ETF/No Load Fund Tracker For Friday, July 15, 2011

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-updated-through-7142011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, July 15, 2011

AGAINST THE WIND

The major market ETFs simply faced too many headwinds and, as a result, the S&P 500 lost 2.1% for the week after two weeks of gains.

No matter where you looked, the news was predominantly negative as Europe’s worsening debt crisis set a sour mood last Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, confusion reigned as Fed chief Bernanke, the big flip flopper, left the markets guessing as to future stimulus.

The Disciplined Investor put it best:

After Bernanke’s latest testimony, we may want to consider him the latest King of Spin for this economy.  Bernanke has successfully been able to destroy the US Dollar all while keeping a “Strong Dollar Policy”. He has also flip flopped so much on key subjects such as monetary policy that we are not so sure what he has planned next. He has kept Wall Street on their toes that is for sure. Let’s look at his latest testimony to see what we are talking about:

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker – Updated Through 7/14/2011

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, July 14, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY— since 6/3/2009

As announced via a blog post, on 6/2/2009, the TTI triggered a buy signal with an effective date of 6/3/2009. We will use the 7% trailing stop loss of our positions as an exit point or the crossing of the trend line to the downside, whichever occurs first.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +3.43%.

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Market Commentary – High Volume ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 7/13/2011

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With the S&P 500 losing over 1.5% since last week’s HV Cutline report, even the latest featured heavyweight ETFs succumbed to bearish forces and dropped back below the cutline (long-term trend line).

To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of 90 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations.

With global uncertainty having now become a part of the daily investment theme, weakness has become apparent, market rallies seem to be short lived and tend to have the feel of dead cat bounces.

The debt circus is alive and well and seems to include more participants by the day, at least on the European side of the pond while, domestically, we’re stuck fighting the debt ceiling battle. All that does not bode well for a smooth ride for equities, as the last week has shown.

The ETFs featured in the most recent report, have now tanked and moved below their respective trend lines:

IOO (World Stock) from +20 to -4

IEV (S&P Europe 350) from +15 to -14

EFA (Foreign Large Blend) from +13 to -11

EEB (Diversified Emerging Mkts) from +7 to -13

Take a look at the table:

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6 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 7/12/2011

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Despite the S&P 500’s -1.79% loss over the past week, our ETF Model Portfolios showed some interesting discrepancies. 3 of them actually managed to gain during that period, while the remaining 3 out of the 6 featured suffered slight losses, but still stayed ahead of the S&P 500.

On a YTD basis, nothing changed during this week, as the #3 portfolio remained in the top spot with +6.05%, which was closely followed by the #1 Trend Tracking Portfolio, which sports +5.55% and is steadily holding on to its second place.

Take a look at the changes of the past week:

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Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated as of 7/11/2011 – More Improvements

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Yesterday’s drubbing was a direct result of global uncertainties, especially in Europe, but also China’s sharp rise in inflation did nothing to soothe the nerves on Wall Street.

Many funds have been meandering around the cutline with no clear direction. While some momentum numbers have improved, the DrawDown figures (DD% column) leave a lot to be desired and are in many cases closer to triggering their trailing sell stop points than making new highs.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s ETF Cutline report, I am in the process of expanding the +20 listings to a range of up to +100. That will speed things up for you, if you are following specific funds, in that you will have all the data in one place without having to resort to the weekly StatSheet.

Here’s this week’s mutual fund cutline report:

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International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) Remains In Sell Mode

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After bouncing around its long-term trend line for the past couple of weeks, the International TTI (Trend Tracking Index) finally fell back below it by -0.88%. As I wrote previously, I had been holding back issuing a new ‘Buy’ for “broadly diversified international funds/ETFs” due to lack of follow through to the upside.

The goal was to avoid a whipsaw signal, which means a ‘Buy’ quickly followed by a ‘Sell.’ This is exactly what happened as more fallout from last Friday’s weak employment numbers, coupled with the battle over the U.S. debt ceiling and a worsening of the European debt crisis joined forces  and knocked the markets to the mat.

This triple punch combination took the starch out of any remaining upward momentum although, as the chart above shows, it was downhill all the way.

For the record, our domestic TTI dropped as well but remains on the bullish side of the trend line by +3.84%.

Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com