With the equity markets having slipped into bear market territory, and momentum numbers showing mostly negative figures, let’s look at bond and dividend ETFs from my High Volume Master list.
From the total of 51 ETFs that I track for this category, there are only 21 that qualify to be listed on this report, as their daily average volume exceeds $10 million.
Take a look:
In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 9/25/2011.
After visiting the top part of the 6-week trading range the prior week, the major market ETFs got caught in a global crossfire, sold off sharply and ended up visiting the lower end of the range, and then some, which only took 5 trading days to accomplish.
It was a total reversal, and the previous rally will now go down in history as a dead cat bounce.
Europe and its multitude of debt solutions, most of them band aid approaches, will be on the agenda next week, which simply means that we will have to live with more market volatility.
If you followed my sell stops rules, you should not have any equity exposure at this time with the possible exception of a couple of sector/country ETFs, or hedged positions.
This week, we covered the following:
In case you missed it, my first video on the subject of trend tracking with ETFs/no load mutual funds has been posted on the right side of this blog replacing my old bio.
To get the best viewing experience, please switch to full screen mode once the video starts running.
This is strictly an overview to make it easier for new readers to understand the general concept. However, it is also my first attempt in a planned educational video series that I hope to complete during the upcoming winter months.
The current plan calls for the subject of trend tracking to be dissected into maybe 15-20 video segments covering all aspects of trend tracking, trailing sell stops and disciplined investing in general.
The first in the series on the topic of “How to determine your risk tolerance” has been completed and will be posted shortly in a special section of this blog.
Watch for the announcement.
Here is a quick ETF review of the past week’s winners and losers from my High Volume ETF Master list:
With global markets in sharp sell-off mode all week, it’s no surprise to see a flight to safety, especially into U.S. Treasuries and the good old U.S. dollar. When all else fails, and uncertainty races to new highs, the long for dead declared dollar does not seem so bad after all.
It’s been my long-term belief that no matter how bad things are in the world, they will always be better here in the U.S., although it may take a global crisis for this realization to sink in.
ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, September 23, 2011
ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet
————————————————————-
THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:
————————————————————
Market Commentary
Friday, September 23, 2011
A COMATOSE BULL
What a difference a week makes. Last Friday, the major indexes had finished managing a tremendous rebound, only to see it evaporate, and then some, during the past 5 trading days, with the S&P 500 giving back -6.58%.
The interesting part during this world wide sell fest was that many big players were forced to liquidate positions to raise cash and to meet margin calls, which pulled the rug out from under the commodities sector.
Especially hard hit were gold and silver with gold falling 9.6% for the week and silver dropping an astonishing 26.3%. The flight to safety did include predominantly U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. For more specific market commentary, please review my daily blog entries.
Since gold and silver represent about 25% of our core holding PRPFX, that fund got clobbered at a rate of -6.23%, almost matching the S&P 500. PRPFX has now come off its high by -7.69%, which puts us into sell territory, a position that I have not seen with this fund since the middle of 2008.
Barring any huge rebound in the metals early next week, I will reduce our exposure to PRPFX; some holdings will be sold 100%, and others be reduced or possibly hedged, depending on a client’s risk tolerance.
I would have expected gold to be one of the few asset classes that are sought out during times of turmoil, but apparently not this week. We may see resurgence in gold in the future, but that is guess work at this time. Right now, the bulls are simply comatose.
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) confirm the move deeper into bear market territory, as today’s closing numbers show:
Domestic TTI: -0.32% (last week +2.25%)
International TTI: -14.07% (last week -9.37%)
While the Domestic TTI hovers in bear territory, it has only crossed the line by a fraction of a percentage. With the European debt situation showing no signs of improvement, it’s only a matter of time before a serious event takes place and further affects world markets.
That is the moment in time where I would expect gold to become the “uncertainty play” again. However, there is no guarantee that this will happen, as current events confirm to me that we indeed have entered unchartered territory.
Thus, the best rule I can share with you, if these lower market levels tempt you to do some bottom fishing: “If in doubt, stay out!” That goes right along with “I’d rather be out, wishing I was in, then being in, wishing I was out.”
Have a great week.
Ulli…
————————————————————-
READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK
All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:
http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php
A note from reader Americo:
Q: Ulli: What is the trailing stop for the fund PRPFX? I agree with you that it is a great fund for any situation.
A: Americo: Well, it’s good for “almost” any situation. The sell stop is 7% off its high since you bought it.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:
https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/
———————————————————
Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:
ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet
————————————————————-
THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:
————————————————————
Market Commentary
Friday, September 23, 2011
A COMATOSE BULL
What a difference a week makes. Last Friday, the major indexes had finished managing a tremendous rebound, only to see it evaporate, and then some, during the past 5 trading days, with the S&P 500 giving back -6.58%.
The interesting part during this world wide sell fest was that many big players were forced to liquidate positions to raise cash and to meet margin calls, which pulled the rug out from under the commodities sector.
Especially hard hit were gold and silver with gold falling 9.6% for the week and silver dropping an astonishing 26.3%. The flight to safety did include predominantly U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. For more specific market commentary, please review my daily blog entries.
Since gold and silver represent about 25% of our core holding PRPFX, that fund got clobbered at a rate of -6.23%, almost matching the S&P 500. PRPFX has now come off its high by -7.69%, which puts us into sell territory, a position that I have not seen with this fund since the middle of 2008.