in to buy PRPFX today, then, ideally, you want to buy SH at the close today to have the proper ratio to start with. It’s usually not exactly possible, but you can come close if you buy within 10 minutes of the close.

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https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, August 12, 2011

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/08/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-8112011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, August 12, 2011

BULLS MANAGE DAMAGE CONTROL

In a way, the bulls lucked out this week, as the rebounds of the past couple of days wiped out some sharp losses, which resulted in the benchmark S&P 500 ‘only’ giving back 1.7%.

Retail sales figures suggested that consumers are still spending, which proved to be the catalyst for today’s continuation to the upside. That was somewhat surprising and contradictory as the consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest level since 1980 indicating that consumer are not very optimistic. No surprise there, as more opinions abound that another recession is probable.

Despite the two up days, many challenges remain. Suspiciously absent from the news menu were more negative reports from the European debt crisis, which could shift into the next higher gear at anytime and roil world markets.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) diverged and are showing the following positions relative to their long-term trend lines:

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 8/11/2011

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, August 11, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 8/9/2011

This past week, the domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the past few days, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. I will not issue a new Buy signal until this index has clearly pierced the trend line to the upside and has remained there for a few trading days.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +0.19%.

Read More

The Roller Coaster Ride Is Alive And Well – Major Market ETFs Rebound Sharply

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Another breathtaking day in the market, this time on the bullish side, pushed the S&P 500 exactly back to Tuesday’s level.

A modest rebound, fueled by better jobless claims and no bad news out of Europe, turned into a monster rally as short covering proved to be the catalyst to wipe out Wednesday’s losses.

Of course, as we have seen recently, short covering rallies don’t have much duration, which means I don’t read much into one day market bounces, since they tend to be head fakes more often than not.

This is the time to be either out of this market insanity or in a hedged position. Outright long or short positions can easily result in big losses.

As was to be expected, with that strong of a rebound, our Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) rose and settled slightly on the plus side.

Here are today’s TTI closing numbers:

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Another Wild Ride For Equity ETFs

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

If the market swings and this enormous volatility leave you speechless, you’re probably not alone.

Based on today’s market activity, yesterday sure looked like a dead cat bounce. Contributing to the negative bias were recession concerns at home and the ever worsening debt crisis in Europe, for which there simply is no painless solution.

This is the type of market that moves with lightening speed supporting my often voiced view that you have to prepare you exit strategy during times of calmness. This assures that you don’t stress out when the heat is on and you simply focus on executing your trailing sell stops as they get triggered. That’s how things are handled in my advisor practice.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) slipped with the market confirming my opinion that we have entered bear market territory. Here’s are today’s closing numbers:

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