Ulli... The ETF Bully

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts

Ulli Sunday, 19 June 2011, 12:15 PM ETF News Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the topics that I posted to my blog during the week ending on 6/19/2011.

Downward market momentum pushed our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) below its long-term trend line into bear market territory generating a Sell for that area, as I posted last Wednesday.

Will the Domestic TTI follow? While that is still unclear right now, I will report the latest updates as they become relevant. Stay tuned.

My published Cutline tables and Model ETF Portfolios can give you an assist by indentifying weakness and strength in various market segments so that you can make better investment decisions by avoiding exposure in those areas that are trending down.

This week, we covered the following:

Sunday Musings: 3 Fund Managers Are Missing The Mark

Ulli Sunday, 19 June 2011, 5:45 AM Mutual Fund Managers Contact

Here’s an interesting article on the subject of fund managers, which I have talked about on various occasions over the years. First, take a look at some highlights from “Berkowitz, Heebner and Miller in tight battle—for last place:”

Three famed stock-pickers having a dismal year so far, with big bets crapping out; still time to be right, however.

Bruce Berkowitz, Kenneth Heebner and Bill Miller, three of the best-known U.S. stock pickers, are competing for last place this year after their bets on an economic expansion backfired.

Funds run by Berkowitz of Fairholme Capital Management LLC, Heebner of Capital Growth Management LP and Miller of Legg Mason Inc. (LM) are the three worst performers among large diversified U.S. mutual funds in 2011, according to data from Chicago-based Morningstar Inc. The funds lost 11 percent to 12 percent through June 9, compared with a gain of 3.4 percent for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

“People assume because certain managers have had good streaks that they are always going to be a step ahead of the market,” Russel Kinnel, director of mutual fund research at Morningstar, said in a telephone interview. “It never works out that way.”

Read More

ETF Leaders And Laggards – For The Week Ending 6/17/2011

Ulli Saturday, 18 June 2011, 12:15 PM ETF Leaders & Laggards Contact

Here is a quick review of the past week’s winners and losers from my High Volume ETF Master list:

Resisting the trend changes last week were the retail ETF (XRT) and the Vanguard REIT Index (VNQ).

Please note that the biggest loser was the U.S. Gas fund (UNG), which I featured recently. While it broke above its long term trend line for the first time in years, I sidestepped the opportunity due to its high risk.

As it turns out, UNG retreated again below its long term trend line, and it appears that the break out to the upside was just another head fake.

Disclosure: No holdings

Reader Q & A: Setting Up An ETF Model Portfolio Template

Ulli Saturday, 18 June 2011, 5:56 AM Reader feedback Contact

Several readers have emailed wanting to know if a template for the ETF Model Portfolios was available and/or what it would take to do the daily updates. Here’s what Dan had to say:

Are the spreadsheets for your ETF Model Portfolios available in template form somewhere on your website? Or do you suggest that readers draw them up on their own? Also, is it right that you update the prices from Yahoo Finance? How much of the work must be done manually, such as setting the new highs for each fund or ETF?

There is no template available and you would need to set up you own on a spreadsheet using my matrix as an example.

If you want to follow all 6 ETF model portfolios on a daily basis, you should first set up all ETFs as a portfolio in YahooFinance. The prices on that list can then be downloaded as a spreadsheet and pasted into your personal worksheet.

06-17-2011

Ulli Friday, 17 June 2011, 4:39 PM Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/06/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-updated-through-6162011/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

Friday, June 17, 2011

ETFs IN RETREAT: STAGGERING NORTH, SOUTH AND NOWHERE

Tuesday’s relief rally (or was it a dead cat bounce?) is now a distant memory, only visible in the rear view mirror, as Wednesday’s return to reality took back all of the previous day’s gains and then some.

There was nothing new, as the same old worries about global growth, domestic inflation and the now out of control spinning Greek debt crisis took their toll and sent the major market ETFs to the mat. The remainder of the week was spent in aimless meandering depending on the news reports du jour.

In the end, the Dow and the S&P 500 managed to eke out tiny gains for the week, while the Nasdaq lost. In case you missed it, and you are one looking for extreme high returns, the Greek 2-year bond is now sporting a mind boggling 30% yield. Does that sound like an investment that will be around in 2 years? I think not.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) slipped with the markets and, as I posted on Wednesday, the International TTI has now entered officially bear market territory, since it had dropped considerably from last Friday’s close.

Here’s where both indicators stand in relation to their long-term trend lines after the close today:

Domestic TTTI: +1.87% (last week +2.16%)
International TTI: -1.69% (last week -0.70%)

European politicians are now in a feeding frenzy desperately trying to overcome their differences and maintain face while attempting to convince the world that Greece deserves more rescue funds no matter what.

I am certain that this debt debacle will continue to be front page news next week as will be the FOMC rate decision along with a few economic reports like home sales, initial claims, GDP and durable orders.

Be sure to track your trailing sell stops on all holdings, if you do your own investing. Earlier this week, I liquidated our positions in the energy sector (VDE) and today, I sold the emerging markets (VWO). Interestingly, while VWO was still positioned slightly above its sell stop point, it had pierced its respective long-term trend line to the downside making that move a priority.

Volatile times in the market are certain to stay with us a while longer, so prepare your next move ahead of time. That way, you don’t sweat it when the market heat is on.

Have a great week.

Ulli…

————————————————————-

READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Myth:

Q: Ulli: I want to try one of your model portfolios for my 401(k). I’m thinking of selling my current holdings in my 401k and buy those funds in one of those portfolios. Is that a good idea? I don’t manage my 401k well so I want to try yours. I have a brokerage account in my 401k which would allow me to do that.

A: Myth: Yes, you can do that, but not right now. We are on the verge of slipping into bear market territory, and you should be watching your sell stops and not adding new positions or switching to a different portfolio.

———————————————————-

WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

———————————————————

Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/