ETF Leaders And Laggards – For The Week Ending 7/8/2011

Ulli ETF Leaders & Laggards Contact

Here is a quick review of the past week’s winners and losers from my High Volume ETF Master list:

Euphoria towards a positive jobs report turned into a display of shock-and-awe, as the unemployment and job creation numbers were downright atrocious. Still, the major indexes gained slightly over the past four trading days.

Last week, I was surprised to see that Spain (EWP) was the leader with a weekly gain of +10.12%. Well, it’s feast or famine, as EWP is now leading this week’s laggards with a loss of -7.00%.

Uncertainty still plays a big role in my opinion, which explains why the top leaders came from gold related ETFs. The laggards, however, were Brazil and Europe; maybe that’s the reason for the discrepancy between our domestic TTI gaining and the international TTI losing for the past week.

Disclosure: Holdings in GLD

07-08-2011

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-updated-through-772011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, July 8, 2011

Lousy Jobs Data Stops Bulls In Their Tracks – Major Market ETFs Pull Back

Much anticipation had been built on the release of today’s jobs report. Even preliminary figures from ADP on Thursday raised hopes that there would be reason to cheer.

Then came reality, and the only cheering came from the bearish crowd, as the unemployment report turned out not to be only below expectations, it was downright horrible—a complete miss.

Unemployment rose to 9.2%, there was very little job growth (18,000 added), wages were not rising and hours worked remained flat. For sure, this will force many forecasters to reduce their projections for the second half. In other words, two years after the alleged recovery began, labor conditions have not improved at all.

The only surprise to me was that this day did not turn into a disaster. Yes, the markets pulled back but not as much as this report would have warranted. Why? Wall Street traders are an optimistic bunch, so they simply looked past this report and focused on the upcoming earnings season. Maybe there’s something to cheer about after all. Go figure…

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) provided a mixed picture, compared to last week, as the domestic one gained strength while the international one lost momentum. Here are today’s prices:

Domestic TTI: +4.54% (last week +3.67%)
International TTI: +1.26% (last week +1.72%)

This weakening on the international side has kept me from issuing a new ‘Buy’ for that arena despite the crossing of the trend line to the upside. To avoid an immediate whipsaw signal, I’d rather wait for more confirmation that upward momentum has indeed been restored before pulling the trigger.

Next week, we’ll be facing a host of economic reports along with the start of earnings season. Let’s hope there are some positives, otherwise, the only ones doing the cheering will be the bears.

Have a great week.

Ulli…

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Stefanie:

Q: Ulli: I am just starting to look at your portfolios and buy/sell parameters, but I would appreciate a definition of “sell” criteria like the “buy” explanation you gave recently.

A: Stefanie: The “Sell” is automatically determined by your trailing sell stops getting triggered. As such, they serve 2 purposes:

1. To limit your downside risk, if the markets head south right away, or

2. If a rally continues, they will lock in your profits when the inevitable turnaround occurs.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker For Friday, July 8, 2011

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-updated-through-772011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, July 8, 2011

Lousy Jobs Data Stops Bulls In Their Tracks – Major Market ETFs Pull Back

Much anticipation had been built on the release of today’s jobs report. Even preliminary figures from ADP on Thursday raised hopes that there would be reason to cheer.

Then came reality, and the only cheering came from the bearish crowd, as the unemployment report turned out not to be only below expectations, it was downright horrible—a complete miss.

Unemployment rose to 9.2%, there was very little job growth (18,000 added), wages were not rising and hours worked remained flat. For sure, this will force many forecasters to reduce their projections for the second half. In other words, two years after the alleged recovery began, labor conditions have not improved at all.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker – Updated Through 7/7/2011

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, July 7, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY— since 6/3/2009

As announced via a blog post, on 6/2/2009, the TTI triggered a buy signal with an effective date of 6/3/2009. We will use the 7% trailing stop loss of our positions as an exit point or the crossing of the trend line to the downside, whichever occurs first.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +4.61%.

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Market commentary/High Volume ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 7/6/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Upward market momentum and euphoria continued into last weekend causing several ETFs to move above the +20 HV Cutline listings and off the table. If you intend to follow those ETFs that are no longer listed, you now have to consult the weekly StatSheet (updated every Thursday), specifically the ETF Master List.

To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of 90 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 

While the markets have been meandering around the unchanged line this week, Gold ETFs have been shining brightly, which is clearly a sign that all is not well in terms of global balances along with the ongoing debt circus.

Some of this slowdown was evident, as some of the major ETFs moved only moderately:

IOO (World Stock) from +4 to +20

IEV (S&P Europe 350) from +6 to +15

EFA (Foreign Large Blend) from +4 to +13

EEB (Diversified Emerging Mkts) from -13 to +7

And remaining in the basement was BRF (Brazil Small Cap), which jumped from -15 to -8 along with ILF (Latin America), which improved from -18 to -6.

Take a look at the table:

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6 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 7/5/2011

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios, Uncategorized Contact

The market’s sharp rise last week affected all our ETF Model Portfolios in a positive way. While they did not move up as fast as the S&P 500 did, they also did not lose ground as quickly, when the markets declined 7 out of 8 weeks.

That has been my theme all along. When the major indexes were on a tear earlier this year, the S&P 500 raced ahead in terms of YTD performance by over 3% compared to some of our models. However, during the recent market decline, it trailed by over 3%; now it has again pulled ahead by a slight margin. 

Unless, you are a financial rollercoaster lover, you’re better off keeping a steady hand when it comes to the fluctuations of your portfolio – at least that is my preference.

Take a look at the changes of the past week:

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