Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 12/01/2011

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, December 1, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities is in effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +2.64%. Tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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ETF Tug-O-War: Will Markets Resist Getting Pulled Down?

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Markets have followed an interesting pattern this week with huge gains followed by flat activity. The S&P 500 only dropped 0.19% and European indices minimally moved. The VIX merely fell 1.01% and commodities remained relatively stagnant while the dollar was virtually unchanged.

Though yesterday’s collaborative central bank aid provided a fleeting ray of light for markets, EU leaders are still budding heads over the ECB’s role. Merkel has been the most vocal in her opposition to having the ECB intervene in the bailout, advocating a hands-off approach and proposing instead that countries concentrate on getting their own budgets in order.

Nevertheless, ECB president Mario Draghi stressed the importance of stepping up to improve the fluidity of credit markets. With the EFSF lacking the necessary firepower to offer aid, the ECB might have to get its hands dirty more than planned. But will it be enough to save the Eurozone?

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Equity ETFs Go Bonkers Again – What’s Left In Store?

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

In an investment atmosphere seemingly devoid of any rational order, major indexes moved mountains today as the S&P 500 jumped 4.33% while European indices posted big gains as well. The dollar also depreciated slightly against the Euro to $1.34/Euro.

Notably, the VIX tanked to fall to 27.63. Also, the 10-year Treasury bumped up to a yield of 2.07%. However, we are by no means in risk off mode where we want to start adding on equity ETF exposure at an accelerated rate.

Today’s exuberance appears to largely be driven by a coordinated effort among major central banks – US, England, and Japan among others – to provide much needed short-term liquidity to European banks.

To do this, central banks lowered interest rates on dollar denominated loans so that the ECB could then more easily borrow and then channel those funds to major European banks, who heavily engage in dollar transactions that have become increasingly expensive amidst the current turmoil. There’s no denying that we’re in a danger zone with the extent of these emergency actions.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 11/29/2011

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

The markets as measured by the S&P 500 remained pretty much unchanged since last week’s report, with our portfolios moving only slightly.

Market direction has dictated for us to be predominantly in bond ETFs as the risk of equities being negatively affected by the developments in Europe has greatly increased. With no tangible solution to the debt crisis being on the table, I have to wonder how long major market  ETFs can remain at these levels.

Of course, any prospective good news out of Europe, whether sensible or not, will support the bullish scenario, but very likely only on a short-term basis.

Our domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) has inched back above the line into bullish territory by +1.01% after having dropped below it last Friday. This move is not sufficient yet to look for new exposure in equities to rebuild our very skinny portfolio positions.

Capital preservation remains my main theme during these times of great uncertainty.

Take a look at the latest update:

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ETFs Go Flat After a Huge Day – Are We In a State of Funk?

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Perhaps investors came to the realization that all is not well in Europe as markets simmered down. The S&P 500 inched up only 0.22% while Europe and Asia posted marginal gains as well. The dollar still remained at $1.33/Euro, and commodities bumped up a little.

Also, the VIX fell once again, dropping 4.64%, though still above the 30 level. Some risk has been shaved off, but we’re still in risk on mode. There’s plenty of volatility hanging around as Europe’s fate is up in the air. Equity ETFs simply aren’t very tempting at the moment in this type of environment.

Meanwhile, it looks like Europe will require serious help from the IMF as EFSF expansion plans have been faltering. However, there was a statement saying that the EFSF will insure 20-30% of investor losses and plans on intervening in markets next month. Unsure of whether they can leverage the EFSF to over $1 trillion, most European leaders concur that IMF assistance will be necessary to aid countries overburdened with debt.

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Big Surprise to the Upside for Major Market ETFs, But Not For Long

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

It was a surprisingly joyous day for equity ETFs as global markets rebounded from last week’s rough patch. The S&P 500 roared back, finishing up 2.92% while in Europe, the DAX had a huge day by rising 4.60%. However, the dollar remained at $1.33/Euro.

Regardless, I view today as a mere blip and that market pessimism will soon return. There’s still too much uncertainty to bring markets right back down as we witnessed last week. I mentioned Friday that the possibility of a shift back into rebound mode existed, and that is what happened. The markets were way oversold causing the bounce, which then was supported by short covering as Art Cashin points out in “Sitting on the Edge.”

While markets were in bliss today, the long-term outlook remains dour. Moody’s has not only forecasted a recession scenario in Europe with more ratings downgrades, but a higher probability of multiple countries defaulting that could led to a Eurozone breakup if the debt crisis continues at its current rate. This is not out of the question given the acceleration of contagion as evidenced by skyrocketing bond yields.

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